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Midterm Silver Lining: Dems Could Beat GOP On Guv Races
Midterm Silver Lining: Dems Could Beat GOP On Guv Races
Daniel Strauss – April 11, 2014, 6:00 AM
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Earlier in the week the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling survey polled five governor's races on behalf of MoveOn.org. The pollster found in those five races (Maine, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Florida) Democrats lead the Republican governor. In Arkansas, a new Talk Business-Hendrix College Poll also found Democrat Mike Ross ever so slightly leading Republican Mike Ross in the gubernatorial race, 44 percent to 43 percent.
Currently, Republicans control 29 governor's mansions while Democrats control 21. Although Democrats seem unlikely to take control the majority of governor's mansions in the 2014 election cycle, they increasing look likely to make gains in a number of gubernatorial races and move closer to an even split with Republicans.
About a week earlier, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics released a new analysis on the outlook for the 2014 election cycle. For the governor's races the analysis said to expect a "modest net Democratic gain of one to three governors' mansions." Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik cited Pennsylvania, Maine, Florida, and possibly Arkansas as possible races where a Republican incumbent governor would be replaced with a Democrat.
Kondik told TPM that it's an even split among the six most competitive races: Pennsylvania, Maine, and Florida all have Republican governors while Arkansas, Illinois, and Connecticut have Democratic ones. But, Kondik added, the "the difference is that the three Republican seats are in more danger than the Democratic ones."
"It's like the opposite of the Senate, the Republicans have a lot of places to defend because this set of governors was last contested in 2010," Kondik said. "Whereas, in the Senate this map was contested in 2008 so the Democrats have a lot to defend."
more...
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/midterm-silver-lining-dems-could-beat-gop-on-governorships