Prediction: Korean re-unification will happen soon, and suddenly.

[Warren Stupidity]

[DavidDvorkin]

1. If so, that will eliminate (South) Korea as a major economy.

[JimDandy]

3. Yes, even if unification is peaceful

the South can't absorb the poverty stricken North without their economic engine grinding to a near halt. I suspect China will be highly motivated to infuse major cash to keep the country stable.

[JI7]

14. not just SK, but the US , Europe, Japan and other places should help also

[TwilightGardener]

4. It would be a massive strain, to be sure.

[JI7]

13. there will be some down times but there are also lessons learned

from history. they have the potential to come out even bigger in the future.

[AngryAmish]

25. It will be bumoy, but Koreans will be ok.

[tblue37]

32. Germany struggled when they had to absorb the impoverished state of

East Germany, and they also struggled with the totalitarian-induced conditioning the East Germans had undergone. Despite their general desire for freedom, the East Germans had beliefs and attitudes that did not mesh well with Germany's liberal political stance.

But it still worked out, and Germany just recently celebrated their annual commemoration of that reunification. I believe they call the anniversary "National Day."

[randome]

19. Think of the infrastructure opportunities, though.

Modern roads and buildings and bridges. Plumbing? Sewer systems?? All will need to be built.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]There is nothing you can't do if you put your mind to it.
Nothing.[/center][/font][hr]

[DavidDvorkin]

21. That's the problem

It was tough on Germany, and in their case, East Germany was much smaller in size and population and not so backward as N. Korea.

[randome]

22. I can't say I paid that much attention to the problems Germany faced so perhaps you're right.

And I hope you're wrong.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]Treat your body like a machine. Your mind like a castle.[/center][/font][hr]

[pampango]

36. Good point. East Germany was 1/4 the population of West. North Korea is 1/2 the size of South.

Plus North Korea is an even bigger economic and human rights basket case than East Germany was.

[unblock]

27. because germany fizzled away after reunification?

[DavidDvorkin]

30. Of course not. However,

it took quite a while to get back to where they had been because of the costs of the East.

Korea would be much worse. The area and population size are similar in the two Koreas, and the north is terrible backward, with awful infrastructure and an imporverished, uneducated population. By contrast, E. Germany was about 1/4 the size of W. Germany, and it had the best infrastructure, most educated population, and highest standard of living in the Soviet Bloc. That still put it well behind W. Germany, but the constrast was nothing like that between the two Koreas.

[unblock]

46. it works the same way. if korea is reunified with a more or less normal system,

then the north korean portion is nothing be great potential.

poor immigrants come to america and while the right-wing claims they are a drain on our society, they are actually helping by working hard, spending some of their money back into our economy, and saving and becoming middle-class, if not themselves then the next generation. north korea would be similar, it would provide huge jobs getting them up to south korea standards and it would take time.

you may be right in that this might take considerably longer than the absorption of east germany. but i don't see why it wouldn't follow a similar path.

the main point is that if there is a normal, korea-wide system, then the reunification process is a one-time investment, which eventually would be more than overcome with enough time.

[Electric Monk]

2. South and North Korea Agree to New Talks - NYT

(snip)

...a breakthrough appeared to come on Saturday, when top South Korean policy makers met with a North Korean delegation visiting Incheon for the closing ceremony of the Asian Games, a surprise visit that South Korea announced just an hour before the officials’ arrival. The delegation included three of the most trusted aides of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un.

During the meeting on Saturday, the two sides agreed to resume a formal dialogue later this month or in early November, the South’s Ministry of Unification said in a statement. “While calling the upcoming talks a second round of dialogue, the North explained that it intended to hold more rounds of South-North talks in the future,” the statement said.

The mention of a “second round” appeared to refer to the last time officials met to discuss the family reunions, in February. Soon after that meeting, hundreds of aging Koreans from both sides were allowed to hold emotional family reunions at a North Korean resort. No further reunions have been held since then.

The North Korean delegation’s visit and the agreement to resume talks were all the more unexpected, given the North’s recent vitriol toward the South Korean president, Park Geun-hye. On Thursday, the North called Ms. Park “a rabid dog” after she vowed that pressing the North to end human rights abuses would be a key goal of her government.

more
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/asia/south-and-north-korea-agree-to-resume-high-level-talks.html

LBN thread on this http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014910891

[BillZBubb]

5. I predict you are wrong.

Something may be going on, but the wheels will turn slowly.

The power structure in the North would have to work out a method where they retain their status and have immunity from future prosecution. That won't be easy to iron out.

[randome]

18. The wheels ALWAYS turn slowly. But when the moment is reached, it will SEEM sudden.

It takes 12 hours to move from AM to PM. Yet just an instant for the changeover.
[hr][font color="blue"][center]There is nothing you can't do if you put your mind to it.
Nothing.[/center][/font][hr]

[KittyWampus]

28. like honey off a spoon. It's viscosity means it moves so very slowly until it finally reaches

the edge and a stream commences.

[tblue37]

33. Like the sudden collapse of the Berlin Wall, which only *looked* as though it happened all

at once, but was really the culmination of a build-up that had been going on for a long time.

[randome]

41. Good points, tblue37 and KittyWampus!

[hr][font color="blue"][center]TECT in the name of the Representative approves of this post.[/center][/font][hr]

[Silent3]

6. Take all the problems that there were in reuniting East and West Germany...

...and multiply those by a factor of 10.

Or maybe 100.

No people on Earth have ever been as culturally isolated as the people of North Korea. Perhaps agreements could be made soon, plans decided on soon, but the actually reunification would have to be done slowly and carefully. Even with the best laid plans, reunification would be a painful process with a few unanticipated snags along the way.

[hunter]

8. Possibly like Germany.

Police officers of the East German Volkspolizei wait for the official opening of the Brandenburg Gate on 22 December 1989.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_reunification

There's gonna be a lot of dazed and confused North Koreans wandering about if that happens.

[oldandhappy]

9. I worked in South Korea briefly

in the mid to late 90's and that was the biggest fear -- sudden reunification. South Korea cannot support/sustain/rehab North Korea all in one swoop. South Korea has a strong economy, but the North is a wreck. Sudden total immediate reunification could crash the South. I do not have any answers.

[davidpdx]

12. Agreed

See what I wrote in Post #11

[oldandhappy]

17. Thank you. I read your post. Appreciate your comments.

[jwirr]

23. Could it be done with international help? You at least have some knowledge of the situation.

[oldandhappy]

39. Read answer #11. That person has more current information.

North Korea is a total wasteland. It has to be completely rebuilt -- everything. It will take generations. NK has generations of underfed people, total propaganda on tv, huge prisons. People on top take everything. Notice how Kim looks obese? His recent health articles include words such as diabetes and gout. People in the countryside are marginal re nutrition, economic opportunity, education, health. Forgive the pessimism! I do hope for people to figure this out. Much worse than the East/West Germany thing.

[jwirr]

47. Wow that is what I was afraid of. If this sister is any different than the rest of the family maybe

we can work with her to start this long road now and hope for change in the future.

[tblue37]

35. I do think the *huge* NK army will be part of what makes reunification so

rough for SK. I hope the West *will* recognize that offering real help would be in our best interests, too.

[randome]

42. I think Americans will be in favor of offering help. But will Conservatives?

[hr][font color="blue"][center]Precision and concision. That's the game.[/center][/font][hr]

[CK_John]

10. I agree and post similar this morning.

[davidpdx]

11. I have lived in South Korea for the past decade, so I'd like to think I know what's going on

First, I would bet if South Korean people were polled they would be against reunification especially on a short timeline. As someone else has mentioned, the cost associated with reunification would be extraordinary. North Korea lacks infrastructure, jobs, a decent education system, and has rampant poverty. The best comparison, the reunification of West and East Germany, would not even come close to an estimation of the costs involved.

Second, there would be a large problem with migration from North to South Korea. I can tell you for sure South Koreans would not be pleased with the idea of that happening. To prevent this, the two Koreas would need to remain separate for a period of time. How long? It could be as few as 5 and as many as 10 to 15 years.

Third, China opposes the reunification of Korea. Sure you can say "well fuck China" (and I agree to a point), but China holds enough power to prevent it from happening. China also makes claims to some of the areas which are part of North Korea, which would complicate things greatly. The Chinese Government have been known to use their people to cause sudden outbursts of nationalism.

Fourth, what type of an interim government would they have? Certainly it could be one run by the Kim family. Would people go along with it or would there be an uprising from North Koreans who felt their country was being meddled with?

As much as I hope for reunification someday, I don't see it happening right now.

[hollysmom]

15. a Question - have them been apart so long that relatives don't miss their others in the north?

I could see where they allow close relatives to get together in a slow shift. But they could not let them starve again to where there were rumors of cannibalism.

[davidpdx]

16. Good question

My FIL is from North Korea, he grew up in a small village outside the capital and ended up leaving the north to avoid conscription. He ended up fighting on the side of the south in the Korean War. He very much misses his family. In the past he's signed up for the reunions, but people are selected via a lottery, so the chance of being picked is slim to none. He has an older sister who might still be alive, but we don't know for sure.

[hollysmom]

24. Thanks

I know that my parents were born here, but my mother's family kept in touch with the family in Poland, where there is still not that depth of separation, when mother died, all contact was lost. I would not know any of them. It sounds like the biggest impetus for reunification is aging out.

[jwirr]

20. I hope so. The ordinary people of North Korea are in real economic trouble and that would make it

better.

[valerief]

26. It'll be amazing to witness North Koreans seeing the 21st century for the first time. nt

[randome]

43. A hell of a lot of stories are waiting to be told.

[hr][font color="blue"][center]All things in moderation, including moderation.[/center][/font][hr]

[edhopper]

29. no

not while the Kims rule.

Germany reunified because the USSR was no longer there to keep it going and defend it.

While NK gets help from China, it is it's own country and I don't see the PTB giving up rule for unification.
They show no history of acting to benefit their own people.

Unless the DMZ is removed and a free flow of people and goods happens between (it won't) this won't happen.

[Jackpine Radical]

31. I should think that the first step would be for the NK gov't to make

serious and large steps toward rejoining the world at large before even thinking about national reunification, opening their borders to trade & communication. They could become a huge source of 3rd-world labor to rival Malaysia, Vietnam & the like. This may be, in fact, one of the reasons China opposes their re-entry.

One must of course be very seriously concerned about what such a move would do to wages in the rest of the world, but the solutions to that nest of problems lies in worldwide pro-labor treaties, not merely on the Korean peninsula. Until the laborers of the world unite to battle the international corporations, the presence or absence of North Korea in the international labor market will be of relatively small significance.

[Warren Stupidity]

40. Unlikely.

There is no way that will happen. Executions would eliminate anyone proposing that sort of thing officially. Instead it is much more likely that an under the table negotiated deal and coup while the ruling family is in some sort of transitional state where it cannot react will occur. Like right now for example.

"what such a move would do to wages in the rest of the world" - Germany integrated East Germany without much trouble, even within Germany itself, and it made zero impact on the world economy. Korea will similarly absorb the North without it making a huge impact on their economy, let alone the rest of the planet. This is a total of 25M people. It is not some huge labor pool that will destabilize anything.

[Jackpine Radical]

48. I have no handle whatsoever on internal NK politics.

However, as I said above, "the presence or absence of North Korea in the international labor market will be of relatively small significance."

As for E. Germany, I believe they rather quickly underwent a major increase in wage scales as part of the integration. I don't know that any such thing would happen in NK.

[KamaAina]

34. The question is, who will be behind it?

The Moonies aren't called the "Unification Church" for nothing.

[customerserviceguy]

37. From what I've read here

especially from those on this thread who truly know Korea, that it seems it will take massive amounts of international cooperation to make this happen. Certainly China will have to be persuaded to go along with this, and perhaps ceding some of the territory in NK claimed by China would give them a way to save face in this situation.

For the rest of the world, the contribution to stability would be worth the trillions it would cost. Just not having a NK regime willing to ship nuclear missiles around the world to the highest buyers would be of benefit.

[closeupready]

38. If it leads to dismantlement of NK's nukes, no cost should be spared, IMO.

A kind of North Korean Marshall Plan.

[JaneyVee]

45. Kim Jong will have to go into hiding once north koreans see

What has been withheld from them. Especially since he himself enjoys those luxuries while his people don't.