The ultimate in Tit-for-Tat
Last edited Fri Apr 4, 2014, 02:29 PM - Edit history (7)
I somewhat admired the pure anti-escalation "tit-for-tat" strategy played yesterday by South Korea in (the equivalent of) a games theory exercise with North Korea.
North Korea was do live-fire exercises, throwing up a lot of artillery right near the borderline on the shore.
Some of the volleys went (probably on purpose, but it almost doesn't matter) into the ocean on the South's side of the border.
So South Korea fired some artillery shells into the water just over the same border, into North Korean ocean.
Boom. Splash.
Boom. Splash.
And that is how it is done. It sounds silly, like that emperor that ordered the river flogged to punish it for a flood, but that sort of hyper-literal rigidity is the safest strategy, really.
If you don't respond then the other side lacks information... where is your line? It will probably escalate to find out where that line is. Assuming you are not planning a sneak attack, you want them to know exactly what the deal is. Uncertainty and unpredictability are destabilizing.
If you respond in escalating fashion then it makes counter-escalation likelier. They may back down in the face of your escalation, but if they respond it will be in escalated fashion.
Tit-for-tat is probably the best strategy for avoiding escalation.
In games theory, tit-for-tat is to make your first move peaceful/cooperative, and thenceforth to mirror whatever the other side does. Walk softly, big stick, etc..
Everyone uses this in the spy-catching business. If you catch three spies operating out of someone's embassy you deport them. Then that country deports three of your embassy personnel, whether they are spies or not. It has to be kept symmetrical. Because any stepped escalation is prone to ramp itself up to breaking off diplomatic relations entirely.
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