Jeff Masters - U.S. Lightning Strikes May Increase 50% Due to Global Warming

[malaise]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2860
<snip>
A warmer world will have much more dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning capable of igniting more forest fires, according to a study published Thursday in the Journal Science. The research found that for each degree Centigrade (1.8°F) of global warming, lightning in the U.S. is expected to increase by 12%. This would result in about a 50% increase in lightning by the year 2100, assuming business-as-usual emissions result in a world that is 4°C (7°F) warmer. Main author David Romps of the University of California-Berkeley said in a press release, “This has to do with water vapor, which is the fuel for explosive deep convection in the atmosphere. Warming causes there to be more water vapor in the atmosphere, and if you have more fuel lying around, when you get ignition, it can go big time…the faster the updrafts, the more lightning, and the more precipitation, the more lightning.” The study looked at U.S. lightning statistics for the year 2011, and discovered that a simple measure of atmospheric heat and moisture--the precipitation rate multiplied by the stability of the atmosphere (expressed as the Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE)--could describe 77% of the variation in lighting. By applying this simple measure to predicted levels of heat and moisture in a future warmer world, the scientists came up with their predictions for more lightning. The study makes sense from basic principles, and brings up three major concerns about the impacts of a future world with more lightning:

1) More lightning-caused fires
2) More lightning-caused ozone pollution and thus global warming
3) More lightning direct strike deaths and damages

[greytdemocrat]

1. An then again...

It might not.

ZAP!

[mucifer]

2. Go vegan!

Biggest easiest way to slow climate change.

[Quantess]

3. Does this mean the odds of winning powerball just increased?

[malaise]

4. Only if that is directly connected to

lightning

[Quantess]

5. When I saw this, I immediately thought of the advice

You have better odds of being struck twice in the same place by lightning than you do of winning powerball.

[malaise]

6. So they are connected - Good one

[Quantess]

7. In my odd train of thought,

Lightning is directly connected to the odds of winning powerball. If I ever get hit by lightning, I might actually go buy a powerball ticket afterward.

[UglyGreed]

8. K&R N/T