US Ebola infection/incubation timeline 10.24.14
Days since Duncan's death (Oct. 8)......16 days -- 76 people provided care to Duncan before his death. As of today, two nurses, Nina Pham and Amber Vinson, have shown symptoms and infection has been confirmed. No new infections have been reported.
Days since Pham showed symptoms (Oct. 10).....14 days -- One person is being observed as having direct contact with Pham after she showed symptoms. Pham is now Ebola-free. No new infections have been reported.
Days since Vinson showed symptoms (Oct. 14)......10 days -- Vinson flew on a commercial flight (with some 100 other passengers) from Cleveland to Dallas with a temperature of 99.4 degrees. She was quarantined and transferred to Emory. Her family reports she is now Ebola-free. No new infections have been reported.
Days since Vinson reported Ebola-free (Oct. 23)......1 day.
Days since Pham confirmed Ebola-free (Oct. 24).....0 days.
Days since Dr. Spencer showed symptoms (Oct. 22).....1 day. Dr. Spencer reported a slight fever, at 100.3, on the night of October 22 and was isolated on the morning of October 23.
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Although the incubation period is up to 21 days, the incubation period of this strain is 7-10 days in most people who become infected.
Both Pham and Vinson were isolated when they had no symptoms other than a low-grade fever. Their viral load was low and it is unlikely they infected anyone prior to isolation. Dr. Spencer was isolated with a low-grade fever and is unlikely to have infected anyone.
The 74 other people in the same class/timeline as Pham and Vinson have passed through the most critical period, now at 16 days since exposure to Duncan. If more post-isolation workers had been infected, they would most likely have shown symptoms already. However, they do have another 5 days before the 21 day incubation watch period expires.
Pham's one pre-isolation contact is on their 14th day. They too are exiting the point were they would be most likely to show symptoms if infected. However, they do have 7 days before the 21 day incubation watch period expires.
Vinson's pre-isolation contacts are nearing the end of the most critical period at 10 days now, with 11 to go.
Pham and Vinson have each been reported as Ebola-free. Pham is being released today.