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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsBarack Obama still leads big in Electoral College
by kos
Three weeks ago I looked at the swing state polling and found that President Barack Obama led by landslide numbers. That picture is little changed today.
Again, I'm taking the poll composite from TPM's Poll Tracker, including Rasmussen pollingwhich gives the GOP an unwarranted edge, but gives us a worst-case scenario picture. (For example, while the numbers below show Florida tied, taking out Rasmussen would give us a 47-44 Obama lead.)
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We haven't had new numbers from Colorado since the last time we checked in, and Iowa's results are now three months old. Surprised no one has polled more recently.
Three weeks ago, Obama had double-digit leads in five states (CO, MI, NH, NM, WI). Today, that's down to two states. Romney narrowed the gap in nine states, while Obama narrowed the gap or increased his margin in three states. Most of those changes were slight. But in any case, it's fair to say that wrapping up the GOP nomination gave Romney somewhat of a bump.
His problem, however, is that he was so far behind Obama that this bump hasn't gotten him that close to actually winning these states. And, in fact, Romney's standing in both Arizona and Missouri has similarly eroded. In fact, if you tally up the states in which the candidates lead by five points or more, Obama already has enough to win the election273 electoral votes to Romney's 180.
And if you simply go by polling leads, the map is identical to last week's: a massive Obama 341-197 drubbing.
- more -
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/02/1088200/-Barack-Obama-still-leads-big-in-Electoral-College
Despite Kos' scenario, there are still a few states that need solid work to move them to strong for Obama.
BumRushDaShow
(129,640 posts)Would love if by all the graces, he manages to flip Arizona.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)rury
(1,021 posts)look like this on Election Night 2012.
And turning Arizona blue would be sswweeeett!!!!!
IamK
(956 posts)underpants
(182,942 posts)Virginia was actually the state (with - the improbable- Indiana) that turned it in 2008. The polls close at 7 PM but they didn't release the information until right at 11:30 Pm (as Stewart and Colbert were on the air) --- Mayor Doug Wilder did hold the total late but the national media clearly didn't want Virginians to think they had a role.
Obama flipped the Commonwealth - 53% for W in 2000, 56% in 2004, and Obama got 53% in 2008....thanks to WORK by people like me.
Mister Ed
(5,944 posts)Sorry.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)will be turning blue, hehehehehe.
Seriously, he needs to win by a fairly large margin cause we know the GOP will do there damnest to steal it.
Deep13
(39,154 posts)Seriously, are you guys really going to be like that?
NAO
(3,425 posts)it seems overly optimistic to speculate that he will take all three "important" swing states.
cbdo2007
(9,213 posts)Romney's really gonna have to step it up and take literally ALL of the swing states.
SoCalDem
(103,856 posts)Advertising costs in states will be a factor this time around.. this map gives bang for the buck, and everything else is gravy