Fortune: The TPA (fast track) "is on life support and its vitals are fading"

[cali]

We’ve been skeptical in this space about the prospects for President Obama’s trade agenda. After this week, we can go a step further: The fast-track negotiating authority the White House needs to wrap up the twelve-nation Pacific Rim pact is on life support and its vitals are fading. Its fate comes down to simple math in the House. The “No” caucus among Republicans — those reflexively opposed to anything the President supports — conservatively numbers somewhere between 60 and 70 votes on handing him the additional leash he’s seeking to hammer out this trade deal. If that level of opposition holds, and there’s nothing to suggest it won’t, Democrats will have to supply the margin by delivering north of 30 votes. Only the rosiest of whip counts sees the Democratic support crawling out of the teens. In an earlier era, House leaders might drag such a high priority to within spitting distance of the necessary 218 votes, then put it on the floor and muscle the remainder. The current GOP leadership team isn’t much for arm-twisting; this bill may not even make it to the floor.

Republicans aren’t waiting for the patient to flatline to start gaming the autopsy. In K Street war rooms, GOP lobbyists are already sowing the argument that the trade bill’s imminent collapse owes to a failure of presidential leadership. They aren’t wrong. As one Democratic lawmaker noted ruefully on Thursday before heading to the White House for a closed-door meeting with Obama on the issue, Democratic congressmen don’t need to see him privately; they need to see him out on the stump, in their districts, rallying support.

Can a more energetic effort now by the President and the business community bring this one back from the dead? Anything’s possible. But the smart money is ready to start talking about it in the past tense. Says one plugged-in pro-trade lobbyist, “It’s toast.”

http://fortune.com/2015/05/02/ceo-daily-saturday-may-2nd-2/?xid=timehp-category

[MannyGoldstein]

1. Americans are waking up.

Good!

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

2. 'Leadership' is dependent upon leading towards something worthwhile.

Or at least confusing people long enough so that they think they're headed somewhere worthwhile.

The best 'leader' in the world isn't going to lead anyone unless they at least think the path being taken is at least possibly going to wind up somewhere good.

Get your best 'leader' to try and take a parade into clearly marked quicksand, and only the total fools will follow.

[Omaha Steve]

3. R #5!!!!

To the greatest page with you.

[stillwaiting]

4. Hope this is true.

But, I don't trust Fortune Magazine. They could be trying to suck some of the oxygen out of the anti-Fast Track/TPP movement to allow politicians some breathing room to push forward with this thing.

Unfortunately, we can never let up.

[cali]

5. yeah, I hope it's true too. and we sure can't let up.

[Bluenorthwest]

6. It's been looking bleak for TPA for a while now. I don't see a path for it to pass.

This is largely because of public pressures which should not and will not stop.

[DCBob]

7. I think its going to pass.

Hard to stop it if the House and Senate leadership and the WH want it.

[cali]

9. So do I, but I thought this was an interesting take on it.

I have no illusions about the threats and promises from republican leadership and the WH

[daleanime]

8. I won't consider it dead....

until it's head has been separated from it's body, the mouth is fill with holy wafers and both parts are burned.

[BrotherIvan]

13. haha

sadly true. But I am proud of the Democrats and Democratic Socialist who stood up to try to impede its passing.

[magical thyme]

10. I'll never consider it dead. Only postponed...hopefully for an eternity. nt

[Overseas]

11. K&R. Yes please!

Our president has been under great pressure to promote the TPP from the strongest entities in our country, multinational corporations that can buy elections and instill fear in politicians.

I'm glad there has been sufficient public pressure to give our legislators the courage to oppose Fast Track.

I hope we keep it up.

[Populist_Prole]

12. Good to see Wall St stop cackling and twirling its mustache for a change

The article reads like a spoiled plutocrat's lament that they won't get their way...this time.