General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOpinion: Countdown to the stock-market Crash of 2016 is ticking louder
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/countdown-to-the-stock-market-crash-of-2016-is-ticking-louder-2015-05-08?page=1-snip-
Warning bells just keep getting louder and louder as the countdown to the Crash of 2016 keeps ticking. Wall Streets in denial, but the Washington Post warns: U.S. economic growth slows to 0.2 percent, grinding nearly to a halt. USA Today hears Bubble Talk at the Vegas Davos for Geeks. Earlier the Wall Street Journal warned, declining population could reduce global economic growth by 40%. Then recently the slow-growth Fed was blamed.
Wrong, former Fed chief Ben Bernanke counterattacked: Im waiting for the Journal to argue for a well-structured program of public infrastructure development, which would support growth in the near term by creating jobs and in the longer term by making our economy more productive. But for years the Fed has been pretty much the only game in town as far as economic policy goes. Today we should be looking for a better balance between monetary and other growth-promoting policies, including fiscal policy.
Fiscal policy? No, Ben, not a chance. The GOP controls economic policy. And they will never give growth-promoting fiscal policy victories to President Obama and Hillary Clinton before the presidential election of 2016. Never. In spite of Bernankes obviously rational solution to the core problems of the American economy, one that would help the American people, the GOP will never, ever agree to fiscal stimulus programs that give the Democrats bragging rights and make Obama and Clinton look good before the elections.
-snip-
Response to LiberalElite (Original post)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
LiberalElite
(14,691 posts)I dont' know about Farrell being a huckster. I bow to your superior knowledge.
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)This guy makes bank being an alarmist and has never been right.
Like Thom Hartmann or Glenn Beck.
snooper2
(30,151 posts)LOL, found this in about 40 seconds
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-of-2014-like-1929-youll-never-hear-it-coming-2014-02-19
He does have snazzy glasses though!
yellowcanine
(35,703 posts)Didn't here it going either!
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)If you'd bought an S&P index fund at the start of 2014 you'd be sitting on 20+% gains now (I did and am!). Unemployment is at a 10 year low (I think I just saw 14 year). Gold is flat to down. Dollar is if anything too strong. Oil is cheap. And US treasuries remain the world's preferred safe haven.
These huckster grifter types predict the end of the world FOR A LIVING. They get rich scaring rubes who don't know anything about economics. They include talk radio morons and grifters on both sides ideologically (yes, including Hartmann) who skin off the grift because gold sellers have figured out that the kind of morons who listen to talk radio, left or right, are do enough to fall for Chicken Little pitches year in and year out.
And a lot of them are active on DU too.
The U.S. economy is not collapsing, it is improving. If you haven't already gone long on that trend you're late. Me, I paid my kid's tuition for four years just by going into an aggressive position in November of 2013 (thanks Tim Cook!).
Markets are cyclic. Yes they will fall and rise. Only suckers try to time them exactly.
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)Only time will tell.
Many a forecaster who has hit it spot on has been called a fear monger. Especially in 1928 and 1929. The few who spoke out about the coming crash were all vilified as fear mongers.
Everyone prefers the fantasy of uninterrupted, prosperity and growth. It ain't gonna happen that way. Never has. Never will.
StarzGuy
(254 posts)...trickle (p**) down for the 99% and the rich $$1%$$ just keep playing with themselves and each other on the stock market. Boom and bust, boom and bust, boom and bust...Boom for the rich and bust for everyone not rich.
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)He seems to constantly predict crashes. Certainly he'll be right eventually, but that gives him no more credibility than a broken clock.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-is-dead-ahead-sell-get-liquid-now-2010-05-25
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/doomsday-poll-87-risk-of-stock-crash-by-year-end-2013-06-05
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-of-2014-like-1929-youll-never-hear-it-coming-2014-02-19
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)Consider Alexander Dana Noyes, financial columnist for the New York Times, who began predicting a major stock market crash in 1927. All through 1927, 1928, and right up to October 1929, he kept right on pointing out that market was dangerously over blown. He didn't say when, but he did say "soon". He was ridiculed and call a doomsayer. In retrospect, his reasoning was sound, even though his timing was a little off. And, BTW, the crash did happen.
The other thing that is consistent is those who keep right on saying that the market can only go up, never down. They tend to be right day after day, week after week, month after month. And then one day, all of the sudden, they are spectacularly wrong.
That's why I say only time will tell. Past history will NOT tell. Time will tell. As to whether there will be a crash in 2016 specifically, a person would have to be a first class fool to say there will be, and an equally first class fool to say there won't be. However, with each passing day that a bubble grows, it becomes more likely to pop than not to pop.
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)If there is such a thing they would be similarly dismissed as a crank. Perennially claiming a bubble is going to pop is less valuable financial advice than a coin flip.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future returns" applies to the market itself, not perpetual scaremongers masquerading as advisers who are seldom right. The market has more than doubled since Farrell first offered his predictions in 2010, which means anyone who followed his advice has almost certainly lost more than from any potential bubble.
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)Time will tell.
Until time tells, I don't know, and I don't pretend to know. The only thing I know is that time will tell. Anything beyond that is mental masturbation done only because it feels good.
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)5 years?
10?
20?
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)When will the next earthquake hit San Fransisco?
We know it's coming, but to predict a date or a deadline is foolish.
The tectonic forces at work in the stock market are similar. Not always visible. Never predictable with certainty. But the stress is building. The big crash is coming. How soon? Time will tell. There's no point in trying to be more specific than that.
There's also the possibility that it will be a big fizzle that crashes in slow motion over a period of years. But that seems less likely. "Seneca's cliff", after all, still seems to be the rule.
There's one thing I know for sure, however. Three or four years after it happens I will be able to look back and tell you approximately when it happened. Until then, time will tell.
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)If Farrell predicts a crash and it doesn't happen for 20 years, do you think his financial advice has any value at all?
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)Most financial prognostication is worthless.
What I do pay attention to, however, is the growing number of voices, not just Farrell, who are warning of an overblown bubble that is headed for a serious correction, and quite possibly a major crash, sooner rather than later. How soon? Time will tell. How bad? Time will tell.
What good is that? Mostly, it cautions me against dumping my life savings into the stock market, or getting carried away by the popular enthusiasm for a speculative bubble. It also motivates me to consider ways of protecting my assets from the possibility of a crash.
If you're looking for certainty, you've landed on the wrong planet.
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)Agreed. Some is also more worthless than others.
Some people don't have the stomach to play the stock market.
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)I also spent one summer following horse racing.
Both were fun, and both left me just a little poorer..
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)Actually it's not that big of a secret. It's just that many, if not most people don't know about it.
The stock market isn't a get rich quick scheme. It's a get rich slow scheme. Over the long haul the stock market offers the greatest return vs risk compared to any mainstream investment.
So playing the market "for a while" and comparing it to horse racing pretty much misses the whole point of why it's a good idea to invest in the stock market in the first place.
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)I was a lot younger and a lot stupider back then.
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)only fools "play" markets. They are not like horse racing. They are for steady long term dollar cost averaged investment,
Said it above, I'll say it again. If you parked $100 in an index fund on the day BEFORE the 1929 crash, it would have grown now to over $100,000 with you doing nothing but waiting. That's ten times more than the underlying inflation rate.
And that rate of return has been consistent over the long run of nearly 90 years,
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)Even if you invested the day before the 1929 crash, if you'd put 100 bucks in stocks then you'd be rich as hell now.
Over the long run, equities outperform any other investment besides maybe prime real estate.
That's the long run. In the longer run we are doomed anyway.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)the vast majority of those predicting the up-coming great crash ... also, print subscription based "research" newsletter shouting about the up coming crash, and advising their readers to short the market.
Anyone care to bet on how they have bet regarding the market direction?
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)Markets are cyclic, so you will always be "right" predicting a crash.
A crash is when scared suckers sell and smart investors buy. That's all it is.
If you had invested $100 in a stock index fund in 1928 -- yes, right before the biggest crash in history -- it would be worth over 1000 times as much now, 10x the rate of inflation. You'd have a hundred thousand dollars in hand. Pre-taxes of course.
And the people who did, and rode out the cycles, are laughing at you from their yachts.
fasttense
(17,301 posts)That's like lumping God and the devil in the same group.
Or a sane rational person lumped in with stark raving lunatics in the asylum.
Or Mother Theresa lumped in with Hitler.
I could go on but you get the gist.
SalviaBlue
(2,918 posts)Fumesucker
(45,851 posts)Since God created everything then He also created the Devil.
truebrit71
(20,805 posts)F4lconF16
(3,747 posts)was actually a pretty terrible person. Not as bad as Hitler, mind you, but still pretty bad.
Not that that had anything to do with your point
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)Hartmann has the right social politics for me, but his constant harping about an impending global economic collapse is of a piece with Beck and the rest on the right.
And the reason appears to me to be that the only regular advertisers he has are huckster ripoff goldbug con artists. The conflict of interest is egregious. Hartmann is keeping the lights on by scaring people -- all 200 of his regular listeners seem to be resentful conspiracy-minded folks too.
Calls it like I sees it. Talk radio is dead. Liberal talk radio is mummified.
fasttense
(17,301 posts)I catch him on live stream so I don't see/hear any commercials. If you are listening to him on local radio, they are inserting their own commercials and they seem to be doing a really bad job of selling the air time. I wouldn't blame it on Thomm.
A lot of other people including well known economists are also predicting a 2nd crash because nothing was done to prevent it. You could lump him in with Professor Richard Wolff for instance.
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)Hartmann is barely even on the air anymore. Most of his listeners are on satellite. And he personally pitches the gold shills every hour.
It's his decision. I suspect without gold shills he would have no program. No one else is selling his sir time because no real businesses want to advertise on left talk radio because the market is so small. Only the bottom feeders keep it going (increasingly true on the right too) because the audience is mostly old, poor, and angry.
Dow up 200 points to a record high today. Made me a cool 30k or so.
snooper2
(30,151 posts)rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)THE ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING!!!
Also, gold sellers are my only advertisers so I have to say this nonsense like I'm an economist and not a third-rate talk show shouter.
Come on, Hartmann wouldn't know economics from his lunch.
fasttense
(17,301 posts)rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)but I'm right.
Hartmann depends on gold advertisers, who depend on stupid people feeling panic.
Couldn't be more obvious or transparent what he is up to. Same gig as Glenn Beck, just a lower budget version.
I share his social politics. His economics knowledge, however, is either pathetic or disingenuous or both. Cuz he talks pure bullshit.
L0oniX
(31,493 posts)JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)so miserably low?
Aerows
(39,961 posts)Not.
I do, however, have a passing relationship with history and finance.
Warpy
(111,396 posts)without the wholesale enslavement of the population and even then, the population has had a nasty habit of rising up against the top when food gets just a little too scarce or debt service just a little too severe. Sometimes, they even succeed.
Mostly, at least in recent history over the last couple of centuries, crashes happen when the bubble stops inflating rapidly and the big players panic and try to get out fast. The market has been essentially flat for the last several months but that doesn't seem like a sufficient trigger to me, it seems more like QE funny money is no longer flooding in to keep pumping it up.
That another bust is coming is not predictive rocket science. However, anyone who tells you he knows when it will happen is a fool. So is anyone who thinks he knows what to do about it in advance. There is just no way to know either until it's all over and what's left gets counted up.
Response to LiberalElite (Original post)
RKP5637 This message was self-deleted by its author.
B Calm
(28,762 posts)erronis
(15,393 posts)That cavern is not there to dispense real wisdom to the rest of the world. They are only there to make money and the easiest marks are the dumb sods like you and me.
Personally, I like the fact that any individual (flash trader) can totally rule the stupid markets. It says a lot about how there is really nothing there except massively elevated egos and propped up worth.
Why would people with half a brain put their money into some stock market that they know nothing about, or invest in speculative collateral pieces of paper. If you are so stupid to want to get 10% return on investments, you deserve to lose it all - and you will.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)savings, CDs, etc. So people get suckered into the stock market not realizing that if they can't get money on bank savings, then a highly valued stock market is probably over-inflated, just one big bubble.
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)That's the right wing scare story. It has never been true that loose monetary policy has masked a failed economy. It's called stimulus and Keynes showed long ago that it generates growth in the Dow phases of the business cycle.
The U.S. economy, I hate to tell you, is doing fine.
Binkie The Clown
(7,911 posts)brooklynite
(94,808 posts)...mix of stock, bonds, CDs and other odds and ends. Hiding it under the mattress doesn't give you much return.
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)are bank interest rates to savers on various bank instruments so low?
A HERETIC I AM
(24,380 posts)If they needed deposit money they would
Offer better rates, plain and simple.
With all the selling of equities that went on from late 07 through 09, where do you think all that cash went?
JDPriestly
(57,936 posts)could easily use the depositors' money to make it. If there were a really big demand for money, the interest rates would be a bit higher. No. The economy is not doing well.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)doesn't lead you to being wiped out, either.
Hope you are shorting.
brooklynite
(94,808 posts)Whether the market goes up or goes down we invest in a diversified portfolio. When stocks go down, bonds go up. When the market goes down, our investment buys more shares.
Add to that, a safe deposit box doesn't generate interest. Now, we could live comfortably on our total assets for the rest of our lives, but I'm not sure the average person this OP is trying to scare are in the same position.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)Especially if you are relatively young.
As you approach retirement or college expenses you can shift into safer, lower yield instruments to preserve capital and liquidity, but when young you should be fully in the equities market and never sell.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)A broken clock is eventually correct, but I don't base my schedule on it.
George II
(67,782 posts).....there would have been about 50 crashes in the last few years!
bhikkhu
(10,725 posts)You're always right, though the timing may vary. Predicting stock market recoveries is a similarly easy game.
For the most part market numbers are all a sideshow, while economic growth slowly chugs along. I wouldn't mind seeing less economic growth myself, as a steady-state sustainable economy is, in the long run, a healthier condition. As is a stable, rather than growing, population.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)I'm familiar with history. No-brainer to be aware this is headed our way.
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)Pundits pointing that out is redundant and useless unless they can predict it with some degree of accuracy. So far Farrell has a pretty piss poor track record.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-is-dead-ahead-sell-get-liquid-now-2010-05-25
Aerows
(39,961 posts)Poo-poo the prediction as long as you can stomach it, but it is coming.
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)I'm not denying a correction won't happen and I can personally assure you one certainly will.
I've been investing for well over 30 years now and I'm pretty sure had I followed the advice of scaremongers, my nest egg would be considerably smaller. YMMV.
snooper2
(30,151 posts)I guess he isn't smart enough to figure out stuff gets saved on the intertubes these days LOL
L0oniX
(31,493 posts)Bernie Sanders!
Bernie Sanders Steps Up Attack on Wall Street
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/05/06/bernie-sanders-steps-up-attack-on-wall-street/?mod=WSJ_Election_Blog
Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent and 2016 presidential hopeful, blasted too big to fail financial firms Wednesday offering another sign that attacks on Wall Street arent likely to fade in the 2016 election.
His push for stricter curbs on Wall Street echoes calls by former Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley, a likely Democratic presidential candidate, for dismantling large banks.
The middle class is still suffering from the tremendous damage huge financial institutions and insurance companies did to them in 2008, Mr. Sanders said at a press conference with Rep. Brad Sherman (D., Calif.). No financial institution should be so large that it can put the economy at risk, he added.
Mr. Sanders and Mr. Sherman introduced a bill entitled the Too Big To Fail, Too Big To Exist Act, which would require financial regulators to name and break up financial firms whose failure would have catastrophic economic consequences. The line of criticism is nothing new for Mr. Sanders, who has introduced similar bills designed to dismantle big banks since 2009.
more at link
Yep ...the asshole repukes will block any attempts to reign these thieves in.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Let the house of cards come toppling down; it's the only thing that will wake everyone up and provoke real change.
FLPanhandle
(7,107 posts)I didn't see much real change.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)I don't think for the next crash a bandage will be able to stop the bleeding. When the house comes down its gonna need rebuilding. Hopefully then there will be some changes.
brooklynite
(94,808 posts)captainarizona
(363 posts)If you get business radio and are worried about your stock listen to mo ansari show and he will get you out in plenty of time. You can also use stop loss but keep them down 10% so you don't get stopped out to soon and more volatile stocks 15/20% stop loss. Negative correlated etfs go up when stock market goes down and you can do doubles and triples so you don't have to buy to much. Finally it is better to do to little then to much. The market timer guy on weekends is pretty good too.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,169 posts)I think a piece of the sky just fell on my head.
What BS.............
ClarkeVII
(89 posts)GDP growth is only 2%.
It must be time to buy gold bars.... (rolls eyes)
former9thward
(32,106 posts)GDP growth in the first quarter was 0.2%, a terrible number which will probably be revised downward when the final figures come in as they usually do.
arcane1
(38,613 posts)RandySF
(59,484 posts)I remember the email I got from another financial site warning that I'd better take action before Obama plunged us into a depression. This is just as credible.
ClarkeVII
(89 posts)Of suckers believed the BS.
I almost feel bad for them.... ALMOST
Agnosticsherbet
(11,619 posts)Th $1.50 I had in my pocket went for a cheap cup of coffee.
RandySF
(59,484 posts)A friend of the family, no less. She told him to sell all his shares of one stock. But it didn't go down, it went up. I've never trusted these people since.
ClarkeVII
(89 posts)Are basically big jokes designed to take people's money. Check out the book "A Random Walk Down Wall Street."
Aerows
(39,961 posts)get their Series 7.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)It's not like it is tin-foil hattery - it's history. The stock market undergoes a correction around every 7 years, and that is engineered.
We are headed right there. This time it will be bundled corporate property, maybe some bad school loans and a disaster on shale oil futures.
I'll just sit right back, and unfortunately, say I told you so. Short while you can!
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)on all three major indices.
Please sell. I'm buying.
Yorktown
(2,884 posts)Over the long run, the Price Earning Ratio should be around 15, with a +/- 5 band.
Stocks bounced back out of the safe badwidth in 2010:
Forbes article here: Here's Why The Stock Market Bubble Deniers Are Completely Wrong
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/12/17/heres-why-the-stock-market-bubble-deniers-are-completely-wrong/
Aerows
(39,961 posts)And a remarkable number of shorts, lately.
Yorktown
(2,884 posts)Economic indicators are bad (US activity level), national debts are not deleveraged, PERs are far too high. In Europe, the QE will only feed speculation as it's not used to reduce debt or bureaucracy and prices are nearing deflation.
Smells of gunpowder.
Aerows
(39,961 posts)that I am.
brooklynite
(94,808 posts)I'm sure you've pulled everything out of the market (or have told your pension manager to do likewise), otherwise you'd be pretty hypocritical...
Aerows
(39,961 posts)Aerows
(39,961 posts)brooklynite
(94,808 posts)As I said, I'm putting everything in the market.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)This scare brought to you by goldline and your local hate radio station, 20000 times a day.
Flying Squirrel
(3,041 posts)till the market crashes. Gold and Silver prices crash with the market, or at least they did in 2008. Might as well buy stock if you're wanting to invest - but again, not till the market crashes.
And, by the time the talk shows are all hawking gold, it's much too late to buy. Anyhoo, as far as Gold and Silver go, we're on the tail end of a long bell curve that will most likely continue downward until at least 2020.
Autumn
(45,120 posts)Nothings going to stop that. It's how the rich get richer.
neverforget
(9,437 posts)They were hiring in March and now they're laying people off. The old heads have never seen it drop so fast so quickly. I was hired 2 years ago and I'm being laid off very soon. Even with my low relatively seniority, just 4 weeks ago I was working a shift that had weekends off. Now I can't even work in my home terminal.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)a Democrat or a Republican is elected next year for President.
If a Democrat, your investments are relatively safe, because the markets do very well when we have a President with the D after his name. If the one elected has the R? Then consider selling, because the market will assuredly be down by the end of his or her term.
What's really odd is that so many investment advisers are staunch Republicans themselves who somehow never notice this.
I'll be having a serious talk with my financial guy in about a year, about how to re-think my investments if a Republican becomes our next President.
ram2008
(1,238 posts)Hmm. Looks like this thread was dismissed by some a bit too early.
Major Nikon
(36,827 posts)The End Is Nigh!
brooklynite
(94,808 posts)And I don't know if I'd call $36.94 to be plummeting.
Maybe you responded a bit too early...
onenote
(42,796 posts)rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)Record highs on all three major US indices.
Looks like you have no idea how markets work.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,392 posts)Well, duh, you might say. But Farrell somehow thinks that's relevant to a 2016 crash, rather than, say a slower stock market growth over the 50 years. And with population growth slowing, we don't need economic growth anyway.
ronnie624
(5,764 posts)When they begin prattling about 'growth', they're referring specifically to a growth in profits, because that is all that matters. Providing resources, goods and services for people is purely consequential.
brooklynite
(94,808 posts)...on emergency food supplies for the panic that ensues.
blackspade
(10,056 posts)They have golden parachutes and vacation homes in Dubai, so what do they care?
brooklynite
(94,808 posts)And since I bought it at 65c (allowing for splits), I think I have a bit of a cushion.
rjsquirrel
(4,762 posts)I took a long position with 10k in apple in 2002, at near the bottom of the dotcom bust. It's made me s fortune, as in over half a million bucks in gains before taxes. It literally covered my kid's college tuition Closed around $128 today.
But go ahead, buy gold suckers.