Historically speaking, how late can a person enter the primaries and still have a good chance?

[pnwmom]

I really don't know, so this is a serious question.

[Joe the Revelator]

1. Gosh back in the day, you could enter during the convention

Now, who knows?

[pnwmom]

3. That was when we didn't have primaries and everything was decided during the convention.

I guess I should have made my question clearer!

[Joe the Revelator]

4. No, i probably shouldn't have made a comment based on history I wasn't alive for..

I was thinking about RFK, but I'm probably wrong on the process he was taking.

[pnwmom]

5. Now some of it is just a question of math, I think. If other candidates accumulate many delegates

it could make it impossible for a newcomer to play catch-up and go on to win.

[villager]

2. RFK, for example, entered *after* LBJ had lost in New Hampshire

And would have likely won in '68 except for the oh-so-coincidental assassination part.

[Renew Deal]

6. The latest you one can enter is the day electors vote.

But seriously, these days there are procedural hurdles in each state to getting on the ballot. Candiates must get in early just to get on the ballot. But in the end the convention may choose whomever they want. But that scenario will likely only happen these days if there is a deadlock below the threshold or a catastrophic political or personal event.

[Thor_MN]

7. Considering the changing media, is it possible to make any sort of meaningful comparisons?

As the pace of technology accelerates, each election becomes more and more different from the preceding one. Railroads, telegraph, radio, television, internet, social media... Apples, oranges, etc.

I imagine that as campaigns start earlier and earlier, at some point, a winning strategy might be to let the clown car empty out a bit before stepping in. The goal, after all, is to peak at the convention. Doesn't matter if one leads in every poll for two years prior to the convention, if one doesn't get the nomination, it's all for naught.

[Scootaloo]

8. It seems to me that early entry hurts more than later entry

Gives more time for the medi to drag you over the pavement, more time for the electorate to get sick of seeing your face.

[Joe the Revelator]

10. Argreed, peaking too early is definitely a thing...

The problem/good luck for Hillary is, when you're the only cup of coffee in town, you can peak whenever the fuck you want to.

[Historic NY]

9. You need the magic number of 2118 delegates out of the 4119 to..

secure the Democratic nomination. Start late and chances are you won't get enough.