Assessing Assad - The Syrian leader isn't crazy. He's just doing whatever it takes to survive.

[tabatha]

Assad depends on the backing of key members of the Alawite clan, a quasi-Shiite group consisting of between 12 and 15 percent of Syria's mostly Sunni population. The Alawites make up 70 percent of Syria's career military, 80 percent of the officers, and nearly 100 percent of the elite Republican Guard and the 4th Armored Division, led by the president's brother Maher. In a survey of country experts we conducted in 2007, we found that Assad's key backers -- those without whose support he would have to leave power -- consisted of only about 3,600 members out of a population of about 23 million. That is less than 0.02 percent. Assad is not alone in his dependence on a small coalition. Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's coalition is even smaller. His essential supporters include the Revolutionary Guard's leadership, the economically essential bonyad conglomerates, key clerics, and a smattering of business interests, totaling, according to our survey of Iran experts, about 2,000 in a population of well over 70 million.

Any political system that depends on such a small percentage of the population to sustain a leader in power is destined to be a corrupt, rent-seeking regime in which loyalty is purchased through bribery and privilege. Syria possesses these traits in spades. Transparency International reports in its latest evaluation that Syria ranks in the top third of the world for corruption. ...

There are two effective responses to a mass uprising (other than stepping down, of course, which leaders almost never do until all other options have been exhausted): liberalize to redress the people's grievances or crack down to make their odds of success too small for them to carry on. Leaders who lack the financial wherewithal to continue paying off cronies often choose to liberalize. (Remember South Africa's F.W. de Klerk, who negotiated a government transition with Nelson Mandela's African National Congress when economic decline made the apartheid system unsustainable.)

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/12/20/is_assad_crazy_or_just_ruthless?page=full

[joshcryer]

1. Thanks for this, going to check out "The Dictator's Handbook."

Bruce and Alastair appear to be on the mark as far as authoritarians go.

[Cleita]

2. It seems he should be looking over his shoulder at recent events in Libya.

That cracking down thing didn't work out so well for the Ghaddafi clan.

[tabatha]

4. He has even less support than Gaddafi, who had about 10-15%.

[TheKentuckian]

3. No, he resides more in the area of evil.

[prepperdad]

5. A ruthless, practical leader

Assad understands realpolitik. Note that he's fine with brutal crackdowns when the world isn't looking but can also make political compromises when he has to.


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