Gov Quinn looks likely to be re-elected (Never thought I'd get to say it)

[rpannier]

Last edited Tue Oct 14, 2014, 06:30 AM - Edit history (2)

With a few weeks to go Gov Quinn D-IL, one of the nations least popular governors in the country, appears likely to get re-elected. The Governor presently has a +2 and +3 in two recent polls, that is within the margin of error. But the polls are Rassmussen which was +2 at the end of September and WeAskAmerica from Oct 8.
Both We Ask and Rasmussen methodologies tend to skew for Republicans. So it's likely that Quinn is closer to +5, maybe +6 with less than a month to go.
I thought he was in serious trouble and might actually lose. But the billionaire schlub he is up against has not run a particularly smooth campaign.
Quinn is probably aided by being close to Wisconsin and Rauner has been plugging the Walker-like credentials he wants to bring to Illinois.
Also, he has run an intensely negative campaign focusing little on how he will make the state better, only on why Quinn sucks.
Most voters in Illinois think Quinn sucks. So all Rauner is doing is repeating something people think without explaining why he'd be better.

Other notes from polls on non-Illinois governor's races:

Wisconsin: In the most recent poll(s) I can find Walker and Burke are a nail biter down to the wire. The most recent poll (CBS/NYT/YouGov Oct 1) has Burke up by 1. But the Marquette Poll from Sep 28 has Walker up by 5

Michigan has had 4 polls released since Oct1 and only 1 has Schauer leading. Snyder has never really trailed all summer

Florida: 3 polls since the 1st of October, only one has Scott leading, the other 2 say Crist. Since May, the polls have leaned toward Crist winning

Pennsylvania: Could only find one polls since mid-September that didn't have Wolf over 50%. Mercyhurst had Wolf at 43 and Corbett at 28. Otherwise all polls have shown Wolf above 50 and double digits ahead of Corbett

Alaska. Not sure if this was political opportunism on the part of the Democratic Party or what. But the Party dumped nominee Mallott and are supporting Bill Walker. Don't know much about Walker except for these two things: 1. He was the former mayor of Valdez; and 2. all polls I could find have him +5 or more ahead of Gov Parnell (Even Rasmussen has him at +5)

Kansas. There have been 7 polls released in the last couple of weeks and only two have Brownback and one of them is Fox News. (The other is CBS/NYT/YouGov). The most reliable polls (PPP and Marist) have Davis slightly ahead. In four polls he's at 45% or above. Neither has broken 50%

Arkansas. There have been only three polls taken in the last 15 days (Rasmussen, CBS, Fox) and all of them have Mike Ross behind by 4 or more points. It's likely that Hutchinson is going to win.

[cate94]

1. I hope you are right

about Quinn. He hasn't been great but I do think he is way better than Rauner could ever be...

[rpannier]

9. Quinn is a good example of having high name recognition, even if it's

negative

Rauner can't find anything knew to talk about, so his constant negative ads doesn't necessarily hurt Quinn because people already know it and believe it or don't care any longer.
So, he has to find something new to talk about and he hasn't.
Usually someone who is disliked as much as Quinn is would find themselves dead in the water by now if the opponent was not a loon, a moron or someone the public has serious misgivings about and would rather just go with the guy they know.

Kasich in Ohio is a good example.
If the Dems had run a half-way decent candidate he'd be gone.

[mucifer]

2. I wish we had better choices. But, rauner is truly scary.

It looked like rahm had a fairly decent challenger in Karen Lewis the popular head of the Chicago Teacher's Union. But, sadly she was just diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor.

The tv ads are awful here and rauner has more money. I'm hoping Quinn can pull it off.

[Stuart G]

3. Thanks for your service on putting up the polls...k and r

Very informative..

[Stellar]

4. Rauner was the first Republic0n that sent me some literature...ever!

I'm in a safe Democratic district and was surprised to get it. He really must've thought he had a good chance against Quinn. But, I think the worse piss-poor Democratic candidate is better than a Republic0n any day.

[riqster]

5. GOTV will make it so.

[City Lights]

7. I sure hope so!

He's got 4 votes from my household.

[Chisox08]

8. I'm doing my part to help keep

Koch brother jr. out of office. After Quinn hopefully wins reelection I'm turning my focus on running Rahm Emanuel out of office in Chicago.