Putin Learns The Price of Underestimating Obama

[Benton D Struckcheon]

Everyone underestimated him in 2008.
The Republicans figured they had the ACA beat in 2009, only to see it pass, to their impotent fury, in 2010.
Now Putin is finding out the hard way what it means to underestimate Obama.

Europe scrambles to break gas dependence on Russia, offers Ukraine military tie

Visa and Mastercard halted transactions for Rossiya bank. Mr Putin said defiantly that he would make sure his salary was transferred to a new account at Rossiya “first thing Monday morning”.
They also cut off SMP bank, co-owned by Mr Putin’s judo partner Arkady Rotenberg, though the bank itself was not named – evidence that US firms will not take any risks with US regulators...
Tim Ash, from Standard Bank, said Washington is determined to make Mr Putin pay for changing Europe’s borders by force, and will ratchet up “stealth sanctions” by regulatory muscle. “Foreign companies will have to be very careful who their partners in Russia are,” he said.
American agencies will probe deeper into the origin of funds, using money-laundering codes to tighten the noose. Mr Ash said the US will step up sanctions even if there is no direct Russian incursion into mainland Ukraine. Any attempt to destabilise the Ukrainian government will be punished. “The Kremlin has misread the Americans badly,” he said.

[William769]

1. Kick & recommended.

[Cha]

5. ..

[okaawhatever]

2. K & R nt

[Wellstone ruled]

3. He He,wait till next week.

Looks like the big Oil Shoe is about to drop. Putti will need a IMF loan in a couple weeks. This guy really stepped into a cow pie and it ain't coming of his shoes.

[adigal]

29. Will he get the loan? I don't recall where it comes from

I said last week, we need to stop buying oil from them. So glad Pres Obama heard me.

Also, that Visa and Mastercard stoppage - ouch!! That will hurt. I just hope any Americans in Russia get out ASAP.

[spanone]

4. k&r...

[Cali_Democrat]

6. Russia's stock market has been tanking lately.

Don't forget the US is working closely with the EU on this.

Putin's fan club is gonna be pissed!!!

[Cha]

7. Thanks for this article, Benton.. this

of course will not sit well with the Putinista Propaganda pushers.

From your link..

The South Stream pipeline intended to link the EU to Russia through the Black Sea by 2018 is now “dead”, according to sources in Brussels, hitting contractors close to Mr Putin. EU staff are to come up with plans to shield Europe from energy blackmail by Russia within 90 days, finding ways to prevent frontline states being picked off one by one. Ukraine’s premier, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, said in Brussels that the West must stop Russia deploying energy as a “new nuclear weapon".

So, are they still "laughing"?

[Benton D Struckcheon]

8. No, they're about to find out that sitting on top of a commodity everyone uses...

...hardly makes you invulnerable. Quite the opposite.
The definition of a commodity is that it can be easily substituted for by something else. Economists actually have a term, "commoditization", that describes this. From Merriam-Webster:

Commoditize: to render (a good or service) widely available and interchangeable with one provided by another company.

For "company", substitute "entity". The only leverage Russia had was that gas isn't easily transportable, so to the extent that natural gas is needed, they had a lock. But give an advanced set of economies enough of an incentive, and Europe is, in the aggregate, the most advanced set of economies on the planet, and they will find a way to substitute any commodity with any other, and if they have to do it fast, they will.
Putin is going to quickly find himself sitting on a vast pile of surplus gas. They're building pipelines to Asia, but it will take many years before Asia can fully take the place of Europe as a customer. And the help they would have gotten building that infrastructure from the West is no longer going to be forthcoming.

[Cha]

9. Yeah, EU sounds serious. thanks

[ProSense]

10. Has anyone mentioned that Kerry

is an expert in money laundering? I mean, he wrote the laws, and who can forget:

Whereas John Kerry has led difficult, sensitive and comprehensive investigations in the Senate on everything from the Bank of Credit and Commerce International and illegal money laundering to the Noriega regime in Panama;

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10022279458

[freshwest]

12. Thanks for the link, I'd forgotten that part of his work in recent years. n/t

[ProSense]

20. You're welcome. n/t

[JDPriestly]

71. Excellent point!

[Benton D Struckcheon]

24. It occurs to me that I should explain ...

... That I was agreeing with you they're not laughing anymore. Shoulda said "No, and...." for the first two words there.

[Cha]

28. That's funny.. when I wrote my reply I thought it was the other thing but,

later when I was running I was rethinking the post and thought.. I bet that's what he said "No".. about!

[tofuandbeer]

35. Hurray for running! ...sorry that's off topic. :)

[Cha]

36. That's okay, tofuandbeer.. it's

kicking the thread And "Hooray For Running".. Cheap Therapy!

[tofuandbeer]

37. +1

[Ikonoklast]

62. The pipeline for natgas from the Ohio, WV, and lower PA fields is proceeding at a furious pace.

It will hook to existing pipelines and terminate at the Cove Point MD port, where an LNG compressor station is to be built.

We will soon be exporting natgas to the EU, bet on it.

[BlueEye]

67. A good friend of mine who is an engineer is moving to WV next month...

To help with pipeline construction efforts there. It is remarkable to see. I am okay with it as long as it a) Is well regulated, b) provides safe, well-paying jobs, and c) is taxed appropriately. LNG could be the boost this economy has been badly in need of.

[4dsc]

70. LNG export is bad for the economy

Now why should we export our NG resources to anyone when in review of what has occurred with supplies this winter we as a nation would be facing much higher prices? I don't of anyone who would enjoy a doubling or more of NG prices if we have another hard winter and supplies were tight.

[freshwest]

81. Another well thought out post, thanks. n/t

[sheshe2]

31. Wait a second!

Wait, I thought, well I assumed, well, many here and in the GOP said....aaaah, that Russia was laughing in Obama's face. That he was a weak ass President, the sanctions were a joke, Putin laughed and laughed and laughed.

Really? They will never get it Cha. Not ever.

[Cha]

32. It made them all feel good for about

a day, she~

[NewJeffCT]

47. That's too complicated

for the news media to even mention. "Obama is weak" works much better.

[BillZBubb]

11. It is premature to suggest Putin has learned anything yet.

We can only hope that he will learn a very painful lesson along with all of those in Russia who backed his land grab.

Most of the Russian expansionists will live in a nationalistic bubble for a while. It will take some time for sanctions from the EU and US to bite. Putin, of course, will be insulated from any economic pain, but his supporters are going to pay a price.

Putin's popularity in Russia is going to take a Bushian path.

I do hope the President keeps finding ways to turn the screws on Putin.

[freshwest]

13. I'm still a bit doubtful, have read the link and will come back with some questions later. n/t

[Iliyah]

14. K & R

Last edited Fri Mar 21, 2014, 09:15 PM - Edit history (1)

Is it exxon oil company that putin granted to drill "baby" for oil in the arctic? The freaking arctic where its melting. Greedy sobs.

[kimbutgar]

15. Fox and the right wing idiots will be attacking Obama for this

How dare he disrupt their new hero Putin and his billionaires.

[Warren DeMontague]

16. Good.

[doc03]

17. He could freeze the assets of Severstal America

one of our biggest steel producers owned by Putin's multi-billionaire friend Alexey Mordashov.

[Auntie Bush]

18. So did the Republicans!

[1000words]

19. Bookmarking

Way too early to be declaring victory.

[ErikJ]

21. The Napolean wannabe forgot about that.

[seveneyes]

22. And that's what it's all about

Case closed.

[msanthrope]

23. Good. nt

[idendoit]

25. Vlad and Gazprom are getting filthy rich.

Europe has been sucking on that Russian pipe since 1984. Even if the big three say no, will smaller more dependent countries follow suit? All it takes is an "expression of concern" for ethnic Russians anywhere in the former Soviet and you may see a Lead Pipe Curtain descend. Without out even the threat of invasion.

[WinstonSmith4740]

26. More 3D Chess from Obama.

I think those of us on this side of the political aisle can take pride in the fact that Bush talked the talk, but Obama has walked the walk. He got Bin Laden, while Bush postured and bloviated. The wing-nuts argue that Putin invaded because Obama is weak. I think he invaded because after Junior did nothing about his invading Georgia, he figured "why not"?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/03/03/1281857/-Media-GOP-forget-Bush-s-feeble-response-to-Russia-Georgia-conflict

[cstanleytech]

30. "I think he invaded because after Junior did nothing about his invading Georgia"

Agreed plus dont forget Junior also weakened the US greatly with his wonder blunder of invading Iraq so it in essence forced Obama to take military action in assisting the Ukraine off the table for the most part.

[bravenak]

27. Good.

[1awake]

33. Yup, and now he's massing troops across the western boarder. nt

[Cha]

34. Whoa, I come back and it has 83 RECS!

Good!

[joshcryer]

38. Russia's idiotic leveraging of its gas led to this.

[Hekate]

39. But Sarah Palin says he's weak and wears mom jeans!

We shall see how this works, but in my book it beats the hell out of listening to the armchair generals and chicken hawks at home.

[Cha]

41. Have you seen this, Hekate?..

Jon Stewart: Fox News Pundits Obsessed With Shirtless Putin

Hilarious Vid at Link

[Rozlee]

42. Those people need to get their talking points in line.

First, they mocked him when he drank a beer with Professor Gates and the Cambridge cops, saying he was too 'effete' to be drinking a man's brew like beer. Of course, they also accused him of being a party animal in college who drank beer by the tank and toked like a chimney. They said he beat McCain at the debates because of his experience as a seasoned college debater in the debating team. But, they claim he can't say two words without a teleprompter. And they call him a thug and a gangster, then turn around and mock him saying he wears mom jeans. I don't know about you, but I can't see the Crips and Bloods having rumbles in mom jeans.

[onlyadream]

45. Yep

And they say he's weak and indecisive, but yet he rules like a king making unilateral decisions. Which is it?

[cherokeeprogressive]

40. Or put another way... Young Crimean Men Learn the Price of siding with Russia...

They're about to be conscripted, and sent to Chechnya.

Excellent outcome, FOR SOME. Russia gets Crimea, young Crimean men get uniforms.

Fair trade off.

[JDPriestly]

72. Russia "kills two birds with one stone."

He depletes Crimea of young men who could form an underground against the Russians if and when Crimeans realize that they should not accept Russian exploitation, and Russia gets cannon fodder in the forms of the sons and daughter of Crimea.

[nikto]

43. Obama could send AG Holder to Russia...

To bust Putin for smoking bud.











Putin is not from Wall st, so he's not too wealthy to bust.





Isn't that right, Eric?

[Demeter]

44. ah, no, that would be totally backward

as I will remind you repeatedly in the next 20 years...

Khrushchev's prophecy will be fulfilled by Putin:

Whether you like it or not, history is on our side. We will bury you!

Nikita Khrushchev


I once said, 'We will bury you,' and I got into trouble with it. Of course we will not bury you with a shovel. Your own working class will bury you.

Nikita Khrushchev

[KG]

46. crimea is russian and the most the world could do is some weenie 'sanctions'

as if putin cares some russians got their CCs cut off. boy, obama sure showed him a thing or two!

[Benton D Struckcheon]

48. Putin will care about that,

because it isolates large portions of his upper middle and upper classes from Europe. It's hard to vacation without a credit card.
Also, the ruble was hit hard; it's actually been falling for a while. This didn't help. Some companies are pulling out of borrowing in dollars, but they're finding that when they convert to rubles, the interest rates are higher because the Russian central bank had to raise rates to stem capital flight.
See here (you can read some articles free if you register): http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/9a2a85b6-b0dc-11e3-9f6f-00144feab7de.html
And all of this is just the beginning. As that article says, they're preparing to cut off one thing after another if this nonsense continues. The fall of the ruble will hit them the hardest, because that will seriously hurt their ability to pay for the stuff they import, and will hurt companies that have borrowed in dollars.
Capital flight was already a problem last year, and is actually an ongoing problem, because every Russian with wealth knows that they're just one false move away from having their assets seized by Putin. It's not going to get any better because of this.

[LittleBlue]

49. Wow, one bank can't use Visa or Mastercard

OP reads like parody. I'm sure Putin is begging to give back Crimea so that the customers at one bank can use their Mastercards again.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

50. If you don't understand how banking works,

you really shouldn't be posting foolishly. That is hardly the only effect.
Bank Rossiya can't transact internationally anymore; the credit cards are just the tip of that iceberg. That means it just went from being a useful financial intermediary for the Russian elite to being useless.
The fall of the ruble, which is ongoing, will affect all business done by all Russians, regardless of whether they do any international business, because it will raise the price of imported goods and services and make it much much harder to borrow in dollars.
It won't take long for all of this to have a pronounced effect on the Russian economy.

[LittleBlue]

51. lol I worked as a bank auditor

in the FDIC compliance unit. I know how they work. A Chinese bank was similarly sanctioned for completing transactions for Iran.

Nothing short of war will convince Putin to give back Ukraine now that it's annexed.

You write a lot but say nothing I don't already know.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

52. And Iran came to the table about their nukes...

...after their banks were sanctioned and isolated. See how that works?

[LittleBlue]

53. Iran isn't China

who never stopped trading oil with Iran the whole time sanctions were up.

Russia is too big for the Iran treatment. Iran has a small economy that easy to sanction because they have very little trade. Russia is different, that's why we are stuck sanctioning individuals rather than Russia as a whole.

You'll see.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

56. Yes, we will.

China is too big. Russia should be, but isn't, because of its dependency on hydrocarbons to finance itself; they need to be able to sell that abroad, and for that they need banks that can do international transactions. That of course is the same vulnerability Iran had.

[stevenleser]

55. Any handled poster on the internet can claim all kinds of stuff. The Russian markets seem concerned.

All transactions at those banks are prevented from going through the US. Any foreign or domestic institution that tries to route their transactions through the US is subject to severe penalties meaning most US and European institutions will summarily drop their business rather than risk a mistaken routing.

I would think someone familiar with banking, let alone an FDIC auditor, would understand the impact and pressure that would put on the Russian banks.

[LittleBlue]

57. For one bank, it's a big deal

assuming Putin doesn't use their federal reserve to prop it up.

Now that Crimea is annexed, Russia isn't giving it back. These sanctions are punitive, not coercive. The US wouldn't trade a bank's ability to use Mastercard for Alaska, in the same way Russia won't trade Crimea.

It's silly to think otherwise.

I'll bet my account that three years from now, no matter the sanctions, Crimea will still be a Russian state. You willing to put your account where your mouth is on this?

[stevenleser]

65. Actually, two banks, for now. The article makes it clear more regulatory measures are coming.

Now that the administration sees the shockwaves from just the efforts at these two banks, I'll bet more banks will be stealth targeted this way.

This is a disaster for Russia.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

75. Crimea's not going back to Ukraine, that's not the issue, as you well know.

The issue now is preventing him from doing anything else. He won't, because he wants to keep anything else from happening, such as Rosneft being cut off. As you well know.

[LittleBlue]

79. That's hilarious

Putin already said last week that he's not invading any other land in Ukraine. So the only verifiable thing we can measure is that Putin got Crimea without being thwarted by Obama.

Obama prevents Putin from doing something he already said he wouldn't do... "accomplishment". Kind of like not cutting SS benefits, or not going to war in Syria. All these actions he didn't take, and all these conflicts he thwarted that weren't happening anyway, are accomplishments.


LOL @ this logic.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

80. I smell straw.

Lots of burning straw.
Come back in a year, when Russia is still isolated and its economy has sunk into a more-or-less permanent state of stagnation as a result of the sanctions. Putin isn't giving Crimea back, but that hardly means he'll be happy. Ditto for his people.
I don't know whether he gets ousted at the end by his people, but any thought that Russia would be treated normally as long as he and his party is in power is now gone. Until they firmly repudiate Putin and the United Russia party, they will be pariahs.
That's the point. Laugh all you want. Crimea is gone, but so too is Russia.

[stevenleser]

54. Sorry, Vladimir Vladimirovich, Obama is not Bush and he is not going to offer milquetoast gestures

like 'W' did after Georgia and South Ossetia.

These measures are going to hurt and this is just the beginning.

[Botany]

58. And will this make the national news?

Ah, no because the PTB have sold the meme that President Obama is
weak and Putin is strong. Please remember that Obama finished top
of his class @ Harvard Law School and has surrounded himself w/ smart
men and women many of whom hold views that do not go along w/ the
President.

BTW Russia has spent billions in building an infrastructure to get natural
gas to western Europe and if "they" tell Putin that they don't need his gas
then Russia is in a world of hurt.

God is it nice to have a smart President.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

60. I might watch the Sunday gabfests too see how it's playing.

Don't usually as I like my waffles with syrup rather than BS, but I might make an exception tomorrow to see if they give credit where credit is due. I doubt it, but you never know...

[Botany]

61. I really can't watch them either

When you keep giving losers like Bill Kristol, Lindsey Graham, John McCain,
and Dick Cheney a platform from which they spread their bull shit I tend to
skip those things.

[WhiteTara]

59. Thank you Mr. President. nt

[hue]

63. Great OP! Nice to see Putin's egomaniac bubble burst! Sorry for the Russian's who will suffer!

[Fla Dem]

64. Did this big Americam/Russian Oil Conference take place in Russia this week?

Why Russia Wants US Oil Companies To Explore, Produce Its Prospects: Q&A With Sergio Millian Of Russian-American Chamber Of Commerce


By Meagan Clark
on February 26 2014 1:17 PM



The Russian-American Chamber of Commerce is the only American sponsor of the second annual Russian Oil and Gas Forum, which will take place from March 18 to March 20 in Moscow.


Sergio Millian, president of the chamber, is flying to Moscow early to prepare for the forum, stopping in Kiev, Ukraine, along the way. He talked to IBTimes Wednesday about the upcoming forum and why the Russian Oil Ministry wants U.S. technology to extract oil and gas in previously unreachable areas.

What’s on the agenda for the oil and gas forum?

It’s a three-day conference on Russian energy strategy and energy efficiency. Several weeks ago, we met with several top officials from the U.S. Department of Energy about the conference, and we have received some other relevant information about the successful cooperation.


Is Russia Preparing To Take Or Evacuate Crimea?

We hope that trade will increase between Russia and the U.S. We’re hoping to attract investment of about half a billion dollars into Russian exploration and investment into American refineries.

Who’s going to be at the forum?

Several companies. Chevron confirmed, Exxon Mobil confirmed participation in the forum. We’re talking to about 10 more companies. I’m flying this weekend to Moscow and will continue talking to them.

Exxon Mobil has a contract already and [represents] an example of successful cooperation with Russia. Rosneft is working with Exxon. They signed an official agreement two years ago for several billion dollars. They’re the most successful recent example, and really the only example, of Russian-American cooperation in oil.

Is the Russian government looking to U.S. companies to invest in oil exploration in Russia?

Yes, basically the Russian government for the second time … is hosting the oil and gas forum, which means that since it’s conducted by the [Russian] Minister of Energy, the idea is make sure [U.S. companies] understand the guidelines after 2013. Some projects will be discussed with substantial investments. American companies can benefit greatly.

Why does Russia’s energy ministry want help from American companies?

They would like to partner with the American companies because technologies from the shale revolution have been developed here, and most of the European countries don’t have this technology yet. They want to explore the Arctic Sea and Eastern Siberia.

American companies may not enter into any significant deals. They have to get an OK from the Russian government. This forum represents the platform where business execs and Russian officials can reach agreements.

more>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

http://www.ibtimes.com/why-russia-wants-us-oil-companies-explore-produce-its-prospects-qa-sergio-millian-russian-american

This meeting should have been cancelled. The Prez should ban all American companies from doing business with or aiding or supporting the Russian government.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

66. Don't know re this meeting,

but Putin needs to worry about Rosneft getting sanctioned, which would break that Arctic deal.
I'm sure Exxon is making the argument that China would surely step in if Exxon is forced out.

[riqster]

76. Exxon will be having reservations.

They and Shell were bidding on offshore exploration rights near Crimea, and Gazprom took the rights away when Russia annexed the penninsula.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

77. Denouement is uncertain.

Exxon and Shell may still be OK. That is in that eternal nexus between politics and money, where Putin is most comfy acting. I'm sure he'll find a fair solution, right?

[riqster]

78. Exxon wants access, so they likely won't run screaming away yet.

But they will hedge their bets henceforth, even more than they are already.

[libodem]

68. Yeah baby

Ya mess with someone's access to porn, and well, you might have just as well grabbed their last cigarette and crumpled it up or tossed out the drug stash. LOL.

[lastlib]

69. Obama may well be doing to Russia's economy what GWBush did to ours........

(Now there's a meme for our side!!)

[ProSense]

73. How Obama Crippled a Russian Bank with a Stroke of a Pen

How Obama Crippled a Russian Bank with a Stroke of a Pen
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024708736

[Cha]

74. Thank YOu!