What's that Princeton guy said recently?

[elleng]

Anyone know?

[kelly1mm]

1. R 51, D 49. linky:

http://election.princeton.edu/

[elleng]

2. Thanks.

'Late tonight I’ll give actual predictions (and give you a chance to record your own predictions).'

'In the meantime, here’s your morning reading: an excellent analysis by David Rothschild, Sharad Goel, and Houshmand Shirani-Mehr on the problems endemic to current polling practice. They analyze 2012 in great detail, and identify errors that go well beyond sampling error. Because these errors are unlikely to have been fully corrected this year, they think there’s a good chance that Democrats will outperform poll aggregates. In other words, all poll aggregators, including PEC, might carry a hidden bias. My own view is that based on historical data, errors have gone in either direction by several percentage points across the board. Go read their article!'