Gaius Publius: Sinking the Sanders Campaign Beneath a Wave of Silence

[Triana]

“But He’s Such a Long-Shot…”

. . .


The foregoing would be woeful enough even were it true that Sanders has almost no chance of winning, but it’s not true. I’ll skip lightly over the conspicuous fact that any frontrunner can have a Chappaquiddick, a deceptively amplified “scream,” or a plane crash. Instead, let me dwell on the simple fact that over the last 40 years, out of seven races in which the Democratic nomination was up for grabs—races, that is, when a sitting Democrat president wasn’t seeking reelection—underdogs have won the nomination either three or four times (depending on your definition of an underdog) and have gone on to win the presidency more often than favored candidates.

Some of these seekers were long shots indeed. Jimmy Carter was a lightly accomplished governor from a trifling state beyond whose borders he was little known and less regarded. A few weeks before he entered the presidential race, the Harris Poll asked voters their thoughts on 35 potential candidates. Carter was not on the list. After a year of campaigning, just a couple of months before the first primary, he routinely polled 1 percent among Democratic voters and finished eighth in the narrowed field of eight Democrats. But he won all the same because the other guys were Washington insiders, and after Watergate and Vietnam, Democratic voters (and eventually the wider electorate) didn’t want another insider, no matter how often journalists told them they did. If you don’t see a parallel to the present moment—a discontented time of Occupy, Black Lives Matter, Moral Monday, Fight for $15, the People’s Climate March, Move to Amend, and other anti-establishmentarian agitation—you’re either asleep or a publisher.

Michael Dukakis also polled as little as 1 percent just a few months before he announced (Sanders, by the way, was polling 5 to 8 percent at the equivalent stage), which paled beside the Hillary-esque 40 to 50 percent that Gary Hart was drawing. When Hart’s campaign went down with a boatload of bimbo, Dukakis profited, although even then he was no favorite. Shortly before the first primary, he still polled no better than 10 percent, which was toe to toe with the forgettable Paul Simon and 15 points behind both Jesse Jackson and a resurrected Hart, who mounted a brief comeback because Dukakis and all the rest looked so impotent.

Some observers wouldn’t rate Bill Clinton an underdog, mostly because he wasn’t one for long after he hopped into the race. But so slight was the shadow he cast nationally that nine months before the primaries, pollsters weren’t listing him as a potential contender. Even he thought so little of his chances (Mario Cuomo was supposed to run, and to be invincible once he did) that he didn’t announce until five months out. His odds improved from there.

The quixotic Barack Obama entered the race against a juggernaut whose endorsements were so thunderous and war chest so surpassing that many spectators thought the young senator was only trying to make himself known for a future contest. After campaigning all of 2007, he not only failed to advance on Clinton but found himself a little further back, dropping from 24 to 22 percent, while Clinton advanced from 39 to 45 percent. There were rumblings that he should bow out before the first vote so as not to weaken the ineluctable nominee.

. . .

Of the four, three entered the White House as residents.

THE REST:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/05/gaius-publius-sinking-the-sanders-campaign-beneath-a-wave-of-silence.html

I think we make a grave mistake by underestimating Bernie Sanders -- and we make a grave mistake by underestimating OURSELVES and our ability to get this man into the Oval Office, if that's what we want.

[madokie]

1. "I'm not running against Hillary Clinton. I'm running for a declining middle class." -Bernie Sander

is all I need to hear from Bernie
I'll be at the voting booth to vote for him early and often. I say often because i'm convinced I will be voting for him in the General Election.

Its Bernie all the way for me

[cascadiance]

2. He had a good interview on Thom Hartmann's show last Friday...

... that was discussing these topics. Would be good to get a that video clip linked here. Don't have time to do that myself at the moment.

[Triana]

3. This one?

[cascadiance]

4. Yep!

He really notes that Sanders has a good start if you look at all of the real statistics and compare them to other candidates of the past, that the corporate media doesn't want to analyze, in their interests to prevent someone like Sanders from having his campaign pick up steam. "Complicit" as he would say here.