GOP Wins Don't Alter 2016 Math: Our View
The Editorial Board, 1:41 a.m. EST November 5, 2014
No doubt there is much celebrating among Republicans after having recaptured the Senate majority they lost in 2006, and rightly so. They won by fielding a generally solid and disciplined roster of candidates who were able to capitalize on President Obama's unpopularity and outperformed the expectations set by pre-election polls. Unlike 2010 and 2012, the GOP didn't throw away easily winnable races with extreme or inept nominees.
Republicans are also thrilled with the strong showing of their gubernatorial candidates, who were poised to sweep all of the close races and pick up one or two unexpected ones, including victories in heavily Democratic Maryland and Massachusetts.
But the celebrations should be brief. The Republican victory in the Senate — made possible in part by the target-rich environment of 2014, in which Democrats had to defend seats in six very red states — does not alter the dismal math the GOP faces going forward.
With its low standing among the young, women and especially immigrant voters, the party faces a tall order in winning the White House in 2016, when turnout will spike by roughly 40% and include many of the marginal voters who tend to vote Democratic. Its control of the Senate could also be short-lived, as the electoral map in two years will be more favorable for the Democrats. Republicans will have to defend seven Senate seats in states twice won by Obama, while Democrats have no seats up in Republican states.
To sustain Tuesday's gains, Republicans will have to demonstrate that they can govern — and bring under control the extreme elements of the party that want to define the GOP by government shutdowns and other forms of obstructionism.
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/11/05/gop-republican-future-demographics-compromise-editorials-debates/18480863/
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