WSU statistician sues seeking Kansas voting machine paper tapes

[Damansarajaya]

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article17139890.html

A statistician at Wichita (Kansas) State University is seeing the same unexplained skew for Republican candidates in Kansas's last election as Francois Choquette and James Johnson found in 2008 and 2012.

The pattern is bizarrely consistent--as the size of the precinct increases, the skew from Democratic to Republican vote increases. This would be a logical effect of a vote flipping algorithm. For instance, if small precincts flipped too many votes, they might end up with a zero or negative vote total, which would be proof positive of election fraud. Much less dangerous is flipping more votes in districts with more votes cast.

*****

"A Wichita State University mathematician sued the top Kansas election official Wednesday, seeking paper tapes from electronic voting machines in an effort to explain statistical anomalies favoring Republicans in counts coming from large precincts across the country.

"Beth Clarkson, chief statistician for the university’s National Institute for Aviation Research, filed the open records lawsuit in Sedgwick County District Court as part of her personal quest to find the answer to an unexplained pattern that transcends elections and states. The lawsuit was amended Wednesday to name Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Sedgwick County Elections Commissioner Tabitha Lehman.

"Clarkson, a certified quality engineer with a Ph.D. in statistics, said she has analyzed election returns in Kansas and elsewhere over several elections that indicate “a statistically significant” pattern where the percentage of Republican votes increase the larger the size of the precinct."

The biggest cities in the state, Kansas City (Kansas), Lawrence and Wichita, have bigger precincts and normally vote MORE DEMOCRATIC. To find that they vote more Republican compared to smaller districts shows that something really unusual and unexplained is occurring.

See also http://madisonvoices.com/pdffiles/2008_2012_ElectionsResultsAnomaliesAndAnalysis_V1.5.pdf

[pnwmom]

4. Not just in Kansas. She has found this in Kansas and elsewhere. n/t

[HereSince1628]

8. WHERE is elsewhere?

A mathematican saw very strange patterns in variance in the Walker recall... Just Saying...

If this is true...if this is true...American will see it's darkest days.

[blkmusclmachine]

10. 14 defining characteristics of fascist governments:

http://www.rense.com/general37/fascism.htm

#14. Fraudulent Elections - Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.

[HereSince1628]

13. Yes. I am quite aware...and Stalin said elections are won not by those who vote

but by those who do the counting...

I understand the arguments made about the stealing of the WI recall election. And that data looks very difficult to explain by a natural process of variance estimation with sample size increase. Sounds rather similar to what's being discussed in the op.

[Damansarajaya]

14. I hate everything Republicans stand for, BUT

I never thought they would throw elections.

I still want to believe they have enough common decency as Americans that they wouldn't screw over their fellow citizens and tell democracy to go to hell.

[HereSince1628]

15. When I was new at DU Black Box voting was a very serious topic

I was somewhere near the 21000th registered DUer. We believed the system vulnerable and corrupted.

People volunteered time, money, and in one case it seems access to life saving health-care.

For long time DUers I suspect this issue is painfully resonate.

[cilla4progress]

44. Was that the Bush Kerry election

In '04? That's when I came on. I'll never be convinced bush won. I remember the exit polling, irregularities in Ohio. Vindication would be great. How bad and long a tailspin is unknown.

[HereSince1628]

46. Yes, seems like this boogeyman has been tailing us forever.

[KansDem]

50. Yeah, they stole it...

[blackspade]

57. That is only a wee bit suspicious ....

And the complete indifference from the M$M

I still remember how some here at DU were outraged that so many were questioning the results.

[dsc]

72. North Carolina didn't have electronic voting in 04

nor do they now. At least not uniformly. I voted on a paper ballot in Wilson County and when I moved to Wake County I voted again on paper.

[mwooldri]

73. Totally depends on the county you're in.

Guilford county has the touch screens. In 2004 AFAIK no paper receipt was provided. And yes there were problems in the 2014 election. Just a few archived stories by the local Fox affiliate (Tribune Media these days... ) http://myfox8.com/2014/11/01/voting-machine-in-guilford-county-registers-wrong-votes-taken-out-of-service/ - votes for Hagan got turned to Tillis ones....
http://myfox8.com/2012/10/23/guilford-county-voters-say-they-voted-for-the-wrong-candidate/ - votes for Rmoney became Obama votes.

[Dr Hobbitstein]

76. My area of FL (Brevard) didn't either.

We were, and still are paper. Although the paper is fed through scantron machines, there's still a verifiable, untouched paper ballot stored in the black box.

[bvar22]

59. That is when "they" ...

...told us that suddenly, the standard by which elections are verified world wide, Exit Polling, was unreliable, and we will just have to trust the private corporations and their mouth pieces on TV to tell us who won.

....and NO!!! We could not look inside their machines or check the programming.
.....just trust us!

[barbtries]

30. really?

after the installation of gw and the wars that took how many lives? after seeing the way they have sabotaged every possible initiative of a democratic president? after seeing how they have been working to disenfranchise huge numbers of americans from their right to vote? after everything they do, you still think they have an ounce of common decency and any use whatsoever for democracy? i don't see how. actions speak louder than words.

oh, yeah. they would, have and will throw elections. for them the ends justify the means. fuck the people, fuck democracy. this is me talking: fuck republicans.

[Damansarajaya]

56. Yeah, it's sad, isn't it.

Republicans have always been the party of the rich, but I never thought they'd resort to killing democracy.

[lark]

60. Hell, they've killed not only demcracy

but also the constitution with the unconstitutional selection of GW by the SCOTUS, or Felonious 5 as I like to call them. I would put nothing pass Repugs these days when they put the president of a foreign country above the president of the US. They are intentionally making us as undemocratic as possible by suppressing voting by any constituent not known to lean their way. They are intentionally destroying us economically to make the 1% even rich and empoverish the 99%. They are heinous.

[handmade34]

41. republicans have been

implementing new voter ID laws as quickly as they can and that is in essence "throwing elections" and "screwing over their fellow citizens and telling democracy to go to hell"


http://www.nationalmemo.com/6-other-times-republicans-admitted-voting-restrictions-are-just-about-disenfranchising-democrats/

at 1:12

[Dont call me Shirley]

71. And this little "gem" from Paul Wayreich...

https://m.

[Maraya1969]

66. How about Bush V Gore? How about the Palm Beach vote where they had Pat Bucchan

right under George Bush except on the other side of the page. So if people wanted to vote for Gore they poked out the hole right under Bush and instead voted for Pat Robertson. The county was mostly Jewish and had no reason whatsoever to vote for Buchanan.

Voter fraud from the top is loud and clear and sickening.

[rurallib]

68. they can't win honest elections

of course they are going to steal and intimidate and gerrymander to win.

[pnwmom]

26. I just read the whole document. She found it in lots of states, but only in elections

that involved Republicans -- either their primaries or the general election. She didn't find the anomalies in primaries of Democrats, Libertarians, or others.

And she said that all the fraud could have been accomplished by a single clever programmer.

[HereSince1628]

27. That makes me bilious.

How does the evidence stay protected so that it remains untainted for prosecutions?

[pnwmom]

29. Good question. I have no idea. As an aside, the person suing isn't the one who did the initial report.

The woman suing is another statistician who read the first report from 2012 and checked all the results, and then checked even more states herself and found the same pattern.

This is horrifying -- and I can't understand why the Justice Department isn't doing something. We just had another election that was probably affected by the same flipping.

[HereSince1628]

34. Yes, I'm aware of that earlier work...it included WI...

It's actually conceptually very simple...

when sample sizes are low, variance should be large and noisy, but as sample size increases, the variance will settle down...exponentially approaching a constant as sample size increases.

It's a basic feature of statistics long used to determine minimum sample size...

So if you look at voting returns as they are counted...the variance at first should be large and noisy as the count goes towards completion the variance should settle to a constant.

That early study found that variance did NOT settle down as would be expected for a random process, rather it sometimes increased and in many cases decayed linearly rather than exponentially.

And it happened on in large enough precincts to cause small percentage changes that turned precincts red. The odds of it being manipulated were over a million to one.

And Walkers wins in WI are all within 3% swings.

[pnwmom]

40. Reading the report, it appeared to adversely impact the tea party candidates.

So why haven't they been screaming about this? Maybe because they're going to adopt the same technique.

[semanticwikiian]

43. that's a bit cynical

more likely lizard brains have trouble with statistics - they're more the carnivorous type.

[questionseverything]

61. actually the guys that did the first report were ron paul supporters

they were trying to scream......just the msm will not pick it up

all the lessor candidates are just place holders to the counters

it does happen in dem primaries too tho...might not look the same but votes move

http://bradblog.com/?p=7875

what i have found is it is always the conservative candidate it benefits

[lastlib]

2. Sue the Bastards!

Then toss 'em in the penitentiary where those f*ckers belong!

[Fred Sanders]

3. Math does not lie.

[blkmusclmachine]

9. But Republicans DO! Pathologically...

[HereSince1628]

19. Figures don't lie, but liars figure...and they often leave a trace

in some more or less indirect property of distributions

[billhicks76]

35. Why Do You Think Repubs Win All The Time

[Joe Chi Minh]

52. It's the main way fraud is identified in the courts. So-called, 'hard

evidence' can be tampered with, claimed to be tampered with, rendered confusing by spurious additional putative 'hard evidence', etc. But as you say, the maths don't lie.

[SomethingFishy]

5. Republicans assume everyone is as corrupt as they are

which is why they are always screaming about voter fraud

[blkmusclmachine]

6. "We work for the 1%. Trust us."

[blkmusclmachine]

7. Image URL: http://voteforthepresidentonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/voting-machine.jpeg

Comments are my own.

[drray23]

11. its striking. DOJ should start investigating.

If you go retrieve the pdf (the link at the end of the OP) and read it carefully, you will see that the evidence is incontrovertible.

I am surprised this has not surfaced yet and generated criminal investigations. Not only, was that vote flipping "algorithm" at play for republican primaries, it also did affect the presidential with Obama losing votes over Romney. Luckily he had enough padding to get through.

I am flabbergasted (I always wanted to use that word in a post )

[billhicks76]

36. DOJ and Military Are The Real Government

And they know the votes are fixed.

[blkmusclmachine]

12. https://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7215/7175175750_fd17363df4.jpg

[mountain grammy]

16. Now that's a symbol..chilling!

[Pharaoh]

17. I'd like to see them in Wisconsin too!

Remember all the hoopla about black box voting? MSM.............chirp...

[sybylla]

55. If you participated in the Supreme Court recount in 2012 you got to see them.

In fact, when doing a recount in WI, those are the only ballots hand counted. The standard paper ballot where you fill in the dot are required to be run through the machine again.

[mountain grammy]

18. K & R

[turbinetree]

20. I smell

Karl Rove, he said on good old FIX NOISE that he was very certain that Ohio was going to go republican, and then the proverbial c***p hit the fan----remember---I sure do.
This is why I support the new voting procedures in Oregon---pencil and paper and its mailed in

[questionseverything]

62. the chain of custody is NOT secure with mail in ballots

and oregon still uses the machines to count the paper ,so it is still a "trust me" situation

and you have to watch the accumulation of votes too

oregon does better than a lot of places but we the people need a transparent system we can all trust

[captainarizona]

21. count voters and find the truth

It simple ;but not easy. Go to a precincts that you suspect has been flipped and get the voter rolls showing who voted in the last election this is public information and ask the people who you voted for and explain to them your vote may have been flipped and you suspect real voter fraud. Get volunteers to canvas this precincts voter. That kind of data will tell what happened. By the way if republicans say go ahead we have nothing to hide they may not have. check the voters anyway. If the republicans say this is an outrage and try and stop you then you know whats going on!

[Takket]

25. people will never admit who they voted for, and asking them is clear voter intimidation.

[captainarizona]

28. you never know till you ask

This would be after the election is over and voluntary. And most voters would be more upset if their vote had been given to somebody they voted against! If you don't try you don't find out.

[tridim]

48. Especially now. I don't know anyone in Kansas who will admit voting for Brownback.

Even though I know most of them did.

[mwooldri]

74. You don't have to ask who they voted for.

Just retrieve their voting ballot paper and ask the voter "Is this vote accurate?" The person asking the question doesn't need to know how the voter voted, just whether the vote is accurate. It has to be done in such a way that the person providing the vote record doesn't liaise with the person asking whether the vote is accurate.

[HereSince1628]

37. In Dane Co WI they compared how voters votes for Walker with their vote for a referendum

that democrats wanted.

The tallied votes didn't make sense. People who had voted for a referendum based on Dem values, had also voted for Walker by a multiple that I remember as larger than 3 to 1 but my memory might be wrong.

[Takket]

22. we've known...

we've known this has been going on since at least 2004 when bush stole ohio. in 2012 anonymous shut down rove's attempt to steal ohio which stunned rove who up until then was all smiles thinking Romney had it in the bag.

so here we are again... more evidence that the only power we have over our government, the vote, is being manipulated. is this going to fade into the dustbin of history again? we'll see.

[riqster]

54. One quibble: Anonymous didn't block Rove in 2012.

It was something quite else. They do a lot of good work, but not that.

[Thespian2]

23. Does anyone doubt

that the use of voting machines which leave no paper trail is not related to RePukians winning elections?
Voter fraud has been with us since we started using machines produced by RePukian companies. It will not end until these voting machines are trashed.

[old guy]

58. +1

[bbgrunt]

24. k and r!

[delrem]

31. A country uses black box voting machines, it is a dictatorship. Period.

Citizens don't protest, don't do anything about it, don't stop it? Then citizens are complicit in their own enslavement.

Simple as that.

eta: the fix? paper ballots, rigorous scrutineering of ballots cast by *all* parties -- is the tried and true method of democracy. Citizens want something "easy" and "painless" and totally black-box computerized, not requiring volunteers (the scrutineers, etc)? Then they are fools.

[LuvNewcastle]

47. Agreed.

It seems that people would rather have a crooked election, where they know the results before they go to bed, than an honest election that takes time to sort out. Sometimes I think this country deserves to get screwed by the one percent. If people can't stand it when each and every wish is not immediately gratified, they kind of deserve what they get.

[colsohlibgal]

32. It's Time To Get Real About Voting

It's amazing how blasé so many Americans are about computer voting. It's been proven how easy they are to hack and there are more than a few suspicious results in the last decade or so, almost always in the R's favor. The biggest was Bush-Kerry 2004, I'm as convinced as I can be that that vote was flipped. Of course Kerry, like Big Al, rushed ASAP to concede.

We need not only publicly counted, witnessed, and taped counting of said paper ballots, we need strict custody procedures from the vote to the counting. No more republicans throwing ballots in the trash.

Oh, and harsh, harsh penalties for famous right wing dirty tricks, like fake voting dates being sent out.

[delrem]

33. my lord, it's PRIVATIZED!

[valerief]

51. We need video clips of votes. People can say who they're voting for

and hold up their ballots. That's the record. No one can say it can't be done. Hell, look at what the NSA is doing every minute of every day. They store dick pics. It's time vote pics were as important.

[AllyCat]

38. This is excellent. Hope she can get somewhere with this where others

Have not.

[Politicalboi]

39. This is why we need

Voter ID.

[semanticwikiian]

42. Another Obama Legacy - unlikely!

Yes the DoJ needs to begin an investigation, and this lawsuit should be a topic of, and even *demonstrated about*, during the upcoming Lynch hearings. But will this extremely clear evidence of vote fraud ever be investigated?

Let's assume Obama, who lost votes by the bushel, defers all investigation in the interests of "looking forward" - haha, while introducing laudable but never passed legislative reforms of electoral system to give himself some talking points. Wouldn't he be complicit, almost an abettor, in the fraud?

This is a political EARTHQUAKE! It is dyn-o-mite that -- I expect -- will blow up alot of career politicians. We're going to see evidence of vote-flipping in some Democrats too so put on your seatbelt: once all the thosuands of riggable elections have been analyzed, we'll have a *public list of suspects* each of whom *must be interviewed* by the DoJ - fun!

[enid602]

45. small aircraft

I hope she avoids flying in small aircraft. She's getting a bit close to the third rail.

[Joe Chi Minh]

53. Yes, there was an election monitoring expert 'suicided'

in the customary m.o. of organised crime. I believe he was found in a bath with his wrist veins slit. Then there was the inventor of a superior and safer machine, who was killed in his car by a collision with a large truck. I believe there was also a female judge who was found in her swimming pool, suicided.

The interesting thing about these 'suicidings' is that they must be intended to look like murders, apparently covered-up in a bungled incompetent way... precisely to send a message... 'We can be nice... and we can be not nice....' I usually say that in a humorous vein, but this obviously a topic that could scarcely be less humorous. The 'deep state' seems reluctant to take prisoners.

Let's hope we are way off beam here, anyway.

[druidity33]

69. Don't forget

the Republican operative/voting systems expert that died in a small plane crash.

[valerief]

49. I wonder when the tapes will mysteriously disappear due to "human error."

It'll be another Plunder and Whoops! situation.

[tblue37]

63. We are VERY liberal here in Lawrence. nt

[BillE]

64. The 2014 Maryland Governor race also looked like the vote was flipped

Brown was projected to win easily by 13 to 18 percentage points, but lost by 9 percentage points.

Projection Data
Election Projection: Anthony Brown by 10.0%
Latest Polls All Maryland Governor Polls

Polls
[table]
[tr]
[td]CBS News/NYT/YouGov[/td]
[td]Baltimore Sun[/td]
[td]10/16 – 10/23[/td]
[td]Brown - 51%[/td]
[td]Hogon - 38%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]CBS News/NYT/YouGov[/td]
[td]Baltimore Sun[/td]
[td]10/4 – 10/8[/td]
[td]Brown - 49%[/td]
[td]Hogan - 42%[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Projection History
Date Projection Rating[br]
September 12, 2014
Brown +13.5 Strong DEM Hold

June 25, 2014
Brown +18.0 Solid DEM Hold

Vote - Final
Maryland Governor
Anthony Brown 44.8%
[font color="red"]Larry Hogan 53.8%[/font]
Called: Hogan +9.0


Please note Maryland has a paperless vote and there is no way to verify the votes

[MissDeeds]

65. I (unfortunately) live in KS

and I adamantly believe there was something amiss with the latest election. People were in total disbelief over the results. Brownback and his minions were/are soundly despised. No way in hell did he "win" albeit by a relatively small margin.

[KansDem]

67. It's about time...

I never did trust corporate-owned voting machines with super-secret proprietary software.

[Dont call me Shirley]

70. Ya think Kris Kobach is capable of cheating?!

"Kobach is also at the helm of Interstate Crosscheck, a faulty program that claims to identify people who are voting in two states at once but in reality has encouraged states to purge eligible minority voters from their voter rolls.

Kansans became even more leery of Kobach’s priorities this year when he spent $34,000 in taxpayer money trying to keep a Democratic senate candidate, Chad Taylor, on the ballot after he dropped out to make way for the independent challenging Republican Sen. Pat Roberts. Kobach only relented when the state supreme court ordered him to, and even then he tried (unsuccessfully) to find a way around the order."

- See more at: http://www.rightwingwatch.org/content/voting-future-voting-secretary-state-races-watch#sthash.gwVZZXo2.dpuf

[Botany]

75. Republicans cheat end of story

[sketchy]

77. K&R