Georgia Poll May Give GOP Pause

[babylonsister]

YES!!!

Georgia Poll May Give GOP Pause
3:04 pm ET
Apr 22, 2014

By
Cameron McWhirter



ATLANTA – The GOP dominates Georgia politics, but a new poll may give its leaders reason to worry.

Republicans control the legislature and hold every statewide office, as well as both U.S. Senate seats and nine of the 14 U.S. House seats. The state’s demographics, however, have been changing, with more black and Hispanic voters, who generally favor Democrats, moving here in recent years. An open Senate seat and a gubernatorial election this year will test whether the Peach State is in political transition.

Georgia College & State University, in Milledgeville, now has released a “State of the State” poll that asked 500 adults across the state a range of questions.

When asked which party they trusted most to lead the state in the next four years, 40.2% chose the Democratic Party while 36.9% chose the GOP. More than 15% chose other parties and 7.6% didn’t give an answer.

“You could read that as a response to a party that has been dominating and maybe we are getting close to shifting,” said Costas Spirou, who is chairman of the college’s Department of Government and Sociology.

About 51% of whites polled said they trusted the Republican Party, and only 24.6% of whites trusted the Democratic Party. But 77.9% of blacks supported the Democrats, and only 9.3% of blacks backed the GOP. Hispanic voters, a fast-growing part of the Georgia electorate, were split, with 30.4% backing the GOP and 29.9% backing the Democratic Party. Almost 40% of Hispanics polled supported third parties.

more...

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/04/22/georgia-poll-may-give-gop-pause/

[xfundy]

1. Of course,

the Repukes will probably claim the survey is flawed, librul, etc. It's one of their industries.

[gratuitous]

2. Look for more voter ID laws

Gotta make sure the wrong sort of people don't go to the polls and start voting like it's their right or something. And if that fails, the wily Republicans will just sequester all the Democratic votes to guarantee them four or five House seats by overwhelming margins whilst the majority of seats go to Republicans by snappy 51-49 margins.

[davidpdx]

19. Good point

The GOP is pretty good making last minute changes to keep those who they wont' want to vote from voting. We have a real shot at winning the senate seat in Georgia. It may help us keep the Senate if we do.

[GeoWilliam750]

21. Seems there was a post the other day

About Georgia making it much more difficult to get a drivers license renewed, and thus more difficult to have a valid ID.

Not only would it make it more difficult to vote, it would make it more difficult to work it would seem.

[greymattermom]

27. I just got a Georgia license

I brought my passport. Some very rich person on our side should help folks in certain counties, maybe Gwinett and DeKalb, get passports. They're good for 10 years. Another easier easy way to get a birth certificate would help too. I ended up needing a passport to get a valid plate for my car when I moved. I had to prove that I am a US citizen to get a peachy plate. Yep, true that.

[GeoWilliam750]

33. Sometimes it seems

That the Republicans are trying to establish apartheid in America; or maybe they are just trying to turn us into Russia, Mexico or Pakistan.

[MissMillie]

22. that was my first reaction as well

that and gerrymandering

[Cali_Democrat]

24. Nailed it

Republicans despise democracy.

[Tom Ripley]

29. +1000

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. Again, this shouldn't be surprising. Black and Hispanic Americans...

...and most recently East Asian immigrants who favor the Democrats are locating to the South.

The old bigots will eventually die off. Not happening fast enough for my liking, though.

Correction: black and Hispanic Americans have always held large populations in the South, but not enough of us have voted in midterm elections in recent years. I think that's changing since our big mistake in 2010. At least I hope so.

[cthulu2016]

4. I strongly doubt that conclusion from the evidence

It seems likely that a big chunk of the state is further right than he Republican Party and very few are further left than the Democratic Party, resulting in one seemingly anomalous line in a poll.

But looking at the other data, the black Dem support is nothing special and the Hispanic Dem support is kind of weak, so where is this Dem favoring majority hidden? Among the white people?

Dems are a plurality choice, not a majority, and it would be irresponsible to blithely assume the 24% who picked neither are equally likely to vote R or Dem in real elections.

Is there something to support the idea of a Dem plurality actually being a Dem majority? Conversely, is there evidence to argue against it?

The fact that almost every elected official in the state is a Republican is evidence against a hidden Dem majority. Is there comparable evidence of the existence of such a hidden majority?

If not, then one must consider the fact that millions of Republicans in the south consider themselves members of *nonexistent* political parties (while voting Republican 100%), and consider that the question may not, in contemporary Georgia, be a neutral one where left-overs split 50-50 on election day.

That does not mean that Dems are not advancing in Georgia. I think we are. And it doesn't mean a Georgia Dem majority won't develop going forward. It may well. Just commenting on the present.

[Cha]

5. Brilliant! Here's another poll for ya, babsis~

Greg Sargent ✔ @ThePlumLineGS
Follow
POLL: Pro-Ocare Gov Beshear approval at 56-36; anti-Medicaid expansion Gov Jindal at 40-54: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/04/23/morning-plum-conventional-wisdom-about-2014-takes-another-hit/ …
3:13 AM - 23 Apr 2014
Morning Plum: Conventional wisdom about 2014 takes another hit
New polls show that red state Senate Dems are not dead and buried just yet.
Washington Post @washingtonpost

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TOD

[babylonsister]

9. Love it, thanks! nt

[n2doc]

6. I hope people are waking up

Over a decade on uncontested Repub rule and things never get better, only worse. Taxes never go down for the 99%, roads get worse, schools and Universities get worse.

[AlbertCat]

7. So what.

GERRYMANDERING

[Timez Squarez]

11. Gerrymandering CAN be defeated.

Just throwing the name out doesn't mean shit when there are thousands, nay, millions of angry voters ALL over the places that were once deemed very safe R district, now make it extremely competitive this fall.

[Martin Eden]

8. Sounds like they need to ramp up their voter suppression efforts

[sheshe2]

10. Go Georgia! nt

[BronxBoy]

12. Progressive minded Whites....

Are also in the mix. Still a lot of bridges to cross but there is hope down here

[babylonsister]

13. BronxBoy...

I live 'down here' also, and I'm a LI girl. And I have hope!

[BronxBoy]

14. Bayshore here

[babylonsister]

15. No WAY!

Guess where I come from? Oak Beach to be specific. Nice to know this!

[GeoWilliam750]

34. My latest experience with a Georgian

Does not leave me optimistic about the possibilities for decency and rationality.

That is, of course, a highly scientific sample of one, although it is interesting to observe in myself how it pre-disposes me towards the group as a whole. I now have to conciously remember to maintain an open mind.

[BronxBoy]

36. It can seem pretty grim down here at times

In fact, I was riding with someone the other day and he said that he doesn't like Carter's chances because not too many people know him and too many of those simply refer to him as the grandson of the worst president the country's ever had

I get it. But there are some really optimistic things going on that bode well for the future. We ain't going to win over the south overnight but we can do it

[GeoWilliam750]

38. I wish you every success

Fight the good fight and...

GET OUT THE VOTE!!!

[BronxBoy]

39. I will

And thanks for keeping an open mind. In the short term, some ugly stuff may rear its head but long term, there's at least the opportunity to be heard and change minds

[Liberal_in_LA]

16. good

[Stevepol]

17. Correct if I'm wrong

but I seem to remember that GA wasn't totally Republican until 2002 when Diebold took over the counting of the vote. And was it true that the pre-election polling before the 2002 election had the Dem governor and Max Cleland, a popular Dem Senator comfortably leading in their races.

I might also point out a fact that has not been reported in the US press: in 2009 Germany's highest court on constitutional matters ruled that counting votes by an electronic voting machine was undemocratic. The average voter has to be able to understand how the vote can be recounted or audited fairly. Germany no longer uses electronic vote counting because to do so would mean, in other words, they are no longer a democracy.

When the vote is counted in total secrecy without the possibility of a fair and understandable recount or audit, IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DEMOCRACY.

Here's a link: http://www.opednews.com/articles/Germany-bans-computerized-by-Paul-Lehto-090303-583.html

[demwing]

18. I'm surprised Hispanics favor the GOP 30/29

Sure its a statistical dead heat, but how did it get so close?

Could there be a high ratio of Cubans in Georgia, just like in Florida?

Anyone have any clues?

[Eleanors38]

40. GWB, IIRC, polled mid-40% in Texas, largely Mexican

American. Florida's Puerto Rican community went heavily for Obama. Hispanics are a diverse lot.

[Grins]

20. Tick-tock, Tick-tock, Tick-tock....

It's coming.

[YOHABLO]

23. What GA needs is a strong African American to run for Gov. !!

I think GA is the next state to go blue or perhaps very purple. Problem is we have 600,000 people within the metro Atlanta area who are eligible to vote but simply are not registered. That is where progressives need to focus. We have Michelle Nunn, daughter of Sam Nunn, running for the senate, and Jason Carter, running for governor. I could only hope that we could finally get some Democrats back in the game here in GA. I guess I will vote and cross my fingers that people are waking up. Perhaps because of Nathan Deal, our present governor, turning down Medicaid expansion will make the difference this voting cycle .. fingers crossed folks.

[BronxBoy]

37. If the tide is going to turn....

I think it will be a white, somewhat progressive candidate, who can straddle the edges of the conservative and liberal blocs here in the state. And I believe agriculture will play a large part in making this happen

[cynzke]

25. Prefered vs. Actual. There is hope....

but there is also concern as to who/whom those 15% percent who chose other parties will actually vote for in November, if their preferred party candidates are not on the ballot.

[Laelth]

26. It won't be long before Georgia is blue. k&r n/t

-Laelth

[Glitterati]

28. Blue AGAIN

Let's not forget that the Democrats in Georgia held the majority in the State houses until 2002. For 125 years!

I love how everyone manages to forget that fact.

Not to mention the fact that the Republicans never WON the State Senate - the Democrats GAVE IT AWAY by allowing 4 Dems to change parties days after running and getting elected as Democrats.

[GoCubsGo]

30. Voter suppression, new laws restricting abortion, guns, guns everywhere...

Can't say I'm surprised. Now that they get to see what complete GOP rule is really like, many of them are realizing it's not all they thought it would be.

[toby jo]

31. This is good, but I'm tired of the color lines. I wish it was because

it's become obvious our policies are better.

[KamaAina]

32. More than 15% chose other parties?

Methinks that would be more likely to be the Tea Party or the Libertarians rather than the Greens.

[Erose999]

35. There are no "3rd parties" in Georgia. There are a vocal minority of PaulBot asswipes who pitch

a big fit at the GOP conventions, but thats about it.