Obama's strategy of letting Putin hang himself is working

[babylonsister]

Obama's strategy of letting Putin hang himself is working

Updated by Max Fisher on May 16, 2014, 7:00 a.m. ET @Max_Fisher [e-mail]
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Let me be the first to admit it: President Obama's strategy for handling Russia and its incursions into Ukraine had seemed to me, as it did to many others, pretty unlikely to succeed.

Obama dismissed Russia as a "regional power" acting "out of weakness," but it was the US that looked weak: it could only cobble together some targeted sanctions that, while tough, appeared to do nothing to stop Russia's meddling in eastern Ukraine. He needed Europe's support for broader economic sanctions that would actually hurt the Russian economy and he didn't get it. Obama implicitly abandoned Crimea, giving no sign that he thought that, weeks after Russia invaded and annexed the territory, it might ever be returned to Ukraine. The official US position has been to threaten broader sanctions that seem unlikely to get the European support necessary to make them hurt, while arguing that Russia's actions will be so self-defeating that the problem would just sort itself out.

It sounded silly, a shrug of a policy. And maybe it even was. But it also turns out to be working surprisingly well. Russian President Vladimir Putin has over-reached in Ukraine, creating problems for himself so bad that they may force him down as or more effectively than plausible American actions alone might have (although they helped). Putin is hanging himself by his own rope.

This has been so effective, and has apparently taken Putin by such surprise, that after weeks of looking like he could roll into eastern Ukraine unchallenged, he's backing down all on his own. Official Russian rhetoric, after weeks of not-so-subtle threats of invading eastern Ukraine, is backing down. Putin suddenly looks like he will support Ukraine's upcoming presidential election, rather than oppose it, although it will likely install a pro-European president. European and American negotiators say the tone in meetings has eased from slinging accusations to working toward a peaceful resolution.

Most of this is economic. Russia's self-imposed economic problems started pretty quickly after its annexation of Crimea in March and have kept up. Whether or not American or European governments sanction Russia's broader economy, the global investment community has a mind of its own, and they seem to have decided that Russia's behavior has made it a risky place to put money. So risky that they're pulling more money out.

A lot of that may have come from the targeted sanctions that Obama pushed for against individual Russian leaders and oligarchs. Those targeted sanctions did not themselves do much damage to the Russian economy. But, along with Russia's erratic behavior in Ukraine and the lack of clarity as to whether Europe and the US could impose broader sanctions, it appears to have been enough to scare off global investors — the big, faceless, placeless mass of people and banks who have done tremendous damage to Putin's Russia, nudged along by the US and by Putin himself.

more...

http://www.vox.com/2014/5/16/5717674/obamas-plan-to-let-putin-hang-himself-is-working

[randys1]

1. Obama repeatedly surprises everyone with his genius foregin affairs work

And when he needs to, he gives the order to do what has to be done like kill Osama...

[oldandhappy]

2. Glad to hear this

Obama is usually many steps ahead of the rest of us!

[WhiteTara]

3. I just read an article about what a failure he is and

that we'll soon be at war ...the list of war countries began with Afghanistan and Iraq like those were his wars. THen they tried to conflate Syria, Libya, yada yada and soon to be Iran...even though they are dismantling their war program. (Sorry, I'm too tired to look for the article on DU)

I don't understand why people everywhere on both the right and the left give him no credit for being brilliant. I love it that we have not invaded a single country since 2009 and that we are ending our presence in 2 wars of our creation. I have no idea how to help the countries we destroyed, but at least we haven't done it again for 6 years.

[3catwoman3]

4. I've said it before and I'll happily say it again.

Our president plays 3 dimensional chess, not whack-a-mole, and I am damn glad of it.

[Cha]

5. I guess I know Pres Obama better than Max Fisher then..

I would have been surprised if it hadn't worked.

mahalo babylonsistah~

[freshwest]

6. Crimea is not net profitable for Russia. Article early on here at DU explained the obligations it

Last edited Sun May 18, 2014, 11:11 PM - Edit history (1)

entailed to keep up its social infrastructure and promises were made to relieve the distress caused by years of neglect that is costing Russia a lot. Some of the support from Crimeans was seeking to get a better deal then they were getting.

That will have to be paid. Putin has been glorified so much in the western media such as Faux for the same reasons they loved Bundy, creating a tough guy persona to appeal to a certain part of American society. That's good for those who think life is a Hollywood film, jsut like the OAS clowns.I don't see that in Putin, not that he is weak, but he's just doing his job as he sees it.

I think Putin got suckered. BTw, not in your OP, but there a misunderstanding about 'New Russia.' It's an old geographical term, it's not an American 'Manifest Destiny' thing. He may have felt more danger from losing his military weapons makers in Ukraine.

Like other nations, he's got parts of his nation that are out of his control, and making trouble. He longs for the USSR, because it's what he grew up with and he hasn't got another meme to unite his nation.

JMHO. YMMV.