Paddy Power picks Hillary Clinton to be President by overwhelming odds

[brooklynite]

New York Daily News:

She’s got the power.

Ireland-based online bookmaker Paddy Power has Democrat Hillary Clinton running away with the 2016 election.

Paddy Power sets the odds of the former secretary of state — who only jumped into the race this past Sunday — taking the Oval Office next year at an overwhelming 11/10.

Jeb Bush, the Republican ex-governor of Florida and the brother and son of Presidents, comes in at 4 to 1 by Paddy Power’s measure, followed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 9 to 1.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who on Monday became the third Republican to declare an official candidacy, tied with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 11 to 1.

In Europe, you are betting against the House, rather than against other bettors, so the bookie is putting his money at risk.

[Logical]

1. Way too early. Silly. nt

[Jim Lane]

4. Agreed. History supports that view.

I was following the online odds last time we had a contest. Going into calendar 2008, Clinton was the favorite. Obama won Iowa and became the favorite. Soon thereafter, Clinton won New Hampshire and regained her favorite status.

In other words, the odds bounced around a lot when we were much closer to the actual election than we are now.

[HERVEPA]

2. That's not overwhelming odds. It's almost 1:1, which is even money. 1 in 2 chance

Not a comment on whether or not I like Hillary by the way

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. It actually means they reckon it's a bit under a 50% chance

11/10 means if you bet 10€, you get back 10+11€ if she wins. Since there's a profit built in for the bookie, that probably means they give her about a 45% chance of winning.

As an example, in the UK election, where there are only 2 realistic people who may become PM (Cameron the Tory, Miliband of Labour), these are the current odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/prime-minister-after-general-election
Some bookies put Miliband at 11/10 - with Cameron as 8/11.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winning-party

Yes, Hillary's price is a lot better than any other individual, but they don't see her as a certainty. All the quoted bookmakers do, thankfully, see a Democratic victory as more likely than a Republican one.

But, as people say, it's very early, and I think some of them take very little money on it at this stage, and they won't be paying that much attention to what going on to update their odds (the UK election will be what anyone they have who looks at politics concentrates on).