Salon.com: A Guide to The Most Laughable 2012 Election Predictions - So Far

[Hissyspit]

http://www.salon.com/2012/04/24/worst_primary_whiffs/?source=newsletter

TUESDAY, APR 24, 2012 07:45 AM EDT
Worst primary whiffs
A guide to the most laughable 2012 predictions -- so far

BY JIM NEWELL

The dirty little secret about political punditry, that is not actually a secret to anyone who watches and reads it, is that it’s all lies. It requires very little knowledge or skill, and there are no consequences for being wrong. For a major newspaper to fire one of its columnists for getting something wrong would bring down the whole pundit industry, as that logic would necessitate the firing of them all. Every election pundit is wrong about everything, nearly all the time, and there’s usually a direct correlation between a pundit’s frequency of wrongness and his or her status — see the Washington Post’s stable of columnists for a prime example. The entire punditocracy is a sham, but thank you for reading anyway.

Top-Tier Tim Pawlenty Is a Very Serious Candidate Who Will Go Far

“I think we know with reasonable certainty that standing up there on the West front of the Capitol on Jan. 20, 2013, will be one of three people,” intoned George Will, another longtime, defiantly not-retired Washington Post columnist, in May 2011. Here were the Three People, delivered with assured, flimsy gravitas: “Obama, [former Minnesota Gov. Tim] Pawlenty and [Indiana Gov. Mitch] Daniels. I think that’s it.” Well, Mitch Daniels didn’t run. And the victor may yet be President Obama, so this prediction still isn’t technically wrong. But Tim Pawlenty? Only a few of you readers will remember that name, but indeed, the Great Political Promise of Tim Pawlenty was once a whole “thing.”

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A Brief Interlude From Bill Kristol

Bill Kristol, the publisher of the neoconservative Weekly Standard, is the most notoriously wrong-all-the-time political commentator in America. The vocal advocate behind such hits as “the Iraq war will go swimmingly” and “Sarah Palin would be a great vice presidential candidate” typically spent most of this campaign season incorrectly speculating, or “reporting,” on which candidates would join the race. In a way, this made Kristol useful. We knew, for example, that a Rudy Giuliani for President 2012 campaign — however unlikely that ever was — would definitely never materialize after Bill Kristol wrote this on June 8, 2011: “I’m told by two reliable sources that Rudy Giuliani intends to run for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. He may throw his hat in the ring soon.”

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How could McKinnon say that with a straight face? The same way, we suppose, that he wrote columns titled “Sanford for President” and “Sanford Should Resign” on back-to-back days in 2009.

- snip -

There Is Nothing You Can Do to Stop Rick Perry

You remember the hyperbole. Rick Perry. Governor for 11 Years. Of a large state. Winner of 10 straight elections. Loves Jesus like no other. A virtuoso in the field of retail politics. Kills coyotes with his many guns. A true Southerner. Fucking hates abortion. Will destroy anyone in his way. Indeed, another great Résumé Candidate. And within 10 minutes of Perry’s late entry into the race, the pundit consensus was essentially that all primaries and caucuses should be canceled, Mitt Romney should jump off a cliff, and Rick Perry should be handed the nomination before he leaves the grounds of the Iowa State Fair.

MORE AT LINK[p]

[freshwest]

1. LOL. If only they'd fire them.

[southernyankeebelle]

2. Bill Kristol is always wrong. I don't understand why they keep having him on shows. He was the

one who brought us Sarah Palin. See how that worked out.

[JHB]

4. Because his being wrong is irrelevant to the shows.

He's one of the "Washington Insider" club and he knows how to talk in their format.

Wrong, shmong, the people who watch (and who count) don't care!

[RZM]

5. Except he was right about Sarah Palin being chosen

He predicted it before it happened. Of course, he also probably thought she would be a good choice and he was wrong there. But I'm not aware of another well-known pundit who called the Palin pick ahead of time.

He was also pretty early with the prediction that Obama would win the nomination.

He's not always wrong with his predictions. He's wrong with most everything else, but from what I've seen he's actually not bad with the predictions. Of course the Ryan thing never happened, but everybody makes mistakes

[southernyankeebelle]

7. Well it was he who met her going to AK on a cruise at least a year before. He was pushing

for her a long time before along with the religious right. They thought she would be perfect. Of course they weren't think with a brain on their shoulders. They were thinking with their little penis. We saw how that worked out.

[RZM]

8. No argument here that she was a terrible choice

Even the McCain camp knows that now. But still, you see the 'Kristol is always wrong' here meme a lot and in reality he's actually had some success with his predictions.

I'm not saying he's a great guy, but I think the 'his predictions are always wrong' thing is a bit overdone.

[southernyankeebelle]

10. I totally agree with you. I am always amazed people listen to him.

[atheous]

3. But what about that Jesus guy?

Wasn't he supposed to ride in from west Texas in a 10 gallon hat carrying a Colt .45 to restore Americas future?

[RZM]

6. I don't think very many people saw the Perry flame-out coming

I didn't think he would win, but I didn't think he would turn in such a terrible performance either. He was probably the worst of the bunch in that respect.

[emulatorloo]

9. Love the part about statistical bloggers citing intrade candidate stock prices.

Dead on correct and funny as hell