Elizabeth Warren, *not* running, gains on Hillary! in NH

[MannyGoldstein]

According to University of New Hampshire-WMUR polling, NH residents most-preferred Democrats for President in July were

Hillary!: 59%
Biden: 14%
Warren (who's not running): 8%

Three months later...
Hillary!: 58%
Warren (who's not running): 18%
Biden: 3%

Ten percent's a mighty big jump for someone who's not running, in a non-Liberal state, and still two years from the election.

My guess is that Warren will be at about 80% when she continues to not be running in mid-2016.

Also, Rand Paul seems to be tanking.

Here's the article:

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/run-2016/2014/10/10/rand-paul-down-elizabeth-warren-up-in-new-hampshire-poll

[postulater]

1. I just saw her with Mary Burke in Milwaukee.

If she wants to not be forced to run she has to do something waaaay different than what she did today.

Her message is on target and she is talking to the right people.

If she doesn't want to run she had better stop right now.

[yeoman6987]

2. See took the support from Vice President Biden

Doesn't have much to do with Hillary.

[morningfog]

3. It is illustrative of Hillary's ceiling.

Hillary's numbers are solely her name recognition, and as high as they can get. As the race progresses, Hillary has only down to go. She's been here before. As people hear more from get they dislike her more in favor of others.

[yeoman6987]

4. I think she is a lock on the nomination this time

First. She learned from last time and will have a better disciplined campaign. A lot of President Obama supporter are beginning to endorse her. And a 40 point lead is pretty good.

[morningfog]

5. She's at her max. Even if she maintains 58%,

which she won't, it will not be a lock. She may win the nomination, but I doubt it.

[yeoman6987]

7. She is at her max? Lol. I would imagine some

Would love those numbers. If she can stay above the others, the percent does not matter. We do not normally go for "it's their turn" like GOP does all the time, but we might this time. If she does not get the nomination this time, I think her political career would be over.

[morningfog]

8. I think her political career was let in 2008, she just doesn't

realize it.

And yes. Her max, as in absolute highest possible potential. As in, if she does everything perfect and outside events don't influence the race, maybe she could stay there. As in, she can only possibly bleed support, not acquire more. She is too known, there is nowhere for her to acquire new support. She only has down to go. When that is the case, 58% does not look so good.

I would go so far to say, if she loses one of the first 3 primaries, it will be another long campaign ending in her loss. Her only route to win is to knock other out before the race begins.

[JDPriestly]

15. People thought that in 2008. Better discipline will not make her a winner.

Elizabeth Warren's message is what is bringing her up. Hillary can't fake who she is. That's Hillary's problem.

[SheilaT]

28. Wasn't she a lock on the nomination in 2008?

At this point we are still two full years away from the next Presidential election and a lot could happen. No one has a lock this far out.

And Hillary supposedly had the lock on the '08 nomination in early spring of that year, and she still didn't get it.

There's something I've heard about not counting your eggs, just can't quite remember how it goes.

[hrmjustin]

6. While i support Hillary, Warren would make a great candidate and make it a great race.

I doubt she will run but you never know.

[marble falls]

9. I'll get a bumper sticker.

[sadoldgirl]

10. Where can one get one?

I just ordered some from PDA for Bernie, but I would love to have one for her; after all my bumper has two sides.

[Jackpine Radical]

18. Be sure to put Bernie's on the left.

[marble falls]

11. I get the blanks from any craft place but Hobby Lobby or WalMarts and print them off my computer.

[sadoldgirl]

12. Thanks, I just googled it

and found that cafepress has them for $3.99, which is fine with me.

[marble falls]

13. Then again, Biden? He could own a car dealership AND an insurence agency....

The closer we get to the convention, the harder everyone will be looking at Hilary. Pity the GOP. They have no choices at all. Mitt? And who else? You can bet Ryan will be getting a major ignoring.

[truedelphi]

20. Of course, Biden's son sitting on the board of directors of an energy firm that

is benefitting from our funding the Ukrainian forces is not so good.

Oil profiteering combined with war profiteering is one of the worst combinations out there, in terms of helping with political elections.

[marble falls]

21. It helps create the illusion that all politicians are venial and their families share in the booty..

It helps keep the vote down because "what's the use"? I don't think the VP is a crook but he does seem not right for the Oval Office. Of course if he were the choice after the convention and the GOP isn't offering anything but Teabillies, I'll vote for him. Biden was shown to be a plagiarizer, running against Bill Clinton for the nomination.

[JDPriestly]

14. Great news!

[99th_Monkey]

16. Where is Bernie "IS running" Sanders in all this?

did he just not score high enough to be mentioned?
... or did they totally not include him in the choices?

[Babel_17]

29. At 3%

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2014_fall_primary100914.pdf

[99th_Monkey]

30. But that's just in New Hampshire, if my eyes are not deceiving me. ~nt~

[Babel_17]

31. Yes New Hampshire, per the thread title and the poll mentioned in the OP :)

So, when you ask where Sanders was in all this, I posted the link to the poll.

[99th_Monkey]

32. Ahh! So it is. Sorry.

I only glanced over the OP. Good reminder to
pay closer attention before posting. Thanks.

[Babel_17]

34. No problem!

There are going to be lots of threads and polls, I think, and before very long we'll know if Senator Sanders will be one of the candidates.

[Babel_17]

33. There's this too, fwiw

http://www.wcax.com/story/26758962/should-sen-bernie-sanders-run-for-president

Our poll also found if it comes down to Bernie Sanders versus Hilary Clinton in a Democratic primary, 36 percent say they would vote for Sanders, 29 percent say Clinton. But when you look only at Democrats the support swings to Clinton 46 percent to 42 percent.

"If there's a lot of independents that choose the Democratic ballot in the primary, then Sanders would have a good chance over Clinton in the Vermont primary. And if it's going to be Democrats voting only, then I think he's got a tougher hill to climb," said Rich Clark of the Castleton Polling Institute.

[Baitball Blogger]

17. If only Clinton could get an awakening between now and the next election.

Thirdway politics just creates glass ceilings for the very people that the Democrats are supposed to represent. Cronyism and tokenism is not a suitable substitution.

[Jackpine Radical]

19. Hillary's awake.

Just not enlightened.

[brooklynite]

22. Here's a thought: maybe she doesn't want to run for President...

...or, maybe she doesn't want to BE President, whether 10% support her or 60% do. At least that was what I took away from my lunch with her.

But feel free to dream...

[MannyGoldstein]

24. Here's another thought

Democrats lose when they foist Third Way velociraptors on us.

[brooklynite]

50. Well then, better get to work finding a progressive alternative who wants to run...

...rather than indulging in fantasies.

[TBF]

25. Your special lunches aside,

some people just aren't that into her.

[Rex]

23. She's not running so stop saying that!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

26. (margin of sampling error +/- 6.4%).

So Elizabeth Warren cut a forty five point lead to a forty point lead and that five percent closing is less than the margin of error.

[SidDithers]

27. Clap for Tinkerbell!! Clap as hard as you can!!...nt

Sid

[wyldwolf]

35. Everyone bookmark this thread.

We'll revisit in in mid-2016 to see how Manny's prognostication worked out.

For the record:

Warren took numbers from Biden, um, Hillary (yeah, math doesn't matter) AND Warren will be polling at 80%.

[MannyGoldstein]

36. I said Warren took numbers from Hillary?

In which thread did I write that?

Or are you not yet fluent in English?

[wyldwolf]

37. "Elizabeth Warren, *not* running, gains on Hillary!" - Yup, you said it.

[MannyGoldstein]

38. I guess your fluency's the issue then

I understand. English is a challenging language for learners. But with a bit more study, you'll get the hang of it.

[wyldwolf]

40. I guess your back peddling's the issue, then

I understand. Math is a challenging concept for learners. But with a bit more study, you'll get the hang of it.

[MannyGoldstein]

41. Also, the contraction of "you are" is "you're"

Not as big of a deal as your misunderstanding my clear sentence, but something else to be aware of.

[wyldwolf]

42. Back peddling and a spelling nazi to boot!

[MannyGoldstein]

43. I value precision

You don't, we get that.

[wyldwolf]

44. you fall back on diversions and irrelevancy

[MannyGoldstein]

45. I fall back on the plain meaning of the English language.

Please stop making stuff up.

[wyldwolf]

46. and your definition of that is different than everyone else's.

[MannyGoldstein]

47. Doubtful. nt

[wyldwolf]

48. on display daily. But it works for you, I suppose.

[craigmatic]

39. Not news Warren is from Ma.

[calimary]

49. I like the "rand paul seems to be tanking" part. rand paul SHOULD be tanking!

Let's hope he stays that way.