Which primaries Did Hillary Clinton Win in 2008?

[MineralMan]

Let's have a look. It may be pertinent in 2016:



Note: Democratic Primary Results (popular vote). Purple denotes an Obama win and gold a Clinton win.

Now, look at the purple states. Which ones do you realistically think Hillary Clinton will win in 2016? Let's talk about this.

Link to source, where you'll also find lots more info on the 2008 Democratic primaries: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008

[hrmjustin]

1. Thanks for posting. I think she will build on these wins.

[GummyBearz]

41. I just shook my magic 8 ball

it said the answer is no

[hrmjustin]

42. Well mine said she will win in a landslide.

[leftofcool]

2. I expect Hillary to take all she took in 2008 plus the South and most of the Midwest.

Washington and Oregon may be up for grabs.

[MineralMan]

4. I'd be willing to wager that both Oregon and Washinton

will go for Hillary in the primaries. Most Obama voters from 2008 will vote for her, I think, along with the Hillary voters.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

6. We don't have primaries here in Washington.

[MineralMan]

8. OK. How are national convention delegates chosen?

Caucuses? I don't know the system in every state, so I'm counting on residents to help with this.

We have both the caucus and convention system AND primaries in Minnesota. It's a hybrid system.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

10. Party caucuses.

In which, I believe, Bernie would have a good chance. And, almost a sure chance if nominated in the general.

Both of which statements are probably true of Hillary.

It should be noted that Washington went for "outsider" Obama over Hillary in 2008.

[JEB]

64. Oregon also chose Obama and I think will go for Bernie this time.

But we are late in the game and usually the candidate is already chosen by the time our primary rolls around. Our vote by mail insures a good turnout which usually leans left the better the turnout.

[Major Hogwash]

47. "Most Obama voters from 2008 will vote for her . . "

Based on what??

[MineralMan]

74. Based on my long experience in observing presidential elections.

What else? I'm stating an opinion that is my own opinion. I base all of my opinions on my experience and available information.

[MineralMan]

3. I'm in Minnesota, which voted for Obama in 2008.

I can almost guarantee with 100% certainty that Hillary Clinton will win in Minnesota in 2016. She will have endorsements from both Senators and all six Democratic congressional representatives, I have no doubt. People like Clinton in this state. So, that's one to add to the list.

I can't imagine that Illinois and Wisconsin won't also go for Clinton in the primaries, as well.

[HereSince1628]

30. I'm not at all sure WI will go to Clinton

If Gwen Moore is the candidate for Senator rather than Feingold, I think that would much help Clinton as the senate vote would enhance turnout of urban dems

As it is, there is a lot of disappointment with establishment dems here. Hard to say what that means this far out, but I think the long-running social-liberal/economic-conservative approach is somewhat in doubt.

I would think that in Mn left leaning elements up in the Masabi range might give Sanders some support. They did turn out for Ventura so independents don't bother them as much as Dems who took them for granted.

[Ken Burch]

45. You're sure Franken would endorse her?

Don't see a case for him to do that.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

51. He already has

http://www.salon.com/2014/12/16/al_franken_endorses_hillary_clinton/

[Ken Burch]

53. It'll be interesting to see if he reconsiders that

since there was no reason to think, in December, that Bernie would run.

[morningfog]

59. It was far too early to endorse, in my opinion.

And I think the purpose of some of these early endorsements was Hillary working to discourage competition. But, he can switch.

[MineralMan]

75. He has already done so.

He will be a strong supporter throughout the campaign for President. I'm sure he likes Sanders, too, but he's a realist at the same time.

[gwheezie]

5. I live in Virginia I think she wins here

But anything could happen. I think Bernie may take some areas but there's a big military voter base here. They don't like cutting military spending. If it wasn't for contractors, fed and military jobs we'd still be growing tobaccy. OTOH she may lose some she won

[MineralMan]

7. Thanks for your feedback. People who live in and who are active

in each state will have a pretty fair idea of what to expect, I think.

I agree with you about Virginia Democrats. I think they'll support Clinton by a strong margin.

[peacebird]

15. I don't know about that. Lots of interest in Bernie in Virginia

[MineralMan]

17. Is there? Do you have a link or something?

I'd love to read about it.

[SMC22307]

60. I'm in Communist Northern Virginia...

I'm noticing a Dean-like buzz about Sanders. My circle is ready to hit the streets for him, whereas Hillary will get nothing but our vote.

[bigwillq]

9. CT went to Obama by 14,000 votes

It'll be interesting to see what happens in 2016. By the time we voted here in CT, it was a two-way race between Hillary and Obama, even though six other candidates (plus uncommitted) were on the ballot.

I voted for Kucinich, who got 846 votes.

edited:

The turnout of almost 355,000 voters shattered the previous record for a primary election in the state, even topping the bitterly contested 2006 Connecticut Democratic U.S. Senate Primary between Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont.

Source: The Great Wiki

[MineralMan]

11. I wonder how many of those Obama voters will vote for

Bernie Sanders. That's the real question that will be answered by the primaries. I suspect that many Obama voters will vote for Clinton in 2016, and almost all of the Clinton voters. That is the challenge Sanders has to overcome.

[bigwillq]

14. Yes, Sanders is going to need those Obama voters

to carry CT. The Obama voters are much different, imo, than the Clinton voters. Different demographics. I think Sanders will do very well if he can relate, energize and get his message out to the Obama voters (sort of a DUH statement). But, yes. I agree that Sanders is going to need those Obama voters.

[Ken Burch]

54. He can do that by reviving all the hopes the Obama Adminstration dampened.

And by publicly vowing that Rahm Emanuel would have no role whatsoever in a Sanders Administration.

[Gothmog]

62. Not many

Obama built a great campaign organization and HRC is going to be using that organization

[MineralMan]

76. I imagine she will use the existing organization.

[fredamae]

12. It's a ways out

before the primary's...but if I had to venture a guess at this very moment...I'd say Oregon will likely go to Sanders.

[Motown_Johnny]

13. Florida and Michigan don't count

and whoever put those on the map as Clinton wins has some real issues.

I am still pissed about what she pulled in the '08 primaries in MI and FL. It is also why she has very little hope of winning them this time around. The ads in those states will make primary voters remember how she treated them/us.

[demmiblue]

16. +1 (though I still think she can win MI, if it comes down to it).

[Motown_Johnny]

40. I dunno

With all the problems we have concerning disenfranchised voters I think it is pretty easy to paint her as hypocritical on this issue (which plays into an already established narrative).

[Beacool]

18. More Democrats voted for Hillary in FL than Republicans voted for McCain.

[Motown_Johnny]

39. Your unfair comparison betrays you

since there were only only 4 (D)s on the Florida Democratic primary ballot who had not already withdrawn from the race (and one of them was Mike Gravel) while there were still 6 (R)s (if you count Alan Keyes) who had not withdrawn prior to the vote.

There were more (R)s splitting the votes so of course the winner got less.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

58. Lived in FL from 70-012

If HRC loses the FL primary I will grind my lap top into little pieces and eat it on youtube...

If you talk to folks who have run statewide Democratic campaigns in FL they will tell you the only question is whether Sanders can surpass the 15% threshold to get delegates from the state.

[StevieM]

48. 1.7 million people voted in Florida, an all time record in a Democratic Presidential Primary.

And Hillary won by 17 points.

Whatever happened with the delegates is a separate matter. Hillary was clearly preferred to Obama by Florida Democrats.

And Obama was running national cable ads that aired in Florida, an advantage that Hillary didn't have.

Michigan doesn't count, I guess...although it is worth noting that Obama was encouraging his supporters to vote "uncommitted."

[joshcryer]

66. Those delegates were seated.

They counted.

[Beacool]

19. Hillary won most large state primaries, except IL & NC,

while Obama won most caucus states with the exception of NV.

[MineralMan]

20. That's true.

Minnesota is a caucus state, although we also have a primary. In 2008, my precinct caucus ha over 50 people, compared to the usual of less than 10. They came, voted in the straw poll and then left. Only about 10 stuck around for delegate selection, resolutions, and election of precinct officers. Obama won the straw poll. These who stayed around were about equally divided. I was in the Obama camp. In the ensuing conventions, Obama made additional gains, and won the primary as well. I'm far from sure that Sanders will have a similar result in MN.

[wyldwolf]

21. More than Bernie Sanders will.

[MineralMan]

22. That's certainly possible.

I posted that map to show the extent of the challenge Sanders faces. It's massive.

[L0oniX]

24. It's good to have hopes, goals and dreams.

[wyldwolf]

27. Why don't you kick the Newsmax thread? You already rec'd it.

[Aerows]

23. If she got TX, CA, FL, and NY

and still lost ... uh, I'm not seeing that as a positive.

[MineralMan]

26. Here's the thing, though...

Do you think Obama bothered are all going to vote for Sanders? I can assure you that they won't in Minnesota, my state. Hillary will win here. Look at it state by state. Look at the voting margins. Big challenge for Senator Sanders.

[Aerows]

36. I don't know

That's why we have a primary and that's why people vote - to say who they want to be the candidate.

I think your own map demonstrates a lack of confidence the population had in her leadership in 2008.

If you can win FL, CA, NY and TX and still not get the nomination, something is fundamentally flawed in your campaign. I don't expect that whatever the lack of voter confidence, that flaw has gone away in 2015 or will in 2016.

If she gets the nomination, I'll vote for her. Until then, I'm sticking with Sanders (or if another challenger arises, I'll evaluate them).

She's not the nominee yet. I and every other Democratic voter have a right to choose in the primary, and we are no dumber, unsavvy politically or anything else for choosing another candidate to support.

That's exactly why we have President Obama and not President Hillary Clinton in office, if you recall.

[fadedrose]

25. Michigan doesn't count

Our Governor & Senator decided to hold an early primary - in January, our regular primary was scheduled for August, I believe.

The DNC said that no votes from this primary were valid, and so maybe 6 democrats didn't put their names on the ballot. Only Hillary Clinton and another guy who would never win were on the Dem. ballot. I can't even think of his name. Also running was "other."

Hillary won because the others dropped out. BUT, when it came time for the convention, her supporters fought to have her votes in Michigan counted, and also wanted "others" to go to her. We squacked and DNC decided to divide the "others" ballots among the candidates who dropped out. It made Michigan pretty mad that Clinton wanted our votes who would never have been cast for "others" if DNC hadn't made the ruling that no votes would count since the primary itself was illegal. That's why Edwards, Biden, Obama, and others I can't remember got no votes. Those names were not on the ballot and the candidates didn't campaign much here because it was pointless.

[MineralMan]

28. So, do you think Michigan will do that again?

[fadedrose]

35. Michigan wants a primary that is legal

and whose votes will count. If our politicians don't screw it up, we shall have one.

I don't know yet who will be on the ballot so I don't know how it will go.

One thing I know is that most folks with no computer who watch Judge Judy and soap operas and l/2 comedies at night will vote for her because they may have heard she is a front runner, and being democrats and not knowing any better, they may vote for her.

I won't.

[demmiblue]

43. Dem ballot for the 2008 MI primary:

Hillary Clinton, Christopher Dodd, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Uncommitted, and Write-in.

Lol, I voted for one of the other guys on the ballot who would never win (I should have voted uncommitted, but I couldn't help myself!).

[fadedrose]

46. I thought my ballot said "Other"

and didn't remember who was on it except Dodd. And I knew he'd never get it, same with Kucinich.

All the Big Boys took their names off thanks to the DNC, and I wonder how HC knew not to take hers off. Rigged?

I remember on tv when Obama campaigned in Michigan, maybe
Detroit, Gov. Granholm was on the stage laughing and talking with people, and she said, "I supported Hillary Clinton," and Obama was
there and hadn't started to speak yet...

At that point, I thought about the messed up primary.

[StevieM]

49. The primary wasn't "illegal." It simply wasn't one that the DNC rules were going to count.

And Obama was more than happy to encourage his supporters to go out and vote uncommitted. He then spun all those uncommitted vote as constituting a rebuke of Hillary, since so many voters, supposedly, preferred to vote for nobody than to vote for her.

[geek tragedy]

29. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington State, DC, Oregon

Vermont, Maine, Maryland, Rhode Island, Illinois, and yes Virginia.

[MineralMan]

32. Yes, I think so, too.

I'm in Minnesota, and I'm positive It win go for Clinton.

[geek tragedy]

33. When's the last time MN went R?

1972?

[MineralMan]

37. That's not the question. This is about Democratic

primaries, not the general election. Minnesota went for Obama in 2008 in the primaries/caucuses. I'm certain it will go for Clinton in 2016.

[sadoldgirl]

31. Careful about Colorado.

The legislature is planning to change to a primary instead
of the usual caucus elections. Both parties seem to lean
toward it to attract more voters. So we have to wait and
see.

[MineralMan]

34. I'm not predicting any state but my own.

Coloradans would know their state much better than I.

[Dream Girl]

38. Hillary will win the black states that Obama won

That would be the entire south and Illinois.cthe upper Midwest and west I'm not too sure about. Sanders should do well in the Oregonian nd Washington state.

[SMC22307]

57. As a college student, Bernie Sanders marched on Washington.

He was active in the Civil Rights movement

Sanders was an organizer for the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) and participated in the historic March on Washington in 1963 as a 22-year-old student at the University of Chicago. "It was a question for me of just basic justice — the fact that it was not acceptable in America at that point that you had large numbers of African Americans who couldn't vote, who couldn't eat in a restaurant, whose kids were going to segregated schools, who couldn't get hotel accommodations living in segregated housing," he told the Burlington Free Press. "That was clearly a major American injustice and something that had to be dealt with."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2015/04/29/399818581/5-things-you-should-know-about-bernie-sanders

That might appeal to voters in "the black states that Obama won."

[dsc]

44. Unless Sanders makes immense inroads in the African American vote

which I don't think is likely to happen given Obama's clear support for Hillary, then I think Hillary will win Illinois, and all the Southern states that Obama won. I also think Obama's support will clinch Hawaii for her. If O'Malley or Webb run they would likely win their home states of Maryland and Virginia respectively while Sanders would win his. After that the only thing I see Sanders having even a close to even shot at would be caucus states where there are lots of affluent, white Democrats (such as Washington, Oregon, Utah, and the like)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. She is beating Webb by 74 points in VA

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/va/virginia_democratic_presidential_primary-3922.html

[dsc]

52. I admit to be shocked by that

[DemocratSinceBirth]

55. So was I but there are other polls confirming the trend...

I will set the over/under for Clinton states at 45...

Folks can bookmark this thread...

[nolabels]

56. What about those who voted for Nader?

[SMC22307]

61. What about the Democrats who voted for Bush?

Thanks a lot, "fools."

[MineralMan]

67. Who cares about them? They aren't Democrats.

I'm talking only about primary elections and the likelihood of predicting the winner in the primaries. Nothing else.

[Gothmog]

63. Thanks for posting

[JonLP24]

65. A factor helping Hillary Clinton was the racist Democratic vote

Not saying its the case entirely as the rust belt was sorta geographically aligned to her New York state, I'm not sure her background there before being a Senator there but what I mean is Arizona & you can easily find racist West Virginia voters on Youtube pushing Hillary Clinton mentioning they were going to vote for McCain instead.

but I remember this map being mentioned as why Obama will get crushed & he won those biggie states Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania -- Michigan's electoral votes and Obama won the South & the Mountain states with Clinton supporters arguing that those are states we never win while Hillary Clinton won the crucial battleground states. Pretty meaningless if you ask me.

[MineralMan]

68. See, I'm only talking about the primary race in this thread.

Nothing else. That's what's going on now. Who will be the Democratic nominee? I simply do not see a path for Bernie Sanders to win the primaries and get the nomination. Most of the states that went for Obama in 2008 primaries will go for Clinton. There is no Barack Obama in the primaries this time. Not even close. He was remarkable and there's nothing like him in 2016.

The general election is something completely different. This is primary season, not general election season. When I looked at that map, I saw the results of the 2008 primaries. I do not see Bernie Sanders winning those Obama states. People voted for Obama in the primaries because that's who they wanted. Sanders is not going to generate that kind of response, I'm very sure. He'll get some votes, for sure. Will he win any primaries? Maybe Vermont. Maybe. But I'm not even sure of that.

I love Bernie Sanders. I liked Dennis Kucinich, too. I think Hillary Clinton will be the nominee, though. I can live with that, although it's not my preference. I'm a reality-based sort of guy.

[JonLP24]

69. They voted for Obama who at the time was very populist

spoke out against the security state & countless many other things. Bernie Sanders takes stances on all those issues most Americans support the big one is expanding social security. You think Obama floating chained cpi cuts did him any favors? Remember the transparency pledges?

Dennis Kucinich had more competition but no one is really addressing the concerns of the populist wing in a way that is more genuine than Bernie Sanders and something you can't say about him that was often said about Kucinich is he isn't ineffective as a legislature. Right now Bernie Sanders is polling 3rd place for 3 or 4 straight months behind Clinton & Biden. Those two or mainly Biden poll as high is because most people know who they are. On Bernie Sanders most people say don't know or don't know enough for a yes or no which Hillary doesn't have that. He is doing quite good all things considered at-the-moment. When he speaks is where he is at his best & he will have the opportunity. Hillary Clinton easily puts her foot mouth says something she later backtracks on so many times. Every day on DU there are threads saying Hillary Clinton will win. Great. I just don't see that map as anything representative to the current situation -- he probably won't win Arizona. I don't give this state a lot of credit for political smarts. Republicans win elections by hiding from the media.

[MineralMan]

72. That was not the only reason they voted for him, frankly.

Not by a long shot. Senator Sanders is a populist, for sure. However, he has nothing like Obama's charisma and public presence. Not even close. I love his ideas and platform. That, however, is not the only factor going into these primaries. Confirmation bias is at play here on DU. That doesn't exist in the real world.

[JonLP24]

73. Obama certainly has talent public speaking

he is up there with Bill Clinton probably better but doesn't mean they don't recognize the change in positions over time but still he has talent. Something Hillary Clinton isn't close herself on but I think Bernie Sanders has more certainly with his fire & clear stances on issues, Hillary Clinton doesn't & often appears phony, occasionally gaffes & "dodging sniper fire". The debates with Obama she was clearly using anything at all if it would help her "you can't choose your family but you can choose your pastor" really scraping the bottom of the barrel and people notice that kind of thing maybe those who thought maybe she is our best chance at beating McCain. I'm pretty sure there was a link of you saying Obama has no chance at Free Republic like you are no -- confirmation bias you don't see it both ways. Whatever Hillary Clinton has going for, Bernie Sanders stances not to mention a rare breed -- I have heard him speak. I remember a journalist on Real Time ask where were Democrats like you after his strong stance on issues Democrats should be fighting for when the national strategy was to cowardly run away our successes but no one had the bright idea to campaign on minimum wage increases or any of the progessive issues that won in red states. Bernie Sanders has the best chance to get the support Hillary Clinton didn't get but who cares he'll lose -- I don't know what you hope to accomplish by condescendingly repeating it over & you just know while I think a lot can happen from now to then.

[B2G]

78. Yeah, she did so well in the 'racist south'. nt

[stevenleser]

70. We can also think of this in the reverse. Who takes any of the gold states away from her?

Bernie would obviously take Vermont. But outside of that I don't think he makes any inroads.

Whereas, I think its hard to make an argument that Hillary doesn't take all the purple southern states that Obama won and all the midwest states that Obama won.

[MineralMan]

71. Sanders may take Vermont, but that's not certain at all.

Vermont's primary is March 1, Super Tuesday. There are caucuses and primaries before that, and they may influence the Vermont vote. It may be that Vermont Democratic voters want to keep Senator Sanders right where he is. I don't know.

[NCTraveler]

77. Pretty sure she will hold all from 2008.

I think Virginia will be solid for her. As will Minnesota, Connecticut and Washington. She really has lots of room to grow and I think what she won in 2008 is really solid for her. That has to be her biggest confidence booster moving forward through the primaries.