Americans’ Outlook for U.S. Economy Soars on Hiring and Gasoline

[Purveyor]

By Danielle Trubow Oct 16, 2014 9:45 AM ET

Americans’ expectations for the economy in October climbed to the highest level in almost two years as a pickup in hiring, falling gasoline prices, and low borrowing costs heartened households.

A measure tracking the economic outlook climbed to 51 this month, the strongest since November 2012, from 41.5 in September, data from the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed today. The weekly sentiment index was little changed at 36.2 for the period ended Oct. 12 from 36.8.

The lowest jobless rate since 2008 and the cheapest gasoline costs in a year probably combined to lift households’ spirits about the future. The upbeat mood may be difficult to sustain as stocks slump and concern grows that the Ebola virus poses a wider health risk.

The “likeliest suspects” for the jump in expectations were the increase in hiring and the drop in gasoline prices, Gary Langer, president of Langer Research Associates LLC in New York, which compiles the comfort index for Bloomberg, said in a statement. “Still the stock market last week sustained its largest one-week decline in more than two years.”

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-16/americans-outlook-for-u-s-economy-soars-on-hiring-and-gasoline.html

[global1]

1. Yesterday The Stock Market Reacted Adversely To The News That Oil Prices Were Down....

I just don't understand why lower oil prices - hence gas prices at the pump would be lower - is bad news for the Wall Street crowd?

Seems to me - lower oil prices means that American's will have more money in their pockets to spend because they won't be spending it on high gas prices. Seems to me that lower oil prices mean that the cost of air travel might become more affordable. Seems to me that products made with oil could benefit from lower oil prices.

It this is so - why did Wall Street react adversely to that news?

[Fumesucker]

3. World shipping is down, the economy as a whole has been cooling off

This the the Baltic Dry Index for the last year, it's a measure of world shipping despite the name and this curve shows world shipping and hence the physical economy is trending down over the last year.

[global1]

4. What Does The Falling Price Of Oil Have To Do With Shipping Being Down?.....

Is it because they're not shipping oil because it's price is too low?

Seems to me here that if oil prices are down - even shipping becomes more affordable - cheaper fuel.

I would think that falling oil prices would be a boost to the economy and I just don't understand why it's not.

[Tweedy]

5. Wall Street betting on higher prices?

Perhaps Wall Street bet the price would go up. Otherwise, I agree with you. It makes little sense.

[Fumesucker]

6. Shiipping uses a great deal of oil

Those giant container ships run on a very heavy and dense diesel fuel, huge tanks of it running into engines several stories tall.

Also a slowing economy means people drive less, are more frugal with their heating and cooling and so on.

Once the economy starts picking up again oil will bounce up too and then the economy will cool off for a while until the whole cycle repeats.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

2. Gas was down to $2.99 on Tuesday, Wednesday it went up to $3.17

Go figure.

[Purveyor]

7. Ours (Jackson, MI) did the same thing. Went up to 3.24 but already heading

back down at 3.19 today. Crude is up today +1.25, 82.19bbl.