General Discussion

malaise

(268,967 posts) Sat Oct 11, 2014, 06:10 PM Oct 2014

Fay Skirts Bermuda; Vongfong Pounds Okinawa; Hudhud Bearing Down on India

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2826
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Tropical Storm Fay is here, the sixth named storm of this quiet 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. Fay's formation date of October 10 comes just over a month later than the typical September 8 formation date for the season's sixth named storm. Bermuda is the only land area Fay poses a threat to, and the 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Bermuda an 87% chance of seeing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, with the strongest winds expected to affect the island Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Satellite loops on Saturday morning showed the typical view of a tropical storm experiencing high wind shear, with a surface circulation nearly exposed to view, and the heavy thunderstorms restricted to one quadrant--to the northwest. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) were warm, near 29°C (84°F), and wind shear was high, 20 - 25 knots. Fay will recurve to the northeast out to sea on Sunday without troubling any other land areas.

In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20% and 60%, respectively. 90L's west-northwest trajectory will bring heavy rains over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Sunday, and these rains will spread westwards to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Sunday night, and to the eastern Dominican Republic on Monday. Interaction with the high terrain of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may slow down development on Monday and Tuesday. The storm's center will be near Puerto Rico on Monday, and near the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands by Wednesday. After that time, the vast majority of the members of the GFS and European ensemble model show 90L getting caught up in a trough of low pressure and scooting to the north and then northeast, possibly putting Bermuda at risk. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft has been tasked to investigate 90L on Sunday afternoon.