Southern Evangelicals: Dwindling—and Taking the GOP Edge With Them

[JI7]

it's actually the republicans in these races who should be leading by more. they are traditionally very conservative states, they are the party that is out of the white house, the president's popularity is not very high.

ignorant media whores on TV only talk of horse races and they would like to claim republican wins in red states means something for the country. when everything we know means there should be no surprise with republicans winning these races. what is a surprise is how much more they are having to put into to keep these seats.



<Midterm elections are all about turning out base constituencies. Over the last few decades, there have been few more reliable voters for Republicans than white evangelical Protestants. This year, however, GOP candidates may be getting less help from this group—not because white evangelical Protestants are becoming less supportive or less motivated, but simply because they are declining as a proportion of the population, even in Southern states.

A look at generational differences demonstrates that this is only the beginnings of a major shift away from a robust white evangelical presence and influence in the country. While white evangelical Protestants constitute roughly three in 10 (29 percent) seniors (age 65 and older), they account for only one in 10 (10 percent) members of the Millennial generation (age 18-29). In the last few national elections, however, because of high levels of voter turnout, white evangelical Protestants have managed to maintain an outsized presence at the ballot box according to national exit polls, representing roughly one-quarter of voters.

But the fact that there are currently five Southern states—Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, and North Carolina— where polling shows that the Senate race margins are less than five percentage points indicates that 2014 may be the year that the underlying demographic trends finally exert enough force to make themselves felt. These changes are evident in analysis based on the American Values Atlas, a massive interactive online map of demographic and religious diversity in America based on 45,000 interviews conducted throughout 2013, created by the Public Religion Research Institute in partnership with Social Science Research Solutions.>



http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2014/10/the-shriking-evangelical-voter-pool/381560/

[Dont call me Shirley]

1. People are forced to quit church because they can no longer afford the 10-15% tithing fee.

That's my hypothesis, and I'm sticking to it.

[JI7]

3. nope, desperate poor people have been giving to church for years

the older people who were the evangelicals who support reagan and other republicans continue to vote the same and are religious as always.

but the younger generations are not as religious. so while old ones die off the younger ones are not replacing them at the same levels.

many younger wingnut types also tend to be more libertarian types rather than religious.

[Wellstone ruled]

2. Bottom line

All of the hateful old geezer thumpers are crooking. Looking at the latest projections as to age and religion,looks like the next batch of old hateful geezers are much fewer in number. Don't tell the Rethugs this cause it might those dang death panels at work.

[JI7]

4. the newer ones are still hateful but they are libertarian

the thing with the south is that despite separation of church and state the church has been a big thing in getting out the vote for republicans.

it's not just their personal beliefs but it's the entire organization. they can depend on the whole thing from giving money to campaigns, organizing and getting people to get out and vote.

the libertarian types are less likely to be this involved. if they vote they will vote republican but they are less likely to have that entire structure in place . there aren't thep eople who will continually be in their life to make sure they gave money, went out and voted and whatever else.

[Hortensis]

8. Con leaders are desperate to maintain the fiction that libertarians have a lot in common

with social and religious conservatives, when, in fact, in all but economic issues most libertarians are practically identical to liberals. OTOH, there are actually very few genuine libertarians... Far fewer than the conservatives who are uncomfortable with the today's GOP and grabbed this as another label to wear on their lapels, so this discussion'll probably disappear before too long. About the time their leaders want them to march along a MLK Boulevard somewhere shoulder to shoulder with a very mixed crowd of civil libertarians. Or give them fliers to hand out arguing for the freedom to open auto repair shops in their garages.

[JI7]

9. nope, they actually do have more in common with republicans and are nothing like liberals

this is why they vote republican mostly. and why libertarian candidates who can get a following are a threat to republican candidates.

[Hortensis]

11. Yes, the ECONOMIC conservative orientation apparently trumps individual rights these days.

Most libertarians do strongly support today's conservative policies. But social conservatism is inimical to the beliefs of true libertarians, and most TPers, members of the religious right, and white supremacists are social conservatives. Fact is, most people calling themselves libertarian these days aren't true libertarians, just Republicans looking for a new label. Undoubtedly a passing fad...

[liberal_at_heart]

5. when they're gone, can we concentrate on economic issues instead making every election about

religious extremists?

[Fumesucker]

6. Praise Jesus!

[NightWatcher]

7. As people leave the church, the church feeling desperate, becomes more extreme

and as the church becomes more extreme in nature, the more people tend to leave with only the most fundamentalist staying behind.

I think the same is happening for the republican party as a whole. That, and their old, white racist base is dying off.

[Hortensis]

10. Good news, but not comforting yet.

I worry about all the disaffected conservatives who have come to believe the government our founding fathers established to be the protector of our freedoms is itself the enemy of freedom. Add to them the dominionist philosophy that has infiltrated literally tens of thousands of conservative congregations AND the mainstream conservative movement to redefine freedom and the role of government in America, and I'm not ready to stop worrying for the stability of our republic yet. Too many deluded people will not vote, much less fight, to save what they believe is already lost or needs to be destroyed.