MSNBC: polls now showing GOP winning big in Colorado & Arkansas? What's going on???

[napkinz]

Just saw on MSNBC new poll numbers:

Cory Gardner (R) over Mark Udall (D), 46% to 39%

Tom Cotton (R) over Mark Pryor (D), 49% to 36%

What happened? I thought these races were close?

Sh*t!

[Dawson Leery]

1. "Issues & Answers Network"?

Who are these people? This year we have seen a record number of new and untested pollsters.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Arkansas,_2014#Polling

[OffWithTheirHeads]

2. Don't believe anything you see on corporate media. Just vote.

[napkinz]

3. Of course I'm going to vote; nothing will deter me

I was just shocked by these new numbers. I was hoping members from those states might enlighten me as to what's going on their states.

[HERVEPA]

4. Arkansas has not been close for a while

[cali]

6. and Colorado has been trending toward Gardner for quite a while.

[napkinz]

7. both states were listed as ties just a few days ago

what could have happened to cause such a shift?

What is it Rachel often says, someone "talk me down"?

[HERVEPA]

28. A tie in one poll doesn't mean anything. Must aggregate polls.

[madville]

29. It's not much of a shift, been that way for about a month

Over the last month Cotton has polled an average if +7 in Arkansas and Gardner has been about +3 in Colorado.

[RoverSuswade]

31. Cotton scares the hell out of me.

He's a combination of Ted Cruz disgust and Dan Quayle arrogance.

[Art_from_Ark]

19. The Arkansas opinion polls are all over the place

Even the recent NBC/Marist polls taken during the same time period show two different results-- 45% to 43% for Cotton, with a sample size of 621, but 43% to 42% for Pryor, with a sample size of 971.

[sailfla]

5. 24 hr news.. that's all they got

If it weren't for polls and all these pseudo scandals there would be no 24 hr news channels.

First thing this morning, one changed by eight points since yesterday So there!

Gimme a fuckin break

[csziggy]

8. Do they have early voting? Are Democrats voting earlier than Republicans?

I voted early - on the second day of early voting here in Florida. Suddenly the number of polling calls I had been getting dropped to almost nothing. The week before I got five polling calls. Last week I got one. My husband got one Monday and when he said he'd already voted the pollster apologized and asked no more questions.

The end of last week the Supervisor of Elections in our heavily Democratic county announced that turnout for early voting is very heavy - much higher that it was in the last midterm election for the same period of early voting. Maybe it helps that he increased the early polling locations from four to seven, but he was impressed at the higher turnout. I think the Gwen Graham campaign is really working hard at GOTV and it's working!

My point is that if the early voters are not included in the polls, and if the early voters are predominately Democrats, that would skew the poll numbers to Republican voter preferences.

[napkinz]

9. MSNBC provided the numbers early this afternoon without analysis or commentary

that's why I posted ... hoping for someone to explain the new numbers

[Demsrule86]

11. What is to explain?

The polls are all over the place.

[YarnAddict]

53. I heard that in Colorado

Gardner is actually ahead by over 100,000 votes in early voting. The R's are working on getting their voters out early, too.

[Demsrule86]

10. I don't buy it.

I believe the races are very close...and it could be anyone. If we get out and vote, we can save the Senate.

[Robbins]

12. PPP

Have both the governor's and senate race In Col tied.

Can I remind people In 2010 polls had Buck winning the senate seat and governor's race much closer than it was.

In 2012 Obama did better than polls had it.

As for arkansas this Is perhapes a case of state completly going to GOP to stick to black guy.

[Ykcutnek]

13. Two states with poor polling in the past. nt

[napkinz]

15. I think it was a Quinnipiac poll

nt

[Atman]

14. Lying, cheating and stealing.

Americans are very stupid people. Oh, and MSNBC has about twelve viewers.

[hack89]

16. Undecided voters are making up their minds. nt

[GGJohn]

17. This may have something to do with the gun control laws pushed through

and signed by Gov. Hickenlooper.

[beevul]

52. May? MAY?

Rushing the bills through in a way that prevented comment from constituents, and all the other shenanigans having to do with the junk gun laws passed over there, and the perceived skullduggery engaged in when passing them, has a whole lot of people over there rightfully pissed off.

We'll see how much of an exclamation point that turns into, come election day.

I suspect its going to be a costly day...Not that I think that the culture warrior anti-gun types have any interest in taking credit for it.

[LittleBlue]

18. We abused their trust

People actually expected hope and change. They didn't know hope and change meant TPP and H1-B visas.

[Jamaal510]

25. There has been hope and change:

More: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-obama-hope-and-change-index-6-years-of-progress-by-the-numbers-20141008#ixzz3FaSanEZZ

Private sector jobs created: 10.3 million
Federal deficit, 2009: 9.8 percent of GDP
Deficit in 2014: 2.8 percent of GDP
Average under Ronald Reagan: 4.2 percent of GDP
Average tax rate for highest earners 2008: 28.1 percent
Average tax rate for highest earners 2013: 33.6 percent
Banks regulated as too big to fail, 2009: 0
Banks regulated as "systemically important financial institutions" — a.k.a. too big to fail — 2014: 29
Billions returned to consumers by Consumer Financial Protection Bureau enforcement: $4.6 billion
Americans compensated for being swindled by banks, lenders and credit card companies: 15 million

Pell grant funding 2008-2009: $18 billion
Pell grant funding 2013-2014: $33 billion
Adults gaining insurance under first year of Obamacare: 10.3 million
As a percentage of the uninsured: 26
Annual cost for birth control prior to Obamacare: Up to $600
Annual cost for birth control under Obamacare-compliant policies: $0
Prescriptions now required to obtain emergency contraception: 0
2009 projection for Medicare going broke: 2017
2014 projection for Medicare going broke: 2030

This is actually quite an impressive list, considering how much the GOP has obstructed this president since Day 1 while many voters have turned the other cheek and NOT show up for Congressional elections in 2010, paving the way for more gerrymandering and gridlock. If anyone has abused trust, it has been the Republicans for their BSing around and their cynical politics, blocking bills and hoping that less people participate in the political process.

[LittleBlue]

27. Those are just doctored and/or cherry picked numbers

People see their wealth evaporating while the 1% get richer. The average person doesn't even know what a Pell Grant is. 10.3 million jobs over 6 years doesn't even keep up with population growth. Black wealth falling farther than under any president since the Great Depression.

http://breakingbrown.com/2014/10/black-wealth-has-fallen-further-under-barack-obama-than-under-any-president-since-the-depression/

If things are so great, why are we going to do so badly at the mid-term elections?

[strawberries]

43. perception is reality

We keep hearing how much better we are doing, but I don't feel it. Those I've talked to are still waiting for things to get better. Throw all the stats up you want, but folks don't feel like things have turned around for the better.

[Rex]

20. The M$M has a bias toward the GOP, in a way they are the GOPs biggest supporter.

The M$M paymasters are all GOP and make sure the country votes the way they want it to. Been that way since 2000. I think what is different this time around is that the M$M is scared shitless of a bigger minority turnout than other midterms.

[shraby]

21. Probably likely voters called in the gerrymandered districts.

[kelly1mm]

39. How do you gerrymander a statewide Senate seat? nt

[Cleita]

22. Polls can't be trusted and they always seem to favor the Repubs in close races just

before the election to discourage Dems from voting. Just go vote. This ploy as old as last century.

[napkinz]

24. of course I'm voting ...

just shocked by these new numbers and wondering what happened

[Eleanors38]

41. Wish it weren't the case, but in close elections...

Gun issues get magnified.

[woolldog]

23. Ebola is what happened. nt

[FSogol]

48. Ebola will cause people to vote for the party that is against public healthcare?

[Cha]

26. Final Gallup Poll in 2012.. Just sayin'..

[HERVEPA]

30. Gallup was a total outlier and anyone following things knew it was garbage.

[Cha]

32. Yeah, Just Sayin' GOTV.. It's a Ground Game! Good LUCK to Sens Mark Pryor and Mark Udall!

[HERVEPA]

38. Yes. I agree for sure. GOTV.

[Trajan]

34. So, your message is - believe these polls, because they are not outliers like Gallup was?

nt

[HERVEPA]

37. Good Grief. Gallup was the main outlier.

The aggregate of the other polls predicted things almost perfectly.
That said, not so easy in non-presidential year, so yes, of course GOTV is important.

[otohara]

33. Guns

Blame the fucking guns.

They won't throw out Hickenlooper because Beauprez said he'd do what ever he could to undo our marijuana law.
The GOP would rather give up guns than pot.

[madamesilverspurs]

35. It's still tight.

Back in 2010, the polls had Ken Buck winning the Colorado Senate race, right up until the polls closed. Michael Bennet won.

Since then, Citizens United happened, more people have ditched landlines and don't answer polling calls on their cell phones, and the state has gone to a new system with every registered voter receiving a ballot in the mail; and there is same day registration and voting.

Believe me, we're still very much boots on the ground with GOTV: teabaggers and misogynists need to be removed in some cases, prevented from succeeding in others. It ain't dull!

[marlakay]

36. Daughter in Colorado says massive fear campaign

They are going door to door, calling, mail and it's all negative.

In her area close to Colorado Springs, she is in Monument it is all about abortion and wasteful spending lazy welfare democrats.

She said even the dem candidate was fearful saying you will lose your birth control.

Since she is not political like me she just thought both sides were fear mongering.

[ellie]

45. I don't know

I am a liberal. Very liberal. Cory Gardner's people call me constantly as do the NRA! The fucking NRA! They can take their guns and shove them up their ass. My takeaway from this is that Gardner is desperate by wasting resources begging for votes from Democrats.

[marlakay]

47. My daughter is listed as independent

So both sides are bugging her constantly.

But your right I am ultra liberal in my red area of WA state and I still get lots of mail from republicans.

[ellie]

50. The next time they call

I am going to answer and see what they have to say.

[kaiserhog]

40. PPP Polls

Show both races tied.

[librechik]

42. Repubs getting their mail-in ballots earlier than Dems.

Retirees have more time than women working three jobs. It's all by design.

[Hotler]

44. Lots of transplants here in the last 2-3yrs.. .....

and big share are from California and Texas and Denver is reflecting this. Denver is now the new Los Angeles. Lots of new repugs here trashing the place. Stop and go traffic everywhere.

[Samantha]

46. Last evening on MSNBC, it was announced Hogan has pulled ahead of Brown by 5 points in Maryland's

Governor's race. Maryland is a deep, blue state. Brown has consistently been polling ahead of Hogan by about 9 points (some pollsters have given him a better margin). I sat there in a moment of shock, thinking about Hogan's stance on assault rifles. He thinks it is okay for citizens to have them and supports open carry laws, no background checks. And that is just one of his demented stances on issues. He even refuses to support removing rights to buy guns and carry them for people on the government's suspected terrorist list. Need one say more?

I was very depressed after hearing this until I remembered Hogan's campaign had announced this as a result of a poll it had conducted. I also remembered one other thing: Republicans chronically lie. If enough people think the election is already cooked, they won't bother to vote.

I can't think of any reason why the tide would have changed a minimum of 15 points in just a few days from Brown to Hogan. Additionally, none of the major pollsters are showing this result.

I think there is a lot of exaggeration going on by Republicans to depress the electorate. It is always a goal of theirs to increase the misery index upon the population and convince the people the problems are always Obama's fault. They cannot win through developing good ideas the people like, so they resort to a myriad of underhanded maneuvers.

If my analysis is wrong and Hogan does actually take Maryland, you guys might not hear from me for the next four years because what I would have to say would not be banned on DU.

Sam

[thevoiceofreason]

49. MSNBC is unbelieveably using Real Clear Politics

They are a poll aggregator, but they slant heavily toward the Republicans, especially on Senate and Governor races. They slant by giving undue weight to R pollsters and less weight to moderate or D pollsters. Get RCP's number, add 2 to the democrat and subtract 2 from the republican. Then you are closer to normal.

[kentuck]

51. I think Colorado is too close to call.

I'm hoping the progressive Governor will pull Udall over the line.

[alp227]

54. Doesn't help that the biggest newspapers in their states went Republican.

The Ark. Democrat-Gazette endorsed Tom Cotton. The Denver Post endorsed Gardner. (But newspapers are LIBERAL are they not?)

[TSIAS]

55. Polls

The last conservative Democratic Senator in AR, Blanche Lincoln, lost by more than 20 % in 2010. Pryor will suffer a somewhat less humiliating defeat.

I don't know about CO. I think that race is much closer, and with the new voting system it might be harder to poll that state.

[kelliekat44]

56. No black people there and mostly rich, bigots. nt

[Algernon Moncrieff]

57. My guess: backlash to legalized pot

Guns is another cause.