Clinton Well Ahead, Warren And Biden Round Out Top Three, Lora College Poll Finds

[brooklynite]

Loras College:

Hillary Clinton continues to run well ahead of the field according to the new Loras College Poll released today that surveyed 1,000 likely caucus participants across Iowa. Within that total sample, 501 indicated they would be participating in the Republican caucus, with 491 indicating they would participate in the Democratic caucus.

“While Clinton continues to dominate the nascent field, there is certainly an element within the Democratic electorate that is hoping Senator Warren enters the race. Now that Clinton has officially kicked off her campaign, we will see if she is able to cement her status and capture Iowa,” said Associate Professor of Politics and Director of the Loras College Poll, Christopher Budzisz, Ph.D. “The Hawkeye state has not always been kind, and I imagine the 2008 campaign still lingers in the mind of some. However, as of now there does not appear to be as strong a field of challengers to the presumptive frontrunner as there was in 2008.”

Candidate Preference
Results among likely Democratic caucus attendees are as follows:

Candidate Support (as first choice)
Hillary Clinton----------57.0 percent
Elizabeth Warren-------14.7 percent
Joe Biden----------------5.9 percent
Martin O’Malley----------2.4 percent
Bernie Sanders----------2.0 percent
Jim Webb----------------1.2 percent
Lincoln Chafee-----------0.0 percent
Undecided---------------16.7 percent

Candidate Support (as first or second choice)
Hillary Clinton----------71.9 percent
Elizabeth Warren-------30.8 percent
Joe Biden----------------27.7 percent
Bernie Sanders-----------7.5 percent
Martin O’Malley-----------7.1 percent
Jim Webb------------------2.2 percent
Lincoln Chafee-------------0.8 percent

[cali]

1. Warren isn't running and neither is Biden

A recent poll that didn't include them, had Bernie at 14%, and that was prior to his announcing.

[Agschmid]

4. Where do you think their %'s go?

IMO, Warren goes to Bernie and Biden goes to Hilary mostly.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. That's an interesting proposition where her votes would go...

Intuitively it makes sense Biden voters would gravitate to Clinton. It's an iffier proposition with O'Malley and Warren.

[Thinkingabout]

2. Since Biden and Warren are not running then then Hillary would be at 77.6%.

She just needs to reach the Undecided 16.7% to reach 94.3%.

[cali]

3. that won't happen. not a chance

“People are really getting angry”: How Bernie Sanders just electrified Iowa — and what it means for ’16

DES MOINES — Bernie Sanders has neckties older than most of his audience at last Friday’s Drake University Town Hall in Des Moines. Yet the age differential didn’t matter. His college-age audience loved him. Organized by Drake progressive students, Sanders and his audience seemed to have a near telepathic connection. His issues are their issues, and if anything, they are more pissed off than he is.

Several Drake students set the stage for Sanders in brief topical introductions, laying waste to money in politics, Citizens United specifically, the reality and dangers of climate change, the importance of pay equity for women, immigration reform, and the crushing burden of the cost of college and debt. Then Bernie nailed it, touching on all of these topics and more.

Unlike the speeches at the recent Republican Iowa Freedom Summit, Sanders was long on ideas, and short on chest-thumping, fiery rhetoric. He also didn’t have an audience mostly old enough to vote when Ronald Reagan was running for president.

<snip>

http://www.salon.com/2015/02/24/people_are_really_getting_angry_how_bernie_sanders_just_electrified_iowa_and_what_it_means_for_16/

[Thinkingabout]

10. With those going for Biden, a big chance, if Warren remains supporting Hillary, a big chance.

[truebluegreen]

14. Um, Warren supported Hillary

to run for the nomination; she has by no means endorsed her.

[Thinkingabout]

16. Perhaps one day some will take Warren seriously.

[Agschmid]

5. Doubtful.

I see Warren votes going easily to Sanders, I agree abide a may go to Hillary.

[Thinkingabout]

11. Warren will be coming out for Hillary, she will bring some of her supporters with her.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Bernie is a welcome addition to the race.

May the best person win. Unlike some of the denizens of this board I believe my fellow Democrats are well equipped to choose our nominee.

[cali]

7. Loras college? well known polling concern?

From April 28, PPP poll:

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton has one of her weaker recent polling performances, getting 45% to 23% for Elizabeth Warren, 12% for Bernie Sanders, 7% for Joe Biden, 3% for Martin O'Malley, and 1% each for Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb.

<snip>

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/bernie-sanders/

CNN has Bernie at 14%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. You cited a N H poll

April 28, 2015


Walker leads GOP field by 10 in Iowa, Clinton over 60%

On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads with 62% to 14% for Bernie Sanders, 6% for Martin O'Malley, 3% for Jim Webb, and 2% for Lincoln Chafee. We have now found Sanders polling at double digits in both Iowa and New Hampshire. He leads the non-Clinton candidates in name recognition at 56%, followed by 34% for O'Malley, 31% for Webb, and 25% for Chafee. Sanders is also the most frequently named second choice at 18% to 14% for O'Malley, and 12% for Clinton.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_IA_42815.pdf


More IA polls:


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_democratic_presidential_caucus-3195.html

[NCTraveler]

13. What a list of great people.

That list really has me confident about the future of our party.

[stevenleser]

15. Probably not going to change much between now and March/April 2016 when she takes the nom

Thanks for posting

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. A lot of people will be surprised...

It reminds of the old saw about the woman from Manhattan's Upper East Side who couldn't believe Richard Nixon was handily re-elected in 1972 "because all her friends voted for McGovern."