Goldman Cuts Brent and West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Forecast By $15 For 2015

[Purveyor]

(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs cuts its price forecast for Brent and West Texas Intermediate by $15 a barrel for the first quarter of 2015, saying rising production in non-OPEC countries outside North America is expected to outstrip demand.

The U.S. investment bank cut its forecast for WTI to $75 a barrel from $90 and for Brent to $85 a barrel from $100, it said in a research note on Sunday.

The bank's analysts expect WTI to fall to as low as $70 a barrel and Brent to $80 a barrel during the second quarter of next year, when it expects oversupply to be the most pronounced. Prices are forecast to rise back to $75 for U.S. and $85 for Brent for the second half of 2015, Goldman said.

U.S. crude futures edged up on Monday to hold above $81 a barrel, following a four-week slide that has pulled prices down by nearly 10 percent amid abundant supply amid and weak demand.

NYMEX crude for December delivery was up 4 cents at $81.05 a barrel by 0104 GMT, after settling down $1.08 on Friday following a spike up on Thursday on news that Saudi Arabia had boosted production but cut supplies to the market in September.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/10/27/oil-forecast-goldman-idINKBN0IG07J20141027

[bluestateguy]

1. One of the few things Wall Street and environmentalists agree upon

Is that they both don't like lower oil prices.

[Gothmog]

2. I think that this is an overreaction to market forces

I doubt that WTI will get to $70

[FBaggins]

3. It's too-far/too-fast, but $70 is very possible.

Last edited Sat Feb 13, 2021, 07:10 PM - Edit history (2)

I'll agree with "overreaction to market forces" if what you mean is that the current supply/demand picture doesn't support the current price.

However, pricing is also impacted by expectations for supply/demand for the intermediate future. If OPEC doesn't get their act together in the near future, 2015 could definitely be oversupplied... which can certainly send prices below $70/bbl.

Now... OPEC certainly has the ability to prop prices up by agreeing to a substantial production cut, but they're also trying to see how low prices need to go before US shale production takes a big hit. There's some debate re: whether $70 is low enough to do the job.