So, You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent?

[Blue_Tires]

Last edited Wed Apr 2, 2014, 04:58 PM - Edit history (1)

The morning I met Elaine Rich, she was sitting at the kitchen table of her small town home in suburban Maryland trying to estimate refugee flows in Syria. It wasn't the only question she was considering; there were others:

Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile before May 10, 2014? Will Russian armed forces enter Kharkiv, Ukraine, by May 10? Rich's answers to these questions would eventually be evaluated by the intelligence community, but she didn't feel much pressure because this wasn't her full-time gig.

"I'm just a pharmacist," she said. "Nobody cares about me, nobody knows my name, I don't have a professional reputation at stake. And it's this anonymity which actually gives me freedom to make true forecasts."

Rich does make true forecasts; she is curiously good at predicting future world events. For the past three years, Rich and 3,000 other average people have been quietly making probability estimates about everything from Venezuelan gas subsidies to North Korean politics as part of the Good Judgment Project, an experiment put together by three well-known psychologists and some people inside the intelligence community.

According to one report, the predictions made by the Good Judgment Project are often better even than intelligence analysts with access to classified information, and many of the people involved in the project have been astonished by its success at making accurate predictions.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent?ft=1&f=1001

I don't know whether to be impressed or frightened...

[JimDandy]

1. In a few weeks they will be recruiting more forecasters

according to the NPR segment. Philip Tetlock, who wrote "Expert Political Judgement" helped start this project along with people in the intelligence community.

Might be interesting to apply and see how good you can forecast future events.

[NightWatcher]

2. I'm waiting for NASA's new So You Wanna Fly a Rocket program

I thought they hired pros for a reason. I don't want untrained people making guesses.

[Bandit]

3. I am not sure NASA even has any rockets, and they just severed ties with Russia.

[DavidDvorkin]

4. The Wisdom of the Crowd

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

[Blue_Tires]

5. Evidently, what makes it successful is the 'crowd'

Can bring in a fresh, unfiltered analysis which is less bogged down by bureaucracy, internal politics, and wanting to keep the boss happy...

[DavidDvorkin]

6. It's more than that, though

The famous case of Francis Galton at the county fair shows that there's more to it than bureaucracy, etc.

[joeybee12]

7. Great idea for a game show...

...as long as Jeff Foxworthy isn't the host.

[okaawhatever]

8. Very cool, very, very cool. nt