Hillary is telling us that her coalition is better than Obama's...

[Drunken Irishman]

It's plain and simple. She believes, and it will be put to the test in 2016, that her coalition of voters, specifically in the general election, is better than Obama's - which she doesn't need.

Truth is, they're different coalitions. Obama managed to win reelection on the backs of younger voters, blacks, women and Hispanics. Hillary will certainly grab the female vote, especially with her historic candidacy, but it's unlikely, with this tone and approach, she could ever energize the youth to the point Obama did in both 2008 and 2012 (and even he hit a wall in most regards there). In many ways, Hillary's path the presidency is returning to the historical path many Democrats have taken over the years - specifically her husband in the 90s. That path consists of ethnic voters, women and working class whites who abandoned the party in the 1980s.

The difference is that, as proven with past candidates who failed at the presidential level (Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore and Kerry) is that the latter group - working class whites - isn't a guarantee for a Democrat. Clinton, to his credit, was able to garner their support in key swing states (at least, enough to win two comfortable elections), but other Democrats haven't been so lucky - and that includes Obama. Obama, however, was lucky enough to carve his own demographic edge that may not exist if Hillary alienates herself from the President.

So, can she peel off enough working class whites from the Republicans to win the White House in 2016 is she runs? That's the burning question. To her credit, though, the polls indicate that, at least right now, she is doing it. But 2016 is still a long ways away and even the slightest slip could put her in territory that makes her supposed winning coalition shaky.

In reality, Hillary seems content running the same presidential campaign her husband ran in the 1990s. But it isn't the 1990s anymore and while the Republicans extremism will certainly boost her image as level-headed politician, if she can't win over an entire group of voters skeptical of the Democratic Party, she has no other group to pull her support from if she continues down this path of attacking Obama. Not the young. Not liberals ... and not blacks, who, whether Hillary believes it or not, will be instrumental in getting her victories in states Democrats may need to win in 2016.

We'll see, I guess.

[underpants]

1. Be careful Hillary - he doesn't have to sell you access to the OFA database

(Unless he already has)

With that database and the right geek squad you actually could get a ham sammich elected. Without it..... be careful

[Little Star]

2. The White House said the president, along with first lady Michelle Obama, planned to see Hillary...

Wednesday at a party on Martha's Vineyard for Ann Jordan, wife of Democratic adviser Vernon Jordan.
http://www.capecodonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20140812/NEWS11/140819851/-1/NEWS

Both Barack & Hillary understand politics. Too bad many here on DU don't get it.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. Obama isn't going to turn his back to Hillary publicly.

He's not stupid. However, Hillary also can't risk alienating what got Obama to the White House or she runs the risk of losing on her own.

Just as Obama couldn't afford to alienate Clinton supporters in 2008.

[LordGlenconner]

10. +1

[NightWatcher]

3. Hey Hillary, stop running against Obama

[onehandle]

4. 55% of women voted for Obama and elected him.

2012 was 'the year of the woman voter.'

Guess what will happen with Hillary at the top of the ticket in 2016?

I'm not pushing Hillary. Just being honest.

I think that Rubio is the GOP's only chance in 2016 against Hillary. There may be enough Latino voters who will abandon the Democrats just to vote for a Latino candidate.


And young voters are useless based on the FACT that they crippled Obama's Presidency by staying home in 2010.

[Drunken Irishman]

7. I would be surprised if Hillary does much better than that...

The thing is, Obama still had a close call on his hand. Even with 55% of the female vote, he didn't blow Mitt Romney out of the water. He won because other groups, namely Hispanics and the young voters, got out the vote as well.

[LordGlenconner]

12. What some don't seem to grasp

Is that DU's approval/acceptance/understanding is not required for Hillary to be elected president.

That being said, if the other side doesn't pick some kind of lunatic like Cruz or Rand Paul, and instead picks someone that the plebes believe is more moderate and not completely insane, that could be problematic for her.

I'd guess her camp is probably not relishing the idea of running against Willard or Jebby. Especially considering she lacks her husband's touch on the campaign trail.

The odds of the GOP not picking a firebrand bagger as their nominee in 2016 are fairly low. However, it's worth mentioning they did not pick one in 2012.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. I agree with you there. If it's Rand or Cruz, Hillary should win walking away...

But if it's someone who can moderate their image, Hillary might find a battle on her hands.

[LordGlenconner]

16. Precisely

And she may have a battle on her hands during the primary if she keeps up the hawk talk. I find it a bit troubling, frankly.

But we have many miles to go.

[arcane1]

19. It's sad that we have to assume some people vote without any consideration besides identity...

and are only voting for the candidate that looks most like them.

I'm a white male so I guess I'll have to vote for the candidate that most matches my political views instead.

[bigwillq]

6. Go away, Hillary. Far, far away. (nt)

[elfin]

8. Women might not be automatic supporters and voters

I am a woman who is very disturbed by her "will she or won't she" roll out. Verbal gaffes that should not happen with one so experienced, revealing comments as to her general hawkishness and my deep misgivings as to her relationship with the financially messy CGI etc.

I have always supported our Dem candidates with a few bucks and many volunteer hours. Right now, she gets neither.

When Obama slyly remarked during a debate that she was "likable enough", he revealed something very obvious - she needs to work VERY hard to be "likeable enough" to realize her all too apparent obsession. Right now, this woman voter does not like her.

[MohRokTah]

9. She plans to win amongst white women.

Obama lost white women in 2012 by a about 20 points.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-c-wilson/the-elephant-in-the-exit_b_2094354.html

I think she might be kidding herself.

[Drunken Irishman]

14. Democrats have struggled with white women...

Tho, Obama lost it by 14 points - not 20 (that was overall white vote). Obama lost it by 7 in 2008. Kerry lost it by 11 in 2004.

Clinton, in 1996, was the only Democrat to win the white woman vote since 1972. Every Democrat has either tied, or lost the vote. My guess is Hillary probably doesn't change that.

[MohRokTah]

18. Sorry, looked at the wrong chart. eom

[Robbins]

20. And Hilary may lose among white women too

She may get a small numer back but i can tell you among my family where In 2012 I was about only one who voted obama I am hearing from them Hillary will destroy country.And this is white women.

Since W white women especilly married white women are moving republican.Some especilly single ones may still vote Democratic.

[Drunken Irishman]

21. At best, I'd wager she probably matches Obama's 7 point margin from 2008.

[MohRokTah]

22. That's why I think she's getting more hawkish.

That's what appears to be the plan to win white women.

[stevenleser]

11. This was talked about months ago between Sec Hillary and Pres Obama and is expected

Every incumbent knows that folks who will be running to succeed them from their own party will attempt to show where they have differences. That conversation has been had months ago between Hillary and Obama and they both understand and acknowledge that this is the way it works and it will not create bad feelings between them.

This process will continue for the next 18 months or so. Hillary will explain exactly where she and the President agree and where they disagree. Administration spokespeople will respond. But there will be no malice about it either way.

[Cali_Democrat]

13. Good analysis. nt

[KittyWampus]

17. Going to rec your thread cause I think you nailed her strategy. She exists in a time warp.

And she's also of the Clintonian mindset that it isn't worth fighting in more states than necessary.

Remember, Clinton is the Democrat in power who allowed the Democratic party to atrophy so Gore had a weakened party infrastructure intact when it mattered most.

[KoKo]

23. With HER...the Bubble of Privilege in DC (now that she has it) seems to rule her.

How could she forget what the RW did to her and her husband from the time they were Elected.....?

But, they Prospered Well after he left the White House and gave the RW what they wanted in Legislation....and that seemed to make it okay for Hillary & Bill.... THEY JOINED FORCE with their PERSECUTORS......and redeemed themselves with ...demise of Glass-Steagall which separated Savings & Loans from Investment Banks (kept us safe from Wall Street abuse since Roosevelt), "Welfare Reform Act, Commodities Futures Reform Act, Telecommunications Reform Act of 1998" (allowing MSM (Mainstream Media) to take over our AIRWAVES giving us LESS CONTENT for more Dollars out of Consumers Pocket books and More ADS to Assault us with), and, then add in "Welfare Reform" and a few other bits and pieces after LEWINSKY and STARR COMMISSION raked them over the coals.......and what do you have?

Multi-Millionaire former First Lady and President of USA running for their THIRD TERM!

And all is well in the "Homeland." Or....is it?