Poll: Rahm re-election on ropes; voters say no better than Daley

[n2doc]

FRAN SPIELMAN

Only one in five Chicago voters credit Mayor Rahm Emanuel with doing a better job of running the city than Richard M. Daley did, and only 29 percent would support him if the mayoral election were held today.

Those are the results of a new poll conducted for Early & Often, the Chicago Sun-Times’ political portal. The telephone survey of 511 registered Chicago voters who said they were “very likely” to go to the polls on Feb. 24 was conducted Wednesday by the firm of McKeon & Associates.

“Right now, Rahm is not connecting. If he doesn’t do that, he’s gonna lose,” McKeon said.

Emanuel is raising campaign cash at a frenzied pace — with more than $7 million in the bank already and former President Bill Clinton headlining a mega-fundraiser next month — in hopes of scaring off serious challengers.

more

http://politics.suntimes.com/article/chicago/poll-rahm-re-election-ropes-voters-say-no-better-daley/sat-05102014-323pm

[DonCoquixote]

1. oh shit

please tell me he is not gonna be Hillary's veep

[Jefferson23]

2. lol, let's hope not. n/t

[DURHAM D]

6. Never

She is the one who got him fired from the White House because he was running his own (not the President's) agenda. Why did you think he endorsed Obama during the primary?

[former9thward]

18. He endorsed Obama because Emanuel is part of the Daley machine as was Obama.

Which is why every elected politician in Chicago endorsed Obama. It had nothing to do with his relationship with Hillary.

[ieoeja]

31. All 3 facts you cite are mostly incorrect.

1. Obama was never part of the Daley machine.
2. Rahm joined the Daley machine, but got his start as part of the Clinton gang, not as a Chicago politician.
3. Rahm did not endorse Obama during the primary.

He was probably the only elected Chicago politician who did not endorse Obama. And you don't need a Machine to figure this one out. What elected politician from Chicago would NOT endorse the candidate from Chicago (other than Rahm)?

Rahm waited until the primary was over before endorsing Obama because he owed Clinton.

Everyone keeps saying Hillary does not see it that way. According to all the reports, Hillary saw his remaining neutral as a betrayal instead of as tacit support of her. Not too bright on her part, if true. You know Rahm had to be under tremendous pressure to endorse the hometown team. Staying out of it was doing her quite the favor.

-------------------------

Obama was initiated into politics by the anti-Daley reformers. Daley used gerrymandering to marginalize the Liberal/Progressive reformers. While this gave the reformers an easy win in certain locales, it kept them away from most of the city. And this is exactly from whence Obama came.

It turned out Obama was not anti-Daley. But he didn't join Daley's gang either. He pretty much remained neutral on that fight. In fact, he preferred hanging out with downstate legislators to hanging out with Daley's Chicago delegation.

In 2004, Daley endorsed nobody for the Senate seat because it included too many people with whom he was connected.

-------------------------

It wasn't until the 2008 election that Obama and the Daley's became tight political allies. Obama hired the Mayor's brother. Not just because they had a Chicago connection, but also we have to remember that when Al Gore fell behind to W late in the 2000 election, Gore hired that very same Daley to rescue his campaign. And he succeeded. Hiring him was a slam dunk decision.

-------------------------

Obama never did hop a ride on the Daley bandwagon. They jumped on his. By invitation, of couse. But it was Obama's bandwagon, not their machine.

[former9thward]

40. Nice alternative history.

But I was in Chicago politics during those years so I know better. Obama ran against the Daley machine in 2000 when he ran against Rush. Rush crushed Obama thanks to Daley's help. Obama then went, hat in hand, to the 5th floor of City Hall. He promised never to speak against Daley again if he would have Daley's support in the future. Obama kept his word and never spoke against corruption in the machine again.

In 2004 Daley's agents, Axelrod and crew, got private court records unsealed and took out the main Republican running, Jack Ryan, for the Senate. In the primary they did the same thing and took out the main Democrat, Blair Hull, and Obama was the only man left standing. Daley did not need to "endorse" anyone when there are no credible opponents left.

After Obama was elected he appointed machine people to chief of staff and the cabinet. You can write alternative histories for people on DU who don't know better but it won't fly with anyone involved in Chicago politics.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

41. Jesus Christ....

Does DU have a direct line to Fox News these day?

I've always used "Obama is part of the Daley Machine" as a quick litmus test to determine if a person knows shit from shinola. If you think Obama was part of the Daley Machine, you don't.

You post is quite correct - Obama is a latter-day member of the Club, and it's still not the coziest of relationships.

[former9thward]

43. You don't know Chicago politics.

Stick with Milwaukee. Maybe you know something that is happening up there.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

44. Nice bald-faced assertion

that carries zero weight and zero credibility.

Let's start with the fact that it was the Chicago Tribune that initiated and pursued the lawsuit to get Jack Ryan's divorce records. I've been trying to figure out how David Axelrod fit in, and I was finally able to find a source for that information

Free Republic.

So, yeah. Sure. Whatever.

[former9thward]

47. I guess you don't know Axelrod was a columnist for the Tribune.

Again, people involved in Chicago politics know the story. Axelrod used his contacts at both the Tribune and the Sun-Times to pressure the papers to file lawsuits to unseal court records. He used machine employees at the court house to find the records. But believe the fantasies you want. Please show a quote, made after Obama's defeat in 2000 to the Daleyites, where he criticized corruption in Chicago. This during a period where Daley lieutenants were going to jail so often people stopped reading about it.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

48. Oh dear....

To start on a different point, Mr. I-Know-Everything-About-Chicago-Politics, you stated elsewhere in this thread that there are no announced candidates against Rahm. There are at least three that I know of - Amara Enyia, Robert Shaw, and Fredrick Collins. So pretty much off the bat your bona fides as someone who know shit from shinola about Chicago politics is pretty much on thin ice.

You know who didn't blame Obama (or Axelrod) for the Jack Ryan debacle? Jack Ryan. Ryan knew (as did just about everybody in Chicago except, it would appear, you) that Ryan was being filleted by his own party. Axelrod was a former employee of the Tribune who had been gone for nearly ten years -- he put pressure on them, you say? Please. Please tell me what sort of pressure David Axelrod brought to bear on a multi-billion dollar media conglomerate on behalf of a barely-known State Senator.

By the way Mr. I-Know-Everything-About-Chicago-Politics, it might interest you to know that questions about Ryan's divorce papers started flying during the Republican Primary, but it wasn't until after Ryan won the primary and become the Republican candidate that the Tribune and WLS-TV (I don't know how you decided the Sun-Times was involved) went to court to obtain the documents. So it wasn't like this was some deep, dark secret.

I have to stress (again) that the only place I find ANYONE blaming the Obama campaign (which was ahead of Ryan by double digits by the way) for the Ryan scandal are Free Republic and other hard-right conspiracy websites.

You lie down with dogs, you wake up with fleas.

[former9thward]

49. Funny how those outside of Chicago claim to know everything going on there.

Based on reading articles by people not from Chicago.

When I said no one had announced against Emanuel I meant no one serious. The people you mentioned would get 5% of the vote combined. The fact you mention them means you don't have a clue about Chicago. It is also humorous that you think the Daley machine has no influence with companies in Chicago no matter how large. Everyone from Chicago reading that is doing a lol.

Unlike you, I don't read RW websites. I was there and participated in Chicago politics for 30 years including one elective office. I was hoping you would find me a quote from Obama criticizing the Daley machine and corruption in Chicago post 2000. Of course I knew you would not because there is none.

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

51. Have you ever actually visited Chicago?

Big body of water to the east? Lovable but infuriatingly inept baseball team to the north? Big shoulders? Etc., etc., etc.? Stop me if any of this sounds even vaguely familiar.

You said that Obama lost in 2000 to the "Daleyites?" You're referring to his loss to Bobby Rush in the 2000 1st CD? Bobby Rush is a Daleyite? Bobby Rush, who just months prior to that had run against Daley in the mayoral primary? THAT Bobby Rush? Really?

As to your word salad about Daley and the Tribune, we weren't talking about whether Daley leaned on the Tribune (and there's never been even any rumors to that effect) -- we were talking about David Axelrod. David Axelrod, who left the Tribune to work as a consultant to Harold Washington -- who was not exactly Richard Daley's favorite guy in the whole wide world. So before you start spinning some elaborate conspiracy theory, you should probably just stop.

But while we're wrapping this up, guess who one of Obama's opponents was in the 2004 Primary. Go ahead. Take a wild guess. If you guessed Gery Chico, who also happened to be Daley's former Chief of Staff, you'd be correct. So it's not too likely that Hizzoner would have been shilling on behalf of Barack Obama.

By the by...

"I think taxpayers deserve a fair day's work for a day's pay. They expect that people who are hired are hired because of their qualifications and not because of their contacts. I think the [federal] investigation will proceed, and my hope and expectation would be that....we create a culture where taxpayers can respect the work that politicians do." Barack Obama on the Daley Administration, 2005.

And one more thing. I may be Jeff in Milwaukee now, but I'll give you three guesses as to where I grew up.

[former9thward]

52. Are you seriously suggesting Axelrod was not part of Daley's machine?

Here I will give a quote from the NYT since you seem to get all your info about Chicago from out of town articles.

Not that the loss hurt Mr. Obama. Not long after getting “my rear end handed to me,” as he later put it, he ran successfully for the United States Senate — this time with no sitting Democrat to displace, with abundant planning and with a more experienced campaign staff, including David Axelrod, a Daley consultant who is the senior political adviser on Mr. Obama’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/09/us/politics/09obama.html?pagewanted=all

Daley did not give a damn about Rush until Obama starting attacking Daley and the machine in the election. At that point Daley stepped in and called Obama " a Harvard elitist who has come to tell the people of Chicago how to run their lives" in a flyer distributed to everyone in the 2nd ward. Obama was crushed and made peace with Daley. Whether you believe it or not is of no consequence. People who live in Chicago know it is true.

I really don't care where you "grew up".

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

56. Oy....

In that same article you link to? It quotes Obama as saying that he knew half-way through the campaign that he was going to lose. Rush had 90% name recognition and 70% approval. Obama had 10% name recognition and 8% approval. Daley was a non-factor in that race -- it was a hopeless cause on the day it began. To the extent that Daley attacked Obama, it was because the Mayor was pissed off at the disrespect. Not because Daley felt like doing Bobby Rush any favors.

Let's get something clear. Richard Daley is a Democrat and Barack Obama is a Democrat. But Obama didn't even grow up in Chicago -- much less get his start in politics as part of the Daley Machine -- and was most decidedly an outsider. After a rocky first few years, the Mayor and the future-President found common ground -- which is pretty much what one would expect from two political heavyweights living in the same area code. Daley ultimately endorsed Obama for President? OMG!! OMG!! OMG!! A candidate got an endorsement from a politician from the same city and the same political party!

File that one under "No Shit, Sherlock."

But the idea that Obama (or someone connected to him) caused the implosion of Jack Ryan's campaign in unmitigated horse shit. It's the stuff of right-wing conspiracy theorists and not supported by ANYBODY in Chicago or outside of it, Republican or Democrat (except, apparently, you). Ryan was already losing (badly) and the questions about his divorce were already swirling around his campaign -- to the extent that he had to promise the Illinois GOP Leadership that there was nothing to be concerned about in the file. Ryan's campaign -- like Obama's campaign in the 2000 Primary -- was already doomed.

[former9thward]

42. Delete. Duplicate.

Last edited Mon May 12, 2014, 07:23 PM - Edit history (1)

[truedelphi]

30. Any more details?

And you mean the Clinton WH, right, and not the Obama WH.

I had heard this: (From NCarolinaWoman here on DU)
"She couldn't stand the guy. He wasn't fired, but he was demoted to a lesser job.

"Seems Rahm has a history of being totally obnoxious."

[DURHAM D]

33. I honestly don't remember if it was a magazine/newspaper article or in

a book but I know it was print, not online. I read it during the time (mid 2000s) when Rahm was head of the DCCC and he pissed me off almost daily. It was during his tenure that I stopped donating to the DCCC and began to do my own research and pick my own primary candidates to support.

The story also included the fact that George S. was moved along by Hillary for the same problem of running his own agenda. Basically the point of the story was to spell out Bill's problem with being too trusting of those around him. Recently the stories about Hillary and Chelsea cleaning house and tightening the budget at the Clinton Foundation rang a familiar bell.

During the 2008 primary when Rahm got a lot of press (result of his own self-promotion) about remaining publicly neutral about his choice for the Presidency I just rolled my eyes knowing that he was simply negotiating for his own best deal and indeed he got it from Obama - WH Chief of Staff. Perhaps Michelle ran him off this time.

[truedelphi]

58. Quite interesting stuff you found out.

Thanks for passing the info along.

[ieoeja]

32. Rahm did not endorse Obama during the primary.

His endorsement of Obama was announced the day after the last primary.

[alcibiades_mystery]

3. I was polled yesterday on Rahm

50 questions or so, all about Rahm's reelection.

He's gonna lose.

[Stellar]

15. Thank you!!!!

(((alcibiades_mystery))) I sure hope you're right.

[The Magistrate]

22. I Will Vote Against Him In The Primary, Sir

I think open defeat is required. Of course, I will not vote for a Republican in the general, but I will not vote for him in that, either....

[ieoeja]

34. Unless something has changed, sir, Chicago city-only elections do not have primaries.

I remember when it used to be that way. But Daley divorced city elections from federal and state elections awhile back. And made the election a general, non-partisan one.

-------------------

While I've not yet decided for whom I am going to vote, Rahm has not been nearly as bad as I expected.

He fired the school superintendant who was pissing off the teachers. Even more, he is the only pol I've heard of in what-seems-forever to "lose" against a teacher's strike. But then he went ahead with the school closings anyway.

Aside from Charter schools, I haven't heard of him trying to privatize anything the way Daley was. And he seems to do his best to screw Laz Parking out of meter fees whenever possible. At the height of the housing crisis in the immediate aftermath of Daley privatizing street parking, I was halfway hoping the city would take over the delinquent housing, and open up those lots for free parking just to make Laz Parking scream!

-------------------

I would say Rahm's biggest problem in Chicago politics is that he was not made by the Machine. His first political position was in the Clinton White House, not Chicago.

I doubt he even "has a guy".

[The Magistrate]

35. The Primary Always Was The General, Sir

Perhaps that enabled the change to escape my notice.

[ieoeja]

37. I sit corrected on that score then.

I would have sworn city elections were part and parcel of the federal/state elections when I first moved here. I probably just assumed and initially failed to notice the absence of a general later in the year.

When I was young and moving to a new apartment in a different ward every year or two, local politics wasn't much on my radar. But that youth is a few decades behind me now. Local politics can now sometimes feel very personal.

One year was especially fun. Daley the Younger decided to take another swipe at breaking Ed Kelly's hold on the north side faction of the Machine. He got our Alderman to switch camps and run against Kelly for Kelly's Democratic Committeeman seat.

The southside Machine actually sent bully boys to the northside. Gee, what could Kelly, a man who spent decades training boxers in the Park District, possibly do to counter that? Sending muscle against a guy who had Muhammad Ali in his corner didn't work out so great.

Neighborhood bar where I hang out was really fun during that fight. The owner spent years in the Park District working with Kelly. One of his sons was the Alderman's assistant/bodyguard. Another son was married to one of the bartenders who was a Kelly cousin. Her mother was also a bartenders who predated this owner. Everyone wanted to talk about the fight, of course, but you first looked to see who was present. They were all good people who happened to be on a different side of this particular political battle. Nobody wanted to ruffle anybody else's feathers.

I was glad to see Kelly win. Partly because Kelly was still an old school, labor Democrat versus neo-Lib Daley. But also to remind Daley that he was not omnipotent in Chicago, at least on the northside.

[The Magistrate]

38. I May Have Been Unclear, Sir

The Democratic Party Primary was always the election that determined who would be in office; a general election following against some tomato-can Republican was always a fore-gone conclusion. I seldom bothered with it, but always voted the primary. During the second Daley's reign, I confess I started sitting out the municipals; not much point, and I seldom liked who was going to win.

The nearest to an exception of the general just ratifying the primary I recall was when Mayor Washington won the primary. I had the regular precinct people at my door saying everybody should follow them and vote for Eldon, the Republican, under the slogan 'one of us'. I was not very polite. Mr. Washington went on to win, of course, but a damn sight too many Democrats in Chicago voted white instead of right, and the 'council wars' episode which ensued bears an astonishing resemblance to the spectacle of the Republicans in Congress versus President Obama....

[ieoeja]

39. I moved to the area in 1985.

The day Washington died, I found out during lunch at a bar & grill in the burbs (Maywood, I think). I was absolutely astounded at the rejoicing that took place. These people weren't even Chicagoans, but they still celebrated the death of the Black mayor of Chicago.

I grew up on a farm in the bible belt, yet I had never before personally witnessed such an openly extreme display of bigotry.

These people lose all humanity when a Black man gets power.


A Republican did win a congressional seat on the north side once. Rostenkowski was hit with the postal stamp scandal between the primary and general election. So a Republican held that seat for one term before being replaced by Blagojevich. Who, in turn, was replaced by Rahm. It was a rather powerhouse district there for a time.


Always wanted to be a fly on wall of the jail when Rostenkowski got to know his new roommates. "I'm in for defrauding investors out of thirty million dollars. That guy over was caught embezzling millions at some bank. What you in for?"

"I stole some postage stamps."

[Jefferson23]

4. ...in the hopes of scaring off serious challengers...how nice. ugh. n/t

[surrealAmerican]

5. It should be remembered that Daley had no trouble getting re-elected ...

... time and time again.

Even a low approval rating mayor will get re-elected if their opposition offers nothing better.

[frazzled]

7. Yeah, mayor for 5 terms, 21 years

And his father, Richard J., for 21 years as well.

Most of the problems this city is facing today involve cleaning up the debt and mess and unfunded pensions Richie M. left us. I don't want to be too harsh, because there was a really good side to the guy, too. But yoy. Selling those parking meters was the least of his problems, in a way. The TIF money and all the rest lives on.

[Stellar]

14. Rich Daley quit because he knew he couldn't win...

ever again. Chicago was truly pissed off with him and those parking meters. Emanuel took over where Rich left off. Those two really f**ked -up Chicago. Emanuel got elected because the African American community thought he was a friend to Obama.

http://www.chicagoreader.com/chicago/mayor-emanuel-locks-in-parking-meter-deal/Content?oid=9931786

As the reality of the deal sunk in, the public was outraged. CPM doubled the meter rates, then doubled them again, to $2 an hour in most parts of the city, and as much as $6.50 an hour downtown. Under terms of the deal, the company also billed the city for millions of dollars in "true-up payments" to make up for taking the meters out of use for things like road construction, street festivals, free disabled parking, and the NATO summit.

I don't care how much money Emanuel has in the bank or even if Bill Clinton comes here to try and save him....for the most part they are both in trouble with the African American community.

[betterdemsonly]

50. He is a friend of Obama

Obama is just way more conservative than most people believe he is.

[Stellar]

57. Obama is more or less what I expected him to be.

And I knew he wasn't perfect, unfortunately. But I still hate Rahm Emanuel with a purple passion.

[aggiesal]

17. I grew up in Chicago, but I haven't lived there since 1980,

so I'm no expert on current Chicago politics, but you need to read the link about what apparently is happening with money matters in Chicago.

Title of article,
Rahm Emmanuel Cuts Public Pensions, Diverts Money To Benefit Campaign Donors

http://pando.com/2014/04/04/revealed-rahm-emanuel-cuts-public-pensions-diverts-money-to-benefit-campaign-donors/

[Enthusiast]

25. According to the article Rahm behaves as a Republican.

Sounds like it. Policies similar to Walker and Kasich. Why am I not surprised?

[aggiesal]

26. Again, I'm no expert on Chicago politics, but

if only 50% of this is true, maybe even 25%, it's enough to keep me from voting for him.

[kysrsoze]

53. I can't wait to see this asshole gone. He doesn't care about this city - only enriching himself.

Good riddance.

[bvar22]

8. Bill Clinton and Rahm Emanuel...

What a PAIR!!!
Birds of a Feather.

[mopinko]

9. dont bet against him.

especially since i will eat my hat if toni runs. or karen lewis, for that matter. imho, karen is too much of a lightening rod to get elected.
i dont think he needs to worry.

[roguevalley]

10. he needs rejection in a big public way. as a former teacher I will be dancing.

[Drunken Irishman]

11. No better than Daley, who won every election of his by a landslide...

Including his last three with 70% of the vote. Not sure how that puts him on the ropes.

[Cryptoad]

12. ahhhh, the Obama Haters Libertarian Club

will be dancing in the streets!

[marmar]

21. Huh?

[BrotherIvan]

28. +1

[winter is coming]

36. All none of them. n/t

[kysrsoze]

54. I have my issues with Obama, but WAY MORE with Rahm. Don't broad-brush people.

I'm a Chicago resident. I am ANYTHING but a Libertarian. There are thing Obama does which I don't like, but many which I do. I know pretty much two people who don't think Rahm totally sucks.

There are a lot of people I know who hate Rahm, but TYPICALLY will defend Obama on many issues; though not all. Two different people.

[truedelphi]

13. I sure hope some Chicago whiz kid has cloned Jane Byrne

She captured my heart, something few Chicago politicians had done before that period of time.

Be nice if someone of her stature was back on the scene.

[Stellar]

16. I loved it when Jane took Mayor Bilandics job from him

after he fired her.

[truedelphi]

29. Bilandics held a press conference one time

During his campaign, and it was over at Grant Park.

And the photographer suggested that he feed the pigeons.

And the damn pigeons ran away from the guy!

Nothing summed up Bilandics more than that.

And then the snowstorm hitting the city - with Jane basing her campaign on poor snow removal. (At the time, that snowstorm
was rather un-seasonal. Totally unexpected - late March?)

[former9thward]

19. So far no one has announced against him.

Chicago is a big city and the election is only 9 months away. If someone is going to seriously run against him they would need to start now if not a few months ago.

[kysrsoze]

55. Heard a rumor about Gutierrez awhile back, but unfortunately nothing since then.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say I'd vote for Tom Dart if he ran. He seems a good, decent, non-partisan guy, and probably the only Republican I'd see myself voting for in the next 100 years. But he was quickly shut down in the last election.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

20. He will win and he will sell off the rest of our city. nt

[AngryAmish]

23. The election depends on which way the 19th Ward goes

It always does. Those folks vote.

[MisterP]

24. ya, until he fires RoboCop

[caraher]

27. So I'm not up on Chicago politics...

What will the primary field look like? Are there strong challengers? Too many? Too few

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

45. The most obvious

is Toni Preckwinkle, former Chicago Alderperson and current Chair of the Cook County Board. She's undeclared, but likely the strongest candidate. If she doesn't run, I suspect Rahm will be hard to beat -- he's raised a small fortune already and can probably keep shaking the money tree to get more than enough.

[caraher]

46. Thanks

I hope we get one strong candidate to challenge Rahm...