do not believe the polls

[questionseverything]

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/27203-vote-counts-and-polls-an-insidious-feedback-loop

read this and simon will explain why


<But the problem with the LVCM as a corrective is that it far overshoots the mark. That is, it eliminates individuals from the sample who will in fact cast a vote, and the respondents/voters so eliminated, as a group, are acknowledged by all to be to the left of those who remain in the sample, skewing the sample to the right (a sound methodology, employed for a brief time by The New York Times/CBS poll, would solve the participation problem by down-weighting, but not eliminating, the responses of interviewees less likely to vote). So the LVCM - which disproportionately eliminates members of the Democratic constituency, including many who will in fact go on to cast a vote, by falsely assigning them a zero percent chance of voting - should get honestly tabulated elections consistently wrong. It should over-predict the Republican vote and under-predict the Democratic vote - by just about enough to cover the margins in the kind of tight races that determine the control of Congress and key state legislatures.>

[The Blue Flower]

1. Remember Mitt in 2012

He never doubted what his polls told him.

[spanone]

2. remember eric cantor just a few months ago!!!!

[tomm2thumbs]

5. yep, he got the 4-minute mile ran all over his face

and no one said the 4-minute mile was possible until it happened, and then it was duplicated over and over -- AND OVER!

[JaneyVee]

6. They had Mitt up 48-43 weekend b4 election..

He didn't even bother writing a concession speech.

[brooklynite]

3. Is the OP saying the cases are NOT close?

If so, they're as deluded as the "Unskewed Polls" people were.

[questionseverything]

10. snip

<<To sum up, we have a right-shifting, tunable fudge factor in the LVCM, now universally employed with great success to predict electoral outcomes, particularly when tuned to its highest degree of distortion. And we have the incorporation of past election manipulations into current polling samples, again pushing the results to the right. These methodological contortions and distortions could not be successful absent a consistent concomitant distortion of the vote counts in competitive races - noncompetitive races tend neither to be polled (no horserace interest) nor rigged (an outcome reversal wouldn't pass the smell test).>


in plain language he is saying the polls are manipulated to favor republicans so when the count is rigged no one notices

[hack89]

4. You sound like my repuke coworkers just before Mitt got his ass handed to him.

they didn't believe the polls either.

[Mutiny In Heaven]

7. Yep. There's typically more margin of error in midterms

But if the Democrats hang on it's going to be a skin of the teeth situation. The outlook isn't as bleak as it was for Romney a day before the vote, but anything other than a GOP takeover would still represent a sizeable upset.

[B Calm]

11. I remember the look on their faces of disbelief. One said to me in front of my coworkers, I imagine

you are happy today. I replied, the MAJORITY of Americans are! LOL

[Skidmore]

8. Forget the polls. The most important one is in the election booth.

Get yourself there. I have turned off the coverage today and it will stay off tomorrow. I know how I'm going to vote. What is in the media is speculation until the vote is counted.

[True Blue Door]

9. Don't disbelieve the polls either. Expect whatever happens.

That way you are never caught off guard.