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Why Hillary Clinton Needs Elizabeth Warren Or Other Democratic Primary Challenger
WASHINGTON -- Let's say Hillary Clinton glides into Iowa with no serious opposition -- as seems likely. Then, on the night of the caucus, she gets only 70 percent of the vote. Or maybe 60 percent. Or even 55. Is that a victory? Clinton could become the first person to "lose" a primary with a majority of the votes. That's because she can't merely win the actual vote: She needs to beat expectations.
A presidential campaign is a series of smaller, interrelated contests -- the state competitions themselves, of course, but also the Fundraising Primary, the Beltway Primary, and the Expectations Game. Or at least that's how the media covers it, which can become a self-perpetuating cycle of "What's Wrong with Hillary?" headlines.
As the undisputed frontrunner, Clinton must find a way to avoid any perception that she's weaker than she should be. To do that, she needs to manage expectations, keeping them low enough that she can appear to exceed them, but high enough to discourage real challengers from jumping in or big donors from wandering off.
“The expectations game may actually be the only game in town on the Democratic side. With the nomination contest not much of a race, Hillary's percentages in the states are the only way to judge the degree to which Democrats are embracing her candidacy,” University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said. “Get ready for some masterful spin. Without damaging Clinton's image of inevitability, Hillary's campaign has to build up even minor opponents.”
A presidential campaign is a series of smaller, interrelated contests -- the state competitions themselves, of course, but also the Fundraising Primary, the Beltway Primary, and the Expectations Game. Or at least that's how the media covers it, which can become a self-perpetuating cycle of "What's Wrong with Hillary?" headlines.
As the undisputed frontrunner, Clinton must find a way to avoid any perception that she's weaker than she should be. To do that, she needs to manage expectations, keeping them low enough that she can appear to exceed them, but high enough to discourage real challengers from jumping in or big donors from wandering off.
“The expectations game may actually be the only game in town on the Democratic side. With the nomination contest not much of a race, Hillary's percentages in the states are the only way to judge the degree to which Democrats are embracing her candidacy,” University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato said. “Get ready for some masterful spin. Without damaging Clinton's image of inevitability, Hillary's campaign has to build up even minor opponents.”
Source.
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