The African Ebola outbreak that keeps getting worse

[Recursion]

This is possibly of somewhat more immediate concern to those of us in the 3rd World, but I'm pretty sure mostly everybody on this board understands the importance of stuff like this.

Just to be clear: this is the largest ebola outbreak in history, and it has already crossed national boundaries.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2014/04/07/the-african-pandemic-that-keeps-getting-worse/?tid=hp_mm

It began early this year in the forested villages of southeast Guinea. For months, the infected went undiagnosed. It wasn’t until March 23 that the news finally hit the World Health Organization. And by then, Ebola had already claimed 29 lives, the organization reported in a one-paragraph press release.

Since then, the organization has dispatched nine additional updates on a ballooning outbreak that’s received modest notice in the West, but has sent waves of panic across the African continent.

...

On Sunday, after the number of dead topped 90 and Mali and Ghana recorded their first suspected cases of the disease, trouble began in remote villages.

A mob attacked an Ebola treatment center in Guinea, accusing it of infecting the town with disease, according to Reuters. In other villages, people stopped shaking hands.

Also...

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/04/guinea-ebola-patients-discharged-201447182348231330.html

Medical charity Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders) has said it has discharged a number of people in the West African nation of Guinea who have been receiving treatment for the Ebola virus, which has recently killed at least 95 people.

In a statement, MSF also said on Monday that its emergency teams were facing challenges in tackling the epidemic, with work currently suspended in one of its three Ebola treatment centres.

The charity is supporting the Ministry of Health in its attempts to stem the outbreak, which has seen 151 suspected cases to date, according to Guinean health officials.

In Macenta, in southeast Guinea, MSF said it had suspended its activities there after an incident where local people threw stones at buildings and vehicles, under the mistaken impression that the disease had been brought into the country by MSF.

Buckle up, people... in the worst case, it's a false alarm...

[JustAnotherGen]

1. Scary

One person gets on a train or a plane - and kaboom.

[CFLDem]

2. I doubt it will make it over here.

But it could spread rapidly throughout the african continent given the right conditions (and there's plenty for it to work with).

Could you imagine such a world...an Ebola security state would make the 9/11 security state look like pure liberty.

[darkangel218]

26. A patient has already been diagnosed with Ebola in Canada

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/man-critically-ill-in-saskatoon-after-travel-to-africa-1.2584762

[redqueen]

29. No, they suspected Ebola, they didn't diagnose it. Tests ruled it out.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/26/health/ebola-like-symptoms-in-canada-may-be-a-false-alarm.html?referrer=

[darkangel218]

34. Ahh ok, good.

Thanks for the link

[Marrah_G]

3. It's not airborne

Transmission comes from very close contact. It kills at too high a percentage and speed to become a pandemic. These happen from time to time and always will because it is a crossover from animals. Outbreaks start and usually stay within small villages (the sick transmitting to people caring for them) and occasionally in hospitals that treat the patients without proper precautions. Fortunately the WHO and MSF are really good at handling these outbreaks and the staff are really courageous.

Influenza is a far scarier virus.

[CFLDem]

5. I've read that it is airborne

in immediate area of infected individuals here.

[Marrah_G]

6. It is not airborne

That is a tabloid source.

[CFLDem]

7. It is airborne in close quarters.

According to this tabloid.

[Marrah_G]

8. It has never been airborne in humans

A form of it has been airborne in monkeys. To date there has been no airborne transmission among humans.

The canadian researchers found that some pigs could transmit through a wire barrier to monkeys..probably through large aerosol droplets.

[CFLDem]

9. Well when it does become airborne

it will be horrible.

And Ken Ham will still be in denial.

[Marrah_G]

10. I had to look up Ken Ham..lol

Yes- creationists will always deny.

Hopefully Ebola never becomes airborne. The outbreaks are so relatively small that it gives the virus alot less chance to mutate then say the influenza family of viruses. The Flu of 1918 had a much smaller deathrate (maybe 15%) but had the ability to spread easily and took it's time killing the patient, allowing for more transmission often before the person showed symptoms.

I want to say that I am not trying to make light of the situation. Ebola is a horrible thing. It is scary. But some of the things that make it so scary are also the things that make it far more manageable. It's high death rate, the speed of exposure to symptoms and the way in which it crosses over to humans (through hunting bush meat).

After losing a friend to swine flu I started reading every book I could get my hands on regarding viruses, past, present future. I have to say that things like Sars and the Flu scare the heck out of me alot more then ebola after learning more about the viruses and how things transmit, mutate, and spread. The Hot Zone was frightening, but in the large scope of things, ebola is a VERY rare virus that happens under very specific conditions.

If this sort of thing interests you, one of my favorite books is one called "Spillover", also available as an audiobook.

[DiverDave]

15. The thought of ebola aerosol is very scary.

The Spanish flu comes to mind.
If it ever mutates to airborne, the human race is in trouble.
90% mortality in a flu scenario?
I doubt humanity would survive.

[Marrah_G]

16. actually the 90 % mortality rate makes it harder to become a pandemic

Killing off all the hosts very quickly leaves the virus no where to go, to spread, which is what it wants to do. 90% kills itself off too quickly. The slower a virus kills and a more moderate kill rate makes a virus much more lethal. It's one of the reasons that HIV has been able to spread as it has. Takes a long time to show any symptoms of AIDS and in the mean time the patient is spreading it without knowing they are even sick. Imagine AIDS spreading out of the jungle before a time where we could test for HIV or any other virus.

It's such a fascinating topic.

I wash my hands more

[FarCenter]

23. During what part of the incubation period is the patient contagious?

The average time between contracting the infection and the onset of symptoms is 13 days, but can be as long as 25 days.

A high mortality rate is no bar to spreading if patients are contagious before they are clearly symptomatic. AIDS is an example of a hard to get, high mortality rate disease that has enjoyed a considerable spread, mainly due to contagion during a very long incubation period.

[B2G]

25. They are infectious from the moment the virus enters their bodies

But it can take up to 21 days to show symptoms.

"People are infectious as long as their blood and secretions contain the virus. Ebola virus was isolated from semen 61 days after onset of illness in a man who was infected in a laboratory.

The incubation period, that is, the time interval from infection with the virus to onset of symptoms, is 2 to 21 days."


http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/

[Marrah_G]

27. I believe it is usually on the shorter side of the timeline

Most of the time the transmission comes from the close bodily fluid contact created when caring for a relative or patient during illness or in preparation for burial.

Is it a bad disease? yes. Is it going to be the next pandemic? probably not.

It's scary. It's horrific. But I think most virologists would tell you that it is not the type of virus that gives them apocalyptic nightmares.

I wanted to add another book to the list: "No time to lose" by Peter Piot

[B2G]

30. This is distrubing though

"Ebola virus was isolated from semen 61 days after onset of illness in a man who was infected in a laboratory."

[Marrah_G]

31. Yes it is

[CFLDem]

20. Thanks for the reference!

I will check it out.

[Marrah_G]

21. i have a list of books

PM me if you like that one and decide to dig further.

[haele]

11. I was listening offhandedly to a BBC report; some health minister thought it might be fruit bats.

Fruit bats are apparently immune to Ebola, but apparently last month, one was found to be carrying it, and bats can have a wide range.
The supposition was made due to the incidence of a farmer or hunter out in the back country coming down with it while no one else or no other animals in the area showed symtoms of it. They could come up with no other explaination as to why he got sick.

This was one of the BBC World News snippets on NPR over the weekend; theories could have changed, but this can be a reasonable supposition considering the sudden wide spread of the viris across that area of Africa.

Haele

[Marrah_G]

12. They have been trying to find the resevoir host for a long time

It's just not an easy thing to do. Bats are known for being hosts to many different viruses. But even if they find the reservoir it doesn't make stopping it any easier. They finally found the reservoir for HIV after a very long search. You can't get rid of all the bats, shouldn't get rid of all the bats. Best hope is to find some sort of vaccine eventually and discourage people from eating bush meat (not any easy thing in poor countries) and to teach people how to take the proper precautions (again, not easy in a place where people hunt to live).

[Laffy Kat]

28. Bats are one vector but there may be others yet undiscovered.

It's fascinating and terrifying. For those interested, Richard Preston's "The Hot Zone".

[SQUEE]

4. There have been at least 4 deadlier outbreaks

And many others with higher fatality rates.
This is worrisome, but Ebola is far down on the list of candidates for the next big pandemic, it is fairly hard to pass, and has an incredibly fast burn rate.
the capitol of Guinea has over 2 million people in it, crowded and with far less medical and public sanitation infrastructure, yet less than 10 have died.
This is tragic for those who are infected and thier families as well as for the economy of the region, but it is also a perfect case of Media fear mongering.

[lapislzi]

14. The burn rate is the only thing that it has going for it, relatively speaking.

If the burn rate slows in inverse relation to lethality, you're going to have more sick people on the move. Either way, it's a public health nightmare even for a developed country.

[seveneyes]

13. Mobs attacking Ebola treatment centers in Guinea

Do these villages or towns have leaders or elders than can educates the mobs? It would be a good idea to inform them that the volunteers are there to help, not harm them. Also let them know that close contact with infected people is risky too. Education might stop a lot of the spreading of sickness.

[dembotoz]

17. they kinda remind me of the anti vax crowd in this country

throw in the anti evolution fundie dimwits and shit
we

are


screwed


time to head to the survival shelter

[Marrah_G]

18. It's ignorance and panic, never a good combination

Reminds me of Uganda closing the lab researching HIV because it was doing gay research....... Ignorance and fear cause humans to do stupid things.

[lapislzi]

19. Add to that you're messing with people's burial customs

People accustomed to handling and washing their dead do not like it when they are told by westerners that they cannot perform these rituals.

You can call it ignorance and superstition, which to some degree it is, but imagine if you were told by a foreigner that you could not bury your loved one, and you only have a sketchy understanding of why.

[Marrah_G]

22. It is both ignorance and superstition, sadly

And I don't mean that in an offensive manner (like willful ignorance). People have been taught customs and beliefs and have very little science education to counter any of it. It's just such a shame to see people lashing out at those trying to help them because they don't really understand that they are trying to help them. I don't blame them, however, in the same way I do when people here in the US are blind to science, preferring ignorance and fear to facts.

During one of the first outbreaks just the color of the biohazard suits was a taboo and the workers didn't realize it. Little things like that are very real to people living in more primitive conditions.

The WHO and doctors without borders has done so much to try and educate people in the very worst of circumstances...they really are heroes.

[FarCenter]

24. WHO: Ebola outbreak among 'most challenging'

World Health Organisation says deadly virus still spreading in West African nations, as epidemic's death toll hits 111.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/04/who-ebola-outbreak-among-most-challenging-201448167108213.html

[Warpy]

32. The species jump is occurring exactly like HIV did

and that's through the handling of infected bush meat, usually our close relatives among monkeys. It's a blood and body fluid borne disease that spreads like wildfire because people sick with Ebola produce copious blood and body fluids. It's also transmitted by ignorance, terrified people fleeing an outbreak area, thinking they can outrun the infection when they've been exposed.

The only way to contain it in a city is to close the markets and enforce a total curfew. This is extremely problematic in a country where people don't have in home water or stored food.

This is likely to get a lot worse before it gets any better. If it starts spreading through our species, we can expect 7 billion people on the planet to decrease to about 630 million, the mortality rate is 90% even with treatment.

[Squinch]

33. Kick. I hate to see another two countries added to the outbreak distribution.

This is pretty terrifying.

Thanks for the information.