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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region Forums538 calls the Michigan Senate race pretty much over.
In every Senate forecast FiveThirtyEight has published this year, Republicans have been slightly favored to take back the chamber. That hasnt changed with our latest model run: Republicans are a 58 percent favorite.
On Thursday, three surveys confirmed the trend. EPIC-MRA and Lake Research (in a poll for the liberal group Progress Michigan) found Democrat Gary Peters ahead of Republican Terri Lynn Land by 9 percentage points. Mitchell Research put Peterss advantage at 13 points. Additionally, a Target-Insyght poll this week found Peters up by 10 percentage points. On average, Peters was ahead in these polls by a little over 10 percentage points.
The FiveThirtyEight forecast isnt ready to put Peters ahead by that much; it projects him to win by 6 percentage points, with an 89 percent chance of winning in November. Thats up from 70 percent at the beginning of September. More impressively, its way up from the 55 percent chance FiveThirtyEight gave Peters in its March outlook.
Ten other races are now rated as more competitive than Michigan.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/senate-update-democrats-wrapping-up-in-michigan/
Octafish
(55,745 posts)That is great news. Thanks, RandySF!
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)The Obama presidency reminds me of the Clinton presidency. When Clinton was elected in 92 we controlled the House, Senate, and had the majority of governors. When he left office we didn't control the House, Senate, and had the minority of governors.
These things seem to be cyclical.
Liberal_in_LA
(44,397 posts)catbyte
(34,383 posts)age 19 & she is infinitely more insufferable now.