Why Democrats will keep the Senate: A contrarian analysis of the 2014 midterms

[still_one]

"Sam Wang gives Democrats a 72 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate. It's not a widely held view, but he did accurately predict every Senate race in 2012. Here's why the pundits may be underestimating Democrats this year.

Unlike pretty much every other polling analyst out there – ranging from Nate Silver to The New York Times’s Upworthy to more traditional analysts, like Larry Sabato, Charles Cook, and Stuart Rothenberg – Sam Wang believes that the Democrats are likely to hold on to the Senate this year, indeed he currently gives them a 72% chance of holding on to the Senate. While this is certainly a contrarian point of view at the moment, it’s worth noting that Mr. Wang did accurately predict the outcome of every Senate election in 2012 and, while he hasn’t gotten the same press that people like Nate Silver have, his conclusions are at least worth paying attention to as we head into the final six weeks of the midterms."

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/Decoder-Voices/2014/0831/Why-Democrats-will-keep-the-Senate-A-contrarian-analysis-of-the-2014-midterms

[Thinkingabout]

1. Sure hope Mr Wang is correct. We need to make gains in the House also.

[3rdwaydem]

2. I hope this is right. It's encouraging

[still_one]

3. Of course we have to vote

[3rdwaydem]

4. No problem there for me.

[Cha]

5. Sam Wang! thank you, stillone

[FailureToCommunicate]

6. Make it so: GOTFV!

These rosy predictions will only come true if every DUer drags his/her mother, brother, uncle, nephew, dog and a thousand of their friends to the polls on election day...

[HoosierCowboy]

7. Don't need to drive a bus to the polls...

....to win elections. Elections are won by less than three votes per precinct. Some someone sitting at home that you don't know, that wants to vote can determine the future of human civilization.
Find them!

[Stardust]

13. I'd gladly give a ride to voters (except Republicans...therein lies my dilemma.) Nt

[mountain grammy]

8. Democrats MUST hold the Senate or it's over

They will impeach so fast it'll make your head spin...then look out! Republicans are dangerous.

[still_one]

9. They may impeach, but they won't get a conviction. Even though they may gain seats in the Senate,

it won't be enough

[progressoid]

11. Impeachment is the least of the damage they can do.

[still_one]

12. Maybe. If they managed to impeach and convict, then Biden would be President, so what would they

have accomplished?

Even if they get a majority in the Senate, which incidentally I do not think they will, but if they did, it will be at most by one or 2 votes. The President has veto power.

The big problem that I would be concerned about, which might be your concern to would be the Supreme Court

[William769]

10. Kick & recommended.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

14. DC act like Democrats are always temporary and Republican rule is the norm...

Their attitude now it it's their turn.

We're all supposed to pack up our things on the back of our big wheels and go home.