Electoral Impact of president's announcement?

[RandySF]

My take without the benefit of polling, which I am sure Team Obama did:

North Carolina is gone. Virginia and Iowa become a bit dicier. Obama is strengthened in Colorado. Florida could be impacted, but I don't know how. As for California, I think it could help us pick up an additional one or two congressional seats.


What do you think?

[msongs]

1. more likely IMO is that people who are voting against him will still do so nt

[thelordofhell]

2. This just might balance the pissed off stoners in California

[OKNancy]

3. I think it energizes us and makes us more enthusiastic

So I call a draw. And sometimes there is just the right thing to do. He did the right thing and no matter what happens, he will go down as the first President to call for equal rights for the LGBT community. Those of us who have family and friends who are gay, will work all the harder. It just doesn't impact the LGBT community, it impacts their family and friends too.

[Sarcasticus]

4. I think northern Virginia keeps the state in the blue column.

And I don't think there'll be much of an impact vis-a-vis Iowa.

But I agree with you on NC.

[stevenleser]

5. I don't agree that he loses anything.

So, North Carolina went for Amendment 1 by 61-39. President Obama won North Carolina last time and leads in registered voters and trails slightly in likely voters polls. See http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html

What you would have to believe is that the folks who support Obama for a host of reasons now would turn against him because of gay marriage. I dont think that is going to happen. Put another way, Obama has the 39% who voted against amendment 1 in the bag. Of the rest of the 61%, he only needs 11.00001% who may be against gay marriage but are persuadable on other issues.

[fishwax]

8. or about 57% of the 2 million voters who didn't vote in yesterday's election

There were a little over 2.1 million votes cast on amendment 1, as opposed to almost 4.2 million cast in the state in 2008. So between the pro-amendment voters that Obama may still one and the rest of the electorate, I still think he's got a solid shot in NC.

[stevenleser]

9. Great point. Add the Democratic convention being held there and Obama is still in the game in NC

We'll see what happens.

[fishwax]

6. I don't think it kills his chances in North Carolina

There were far fewer votes cast in yesterday's disgrace than there will be in the presidential election--I think about 2.1 million voted yesterday versus 4.2 million in 2008. Also, there will be people who voted for the amendment but aren't necessarily single-issue voters and may still vote for Obama. Also, I think those who are most vehemently anti-equality may have been more motivated yesterday than they will be to vote for Romney. So I don't think we need to write off North Carolina just yet.

On edit: changed to 2.1 million from 500,000 after finding the official vote totals.

[Solomon]

7. He's definitely staking his re-election on civil rights,

this is huge. This defines the campaign more than anything. Forward. Republicans, backwards.