General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNate Silver's gubernatorial forecast.
I'll just list the key races.
Conn: 50/50 No Call
ME: 56% D
CO: 59% D
FL: 60% D
AK: 56% I
IL: 59% D
MI: 72% R
WI: 76% R
KS: 81% D
MA: 80% R
GA: 87% R
RI: 76% D
NH: 98% D
ARK: 96% R
MD: 93% D
PA: 99% D
HI: 97% D
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/governors-forecasts-a-lot-of-close-races/
catbyte
(34,502 posts)HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)catbyte
(34,502 posts)HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)and another is historic voting patterns...
If GOTV breaks historic patterns those weights turn out to be wrong.
But, it seems many people are more comfortable voting by absentee than in the past...so there is no way to know if early voting = better turn out or if it just shifts voters from election day to earlier...
We'll know Wednesday morning.
LukeFL
(594 posts)NutmegYankee
(16,204 posts)I think he is actually toast because the third candidate, Visconti, is polling 7% based on his opposition to the gun law after Sandy hook. If those voters switch to Foley, it's over.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,169 posts)Oy...........I hope that's wrong.
4bucksagallon
(975 posts)IDemo
(16,926 posts)How could they?
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)If that gets stood on it's head, so will the outcome.
The polls show it within the margin of error. Which means hacking the black-boxes to gain a few percent is all too possible in western WI
BlueStater
(7,596 posts)What in the name of fuck is wrong with that state?
The stupid just burns.
Greybnk48
(10,178 posts)I may be sheltered, but I don't believe it.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)magical thyme
(14,881 posts)please
Both Nate and Princeton give Michaud the edge....please let them be right again. Please.
gollygee
(22,336 posts)Please let him be wrong! I can't bear it. Snyder must go!!