The Only Thing That Will Stop Global Warming Is A Massive Economic Downturn

[FarCenter]

A new report from the University of Michigan starts off its press release with a not so optimistic phrase: “It’s a message no one wants to hear.”

Just what message is this?

That it would take an extreme economic downturn to slow the effects of global warming.

The research conducted by José Tapia Granados and Edward Ionides of U-M and Óscar Carpintero of the University of Valladolid in Spain is considered the first to assess fluctuations in carbon dioxide based on measurable levels, instead of less accurate carbon emission estimates.

“If ‘business as usual’ conditions continue, economic contractions the size of the Great Recession or even bigger will be needed to reduce atmospheric levels of CO₂,” Tapia Granados, a researcher at the U-M Institute for Social Research, said in a statement (via Science Daily).

http://www.businessinsider.com/global-warming-2012-5


Global warming: New research emphasizes the role of global economic growth

Tapia Granados and colleagues found no observable relation between short-term growth of world population and CO₂ concentrations, and they show that recent incidents of volcanic activity coincided with global recessions, which brings into question the reductions in atmospheric CO₂ previously ascribed to these volcanic eruptions.

In years of above-trend world GDP, from 1958 to 2010, the researchers found greater increases in CO₂ concentrations. For each trillion in U.S. dollars that the world GDP deviates from trend, CO₂ levels deviate from trend about half a part per million, they found. Concentrations of CO₂ were estimated to be 200-300 ppm during preindustrial times. They are presently close to 400 ppm, and levels around 300 ppm are considered safe to keep a stable climate.

To break the economic habits contributing to a rise in atmospheric CO₂ levels and global warming, Tapia Granados says that societies around the world would need to make enormous changes.

"Since the 1980s, scientists like James Hansen have been warning us about the effects global warming will have on the earth," Tapia Granados said. "One solution that has promise is a carbon tax levied on any activity producing CO₂ in order to create incentives to reduce emissions. The money would be returned to the population on a per capita basis so the tax would not mean any extra fiscal burden."

http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/20369-global-warming-new-research-blames-economic-growth

[ZombieHorde]

1. Bwahahahahaha!

That may be the only thing that will stop climate change --if it is indeed stopped before human extinction-- but I think stopping it through other means is technically possible.

[Mc Mike]

2. The silver lining to global social collapse. NT

[stuntcat]

15. +1

.

[EC]

3. Than the last 10 years

should have helped?

[FarCenter]

4. The last 5 years helped

Global oil production peaked in 2006, declined somewhat, and is now at roughly peak levels.

[Edim]

7. It didn't really help.

China (and others) are booming and global CO2 emissions are at the record level.

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2011/10/steep-increase-in-global-co2-emissions.html

[Edim]

8. This is better:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n1/fig_tab/nclimate1332_F1.html

[FarCenter]

9. That is mainly due to use of coal in India and China, not oil production

See Figure 15 in http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/world.cfm

Liquids have been flat. Coal is now decreasing its rate of increase.

The projections beyond 2015 are very unlikely to be realized due to continuous recession/depression economic conditions as more expensive energy and raw material costs throttle economic growth, particularly in North America and Europe.

[Edim]

11. Yes, Coal mostly. nt

[raouldukelives]

5. It didn't have to be this way. People have been telling us for years.

Nobody wanted to listen. Nobody that cared enough not to profit from the proceeds of pollution over the sanctity of life on earth that is. Fighting tooth & nail against any kind of renewable energy sources or efforts to stop deforestation. So here we are. Facing the facts dead in the face and people still choose to support the stock market & corporations over wildlife, oceans & forests.

[Joe Shlabotnik]

6. quite right

We have had serious decisions to make for decades, but have utterly failed to see past our own immediate wants and needs. It was magical thinking that life would keep getting better and better, more convenient and upwardly mobile, generation after generation. Half assed market based solutions like trading carbon credits made more sense in the economics class than in the real world. And only after years of denial did people begin to assuage their consumption guilt by starting a compost pile in our back yard, buying a more fuel efficient 2nd vehicle, and putting the recycling out on the curb. Too little, too late.

[guardian]

10. Why bother?

We are past the tipping point. Doom is inevitable.

[mmonk]

12. Is that the reason for austerity measures?

[FarCenter]

13. Austerity helps, particularly in countries that do not have energy resources of their own

Consumption (GDP/capita) has to be reduced in order to reduce energy usage.

[Prometheus Bound]

14. I don't say this out loud because it makes people angry.

But that is one reason I'm looking forward to the coming global depression.

[n2doc]

16. Or large scale nuclear war n/t

[FarCenter]

17. The Australians killed about 95% of the rabbit population with diseases