Fast moving Events in Greece: Far left ascendant

[cthulu2016]

Last edited Tue May 15, 2012, 03:29 PM - Edit history (2)

Yesterday:

Greek leftists reject proposal for technocrat government
(Reuters) - ATHENS | Mon May 14, 2012 11:04pm BST

Greece's president will ask politicians on Tuesday to stand aside and let a government of technocrats steer the nation away from bankruptcy, but leftists have already rejected the proposal and look set to force a new election they reckon they can win.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/14/uk-greece-idUKBRE8440DC20120514

Today:

Greece calls new elections after talks collapse
(Reuters) - ATHENS | Tue May 15, 2012 6:39pm BST

Greece abandoned a nine-day hunt for a government on Tuesday and called a new election that may hand victory to leftists who might cut the nation's financial lifeline, pushing it closer to bankruptcy and out of the euro zone.

After six rounds of fruitless wrangling, party leaders emerged from a final session at the presidential mansion to gloomily declare that deep divisions over a 130-billion-euro foreign bailout package had killed any hope of a coalition deal.

We shouldn't have reached this point," said Socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos, who personally negotiated the rescue package from the European Union and IMF which the hard left says has imposed too harsh an austerity regime. "For God's sake, let's move towards something better and not something worse."

Reviled for imposing deep wage and spending cuts but vital to keep the country running, the bailout worth $166 billion prompted Greeks to elect the most fragmented parliament in decades on May 6, giving no party or bloc a clear mandate.

...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/15/uk-greece-idUKBRE8440DC20120515

Always odd, from an American perspective, to see the Socialists thrown out for being too far right. But since socialist isn't such a dirty word in Europe the socialists are fairly centrist. Note how the author casually distinguishes them from the hard left. (If Alan West wants to know the number of communists in the Greek parliament he can just look it up, rather than guessing.)

Here's what an outgoing Socialist minister had to say: “If Greece cannot meet its obligations and serve its debt the pain will be great,” (Outgoing Socialist Greek Minister for Citizen Protection ) Michalis Chrysohoidis was quoted as telling a local radio station. “What will prevail are armed gangs with Kalashnikovs and which one has the greatest number of Kalashnikovs will count … we will end up in civil war.”

The possible benefit of a Syriza (far-left coalition) win in the elections would be having the strongest possible negotiating position. Essentially a "mad bomber" strategy, in game theory terms. But that is only a benefit if Syriza then compromises from that position of strength. If Greece does get bounced from the euro it will be seriously bad for the Greek people in the short and medium terms.

[font color=green]Personal Plea: As with all major economic stories, it is natural to root for the banks and the rich to be laid low. And, as in all economic stories, it is impossible to really hurt the banks or the rich. One can merely wound their pride... make them a little less rich. JPMorgan just tossed away two billion dollars. Did anyone there miss any meals as a result? Meanwhile the people at the margins of society pay the highest cost of economic disruption. Always. That's the nature of being marginal. And consider this... all euro denominated debt in greece, including personal debt, consumer debt, mortgages, etc. will at least double in cost. Human costs may sometimes be justified to achieve an end, but they must never be taken lightly.[/font color]

[cali]

1. Good luck, Greece.

you look well and truly fucked.

And I don't mean to sound heartless. I have nothing but sympathy for the people of that country, but I don't see a way out.

[riderinthestorm]

2. +1. Unprecedented financial waters here - the fall-out isn't going to just stay over there tho

The US is definitely going to get some real blowback.

[stockholmer]

4. Greece is just the tip, wait till Spain and Italy blow. The question's whether the banking scum will

be able to whipsaw the people into further states of neo-feudalism.

[abelenkpe]

28. I don't think gov's can or will have same reaction

If things fall apart again.

[stockholmer]

3. Syriza, for the win

Kick out the banksters, the IMF, the ECB, and their technocratic parasites and lackeys. The US Democrats should be taking notes.

http://www.left.gr/article.php?id=759

Main points of SYRIZA proposals

1) Formulating a shield to protect society against the crisis

Not a single citizen without a guaranteed minimum income or unemployment benefit, medical care, social protection, housing and access to all services of public utilities.

Protection and relief measures for the indebted households.

Price controls and price reductions, VAT reduction, abolition of VAT on basic-need goods.




2) Dispose of the Debt Burden

The debt is first and foremost a product of class relations and is in its very essence inhumane. It is produced by the tax evasion of the Rich, the looting of public funds and the exorbitant procurement of military weapons and equipment.




We are asking immediately for:

Moratorium of debt servicing

Negotiation for debt cancelling, with a provision for social insurance funds and small savers’ protection. This is to be pursued by exploiting any available means such as audit control and suspension of payments.

Regulation of the remaining debt with clause provisions for economic development and employment.

European regulation for the debt of European States.

Radical change of European Central Bank’s role.

Prohibition of speculative banking products.

Paneuropean tax on wealth, financial transactions and profits.




3. Income redistribution, taxation of wealth and abolishment of unnecessary expenses

Reorganization and consolidation of tax-collecting mechanisms.

Taxation of the fortunes over 1 million Euros and large-scale revenues.

Gradual increase, up to 45%, of the tax on SAs distributed profits.

Taxing financial transactions. Special taxing on consumption of luxury goods.

Lift of the tax exemptions of ship owners and of the Greek Orthodox Church.

Lift of Banking and Merchant confidential, hunt down tax evasion and social insurance contribution evasion.

Banning of transaction carried through off shore companies.

Quest for new resources via efficient exploitation of European funds, via the claims on the payment of the German occupation loan and of German World War II reparations and finally via the steep reduction of military expenses.




4 Productive, Social and environmental reconstruction

Nationalisation/ socialization of the banks and integration of them in a public banking system under social and worker’s control in order to serve developmental purposes. The scandal of the recapitalization of banks must stop immediately.

Nationalization of all public enterprises, of strategic importance, that have been privatized so far. Administration of public enterprises based on transparency, social control and democratic planning. Support for the provision of Public Goods.

Protection and consolidation of the SME’s of the social sector and co-operatives.

Ecological transformation of the developmental model. This includes a transformation in the sectors of energy production, manufacturing, tourism and agriculture. All these sectors are to be reformed under the criteria of nutritional abundance and fulfillment of social needs.

Development of scientific research and productive specialization.




5 Stable employment with descent wage and social insurance

The constant degradation of labour, coupled with the embarrassing levels of wages does not attract any investments nor development or employment.

We are calling for

Well-paid, well-regulated and insured employment.

Immediate reconstitution of the minimum wage and of real wages within three years.

Immediate reconstitution of collective labor agreements.

Instigation of powerful control mechanisms that will protect employment.

Systematic confrontation of lay-offs and labour relations deregulation.




6. Deepening Democracy. Democratic political and social rights for all.

There is a democratic deficit in the country.

Greece is gradually transformed into an authoritarian-police state.

We are calling for:

A refoundation of popular sovereignty and an upgrade of parliamentary power within the political system. Instigation of a proportional electoral system. Separation of Powers. Revoke the Law for ministerial Responsibility and abolishment of the MP’s economic privileges.

Real decentralization and local government with sound resources and expanded jurisdiction.

Introduction of direct democracy and institutions of self-management under worker’s and social control at all levels. Measures against political and economic corruption.

Foundation of democratic, political and trade union rights.

Enhancement of women and youth rights in the family, in work and in public administration.

Speed up the asylum process. Abolition of the Dublin II regulation and granting of travel papers to immigrants. Social inclusion of immigrants and equal rights protection.

Democratic reform of public administration with the active participation of civil servants.

Demilitarization and democratization of the Police and the Coastguard. Disbandment of special forces.




7. Powerful Welfare State

The anti-insurance laws the close-down of social services and the steep fall of social expenditures rendered Greece a country where social injustice reigns.




We are in need of:

An immediate programme of rescue of the pensions system that will include tripartite financing and gradual return of the pension funds portfolios into one public, universal system of social insurance.

A rise in unemployment benefits until the substitution rate reaches the 80% of the wage. No unemployed person is to be left without unemployment benefit. Introduction of a guaranteed minimum income.

A unified system of comprehensive social protection covering the vulnerable social strata.







8 Health is a Public Good and a social right

Health is to be provided for free and will be financed through a Public Health System. Immediate measures include:

Support and upgrade of hospitals. Upgrade of health infrastructures of the Social Insurance Institute (IKA). Development of an integrated system of first level medical care.

Stop lay-offs , cover the needs of medical treatment in both personnel and equipment.

Free and costless access to medical treatment for all the residents in the country.

Free pharmaceutical treatment and medical examinations for the low-pensioners, the unemployed, the students and those suffering of chronic diseases.




9. Protection of Public education, research, culture and sports from the Memorandum’s policies.

In what regards education we are calling for:

Consolidation of universal, public and free education. Coverage of its urgent needs in infrastructure and personnel at all three levels. Compulsory 14 year unified education.

Revoke of Diamantopoulou Law. Consolidation of self-government of the Universities. Preservation of the academic and public character of the universities.




10. Independent foreign policy committed to the promotion of Peace.

The adaptation of our foreign policy to the exigencies of the U.S and the powerful states of the EU endangers the country’s independence, peace and security.

We are in need of

A multidimensional and peace-prone foreign policy

Disengagement from the NATO and shutdown of the foreign military bases.

Termination of the military cooperation with Israel.

Aiding the attempts of Cypriot people to reunite the island.

Furthermore on the basis of international law and on the principle of peaceful conflict resolution we will pursue a solution to the Greek-Turkish relations, a solution to the problem of FYROM’S official name and an identification of Greece’s Exclusive Economic Zone.




The incumbent economic and social system has failed and we must overthrow it !

The economic crisis rocking global capitalism has shattered the illusions. All the more people witness that capitalist speculation is an inhuman organizational principle for the modern society. It is also unanimously shared that that private banks function only for the benefit of the bankers harming the rest of the people. Industrialists and bankers absorb billions from Health, Education and Pensions.

The exit from the crisis entails bold measures that will obstruct those who create it from continuing their destructive work. We are endorsing a new model of production and distribution of wealth, one that would include society in its totality. In this respect the large capitalist property is to be made public and managed democratically along social and ecologic criteria. Our strategic aim is socialism with democracy, a system in which all will be entitled to participate in the decision-making process.




We are changing the future we are making them past

We can win them, by forging unity and creating a new coalition for power with the Left as a cornerstone. Our weapons in this struggle are the alliance of the People, the inspiration, the creative effort and the struggles of the working people. With these we will shape the life and the future of a self-governed people.



Now the vote is to the People! Now People have the power!

In this election the Greek people can and must vote against the regime of Memoranda and Troika, turning, thus, a new page of hope and optimism for the future.




For Greece and for Europe, the solution is with the Left

[randome]

5. You don't understand how much pain and chaos this would cause Greece now.

I don't understand it all, either. But I know enough to know I don't know enough. Greece is fucked and it's not going to get unfucked by thinking utopian ideals will save the day.

[stockholmer]

11. Pain as opposed to what? The destruction the bankster oligarchy spreads is LITERALLY killing people.

As for utopian, have you really given up that much hope?


Syriza is going to win control in the next elections. I will take their hope and their plans of action over your resignation to the boot heel of a money-changer tyrant any day.

[stillwaiting]

12. Galactic size +1 nt

[happerbolic]

23. count me in on that galactic size! +1

and make it a double, with fries!

[randome]

14. 'Tyrant'?

Greece and its people put themselves in this ridiculous position in the first place. They weren't 'colonized' by banksters. They said, 'Loan us the money. We'll pay you back.'

And now they can't or they won't. If greed is at the root of this situation, it's on both sides. Especially on the leaders who caused this to happen.

[girl gone mad]

76. Greece and its people did not cause the global financial meltdown..

nor did Greece and its people set the terms for the doomed Euro project, though they did unfortunately agree to those terms.

You want the Greeks to suffer eternally for the sins of the neoliberals, the technocrats and the European financial elite. The Greeks are saying "fuck off."

[cthulu2016]

17. Not all ills are equal

Greece is, to the bankster oligarchy, merely a boil on the bum. But the effects of amputation from the Euro would make almost all Greek debt un-payable. Not just government debt. Personal debt. Mortgages. Credit Cards. Money lent within Greece in Euro-denominated loans.

What ruin of the banksters in the US would, in your mind, be worth the effect of doubling the effective monthly payment on every mortgage in the US?

[girl gone mad]

97. The glaring hole in your argument..

austerity has already undermined the capacity of Greek workers to meet these debt obligations by destroying worker wages. In other words, the effects of devaluation which you describe have already been imposed on the people.

The only practical difference is that if the Greek government were to restore currency sovereignty, they would actually be able to stimulate domestic demand, unlike now where they can only sit idly by as the money constantly flows out of Greece.

[cthulu2016]

106. well...

"In other words, the effects of devaluation which you describe have already been imposed on the people."

The effects of devaluation have not already been imposed on the people. If they had been then nothing would happen if Greece switched to the drachma.

The effects of austerity have been imposed on the people. And Greece would face greater austerity if returned to the drachma, in addition to all the other problems.

[girl gone mad]

107. The effects you described have already happened.

Greece is in a depression. People cannot pay their debts. Young people are fleeing in droves because there is no work. The economy is dead and there is no end in sight. ETA: in fact, it is so bad now that actual fascists have been gaining a political foothold. Fascists to do the neoliberals' bidding... are you comfortable with that outcome?

On what do you base this claim of greater austerity once Greece restores currency sovereignty? There is no question that Greece will still have many struggles, but once they can control their currency, more options become available to them than the EMU's ongoing "slash and burn" nightmare.

[Zalatix]

58. Godzilla sized +1!!!

[Rex]

18. LOL!

[tama]

40. Capitalist fear mongering propaganda

allways tells people that freedom from capitalist debt slavery would be worse than debt slavery etc. oppression. And often they try to make those fears true with all their political, economic and military power.

But in truth they are weak, most fearfull and most to lose and their system is self-destructive in any case.

[randome]

42. Perhaps you can point to an example...

...of a country that decided one day to ditch all the economic rules that enabled it to be part of the world economy?

Korea, maybe?

[tama]

45. There's no world economy

Economy (oikonomia) is Greek word meaning taking care of home. What you are referring to is not economy, it's destructive system of exploitation. Nightmere of insanity. Time to wake up and not let fear rule any more.

[girl gone mad]

77. Argentina.

And just look how it ruined them: ( )



Figure 1: Argentina, Growth Rate of Real GDP and the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), 1994-2011. Source: http://www.iadb.org/Research/LatinMacroWatch/lmw.cfm

[coalition_unwilling]

82. Argentina 2001. Last I checked, Argentina is doing just fine and

creditors are again clamoring to loan it money.

[hack89]

115. One fundamental difference

is that Argentina's fiscal crisis came during a period of very high global demand for their agriculture products (soy in particular). They were bringing in export revenue at a record rate so they had the cash to cushion the crash. Greece does not have that luxury - they have a poorly performing economy fully integrated into a sick European economy.

And Argentina went to the IMF and did pay back all the money they borrowed.

[Zalatix]

108. Iceland.

[hack89]

114. They embraced the international community to fix their problems

they voluntarily underwent a 3 year IMF stabilization program that required austerity measures in order to receive foreign financial help. They also decided to apply for admission to the EU and euro-zone.

[girl gone mad]

75. Greece is in a state of pain and chaos right now.

Open your eyes.

[sabrina 1]

100. Those are fear tactics. The same tactics that failed in Iceland.

Please explain how this forced austerity (meaning keep bailing out the banks and make the people pay until they bleed or die) has solved anything?

Iceland refused, despite the dire warnings, to succumb to these fear tactics, they refused to bail out the crooked banks that caused the collapse of their economy. They prosecuted the banksters and their corrupt politicians, then when they DID borrow money, they used for GROWTH, not AUSTERITY.

It's mind boggling that this has gone on for so long.

Greece will survive in or out of the EU. But it is the EU and its bankster buddies who will suffer the most if Greece exits the EU. They can then return to their own currency, retake their country out of the hands of the Technocrats and start utilizing their own resources for their own people. But things cannot continue under the policies of those who created the problems to begin with. It is sheer madness and the people know it.

More victims of the Unregulated, Capitalistic, Politics of Greed will be Spain, Portugal, Ireland, France and even Germany. By continually bailing out these banks while imposing draconian measures on these populations, all they are doing is kicking cans down the road, as they have been doing for years now. As so many economists have said all along, they have no idea what they are doing. They are NOT brilliant, they are ruthless, there IS a difference, and we are witnessing the results of their so-called 'brilliance' all over the world.

There needs to be, and I think there will be, a whole new system growing out of this. It's as if they were invaded, only by Economic WMDs instead of actual armies. What a huge crime it has all been, and still, except for Iceland, the criminals remain free, some even still imposing their will on millions of people.

[hifiguy]

7. Go, Syriza, go!

Getting out of the Eurozone and reverting to the drachma, together with telling the bankersters to just get bent would cause the Greeks some short term pain to be sure, but would get the country heading in the right direction. There would be the potential for a recovery that all would share. Austerity will simply reduce the Greek people to serfdom to save the banksters.

[cali]

8. that doesn't make any sense. What are they going to do? Print money?

We know how that works out.

[Lionessa]

16. Again, look to Iceland, they seem to be doing fine all things considered.

Perhaps the fact that Merkel now has both Hollande and a party within her own gov't committed to including stimulus instead of just austerity, perhaps those negotiations will leave room for Greece to re-negotiate with some stimulus and not just austerity, Hollande has about month before the Greek re-election, hopefully in that time the Eurozone will pull it's head out of it's ass and Greece won't have only the choices we currently see.

[former9thward]

50. Why do people always point to Iceland?

The situations not remotely the same. Iceland did not default on its sovereign debt. It had its own currency.

[girl gone mad]

79. Aside from the fact that Greece uses the Euro, the situations are comparable.

I would point to economist Bill Mitchell's excellent analysis.

[hack89]

62. Iceland borrowed billions from the IMF to fix their problem. They also are joining the EU

Should Greece do what Iceland did?

[girl gone mad]

81. Yes, they should.

Iceland now borrows at very manageable rates after rejecting the austerity measures Europe tried to force on them, refusing to socialize bank losses and devaluing their currency. Iceland was similarly warned by all of the 'very serious people' that such actions would lead to their certain destruction. Instead, they are returning to growth.

[hack89]

85. They implemented austerity measures to get IMF money.

A second important factor is the success of the IMF Stand-By-Arrangement in the country since November 2008. The SBA includes three pillars. The first pillar is a program of medium term fiscal consolidation, involving painful austerity measures and significant tax hikes. The result has been that central government debts have been stabilized at around 80–90 percent of GDP. A second pillar is the resurrection of a viable but sharply downsized domestic banking system on the ruins of its gargantuan international banking system which the government was unable to bail out. A third pillar is the enactment of capital controls and the work to gradually lift these to restore normal financial linkages with the outside world. An important result of the emergency legislation and the SBA is that the country has not been seriously affected by the European sovereign debt crisis from 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932012_Icelandic_financial_crisis#Sovereign_debt

They are still much worse off fiscally then they were before the crisis:

The Icelandic government had a relatively healthy balance, with sovereign debt of 28% of GDP and a budget surplus of 6% of GDP (2007).[90] Debt is now 90% of GDP and Iceland has a budget deficit.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932012_Icelandic_financial_crisis#Sovereign_debt

[girl gone mad]

89. Iceland exited this IMF program

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/01/iceland-exits

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/17/idUSL2E8DH5XA20120217

and as Krugman states, they did it by devaluing their currency and repudiating their debts, not by accepting austerity to pay back the debts. This is the exact opposite of the remedy you recommend for Greece.

Most of Europe is worse off than before the crisis. Duh.

[hack89]

91. Because it worked and it was no longer needed.

Look at the IMF document at the first link:

Summary. Iceland’s Fund-supported program has been a success, and program
objectives have been met

Your second post also highlights how successful the IMF program was:

As the first country to suffer the full force of the global financial crisis,
Iceland successfully completed a three-year IMF-supported rescue programme in
August 2011. Despite some setbacks along the way, the programme laid the
foundations for renewed access to international capital markets in mid-2011 and
an encouraging rebound in economic growth to 3% for 2011 as a whole. Flexible
labour and product markets and a floating exchange rate have facilitated the
correction of external imbalances and contained the rise in unemployment, while
the financial system has shrunk to one fifth of its former size.

[girl gone mad]

94. Yes, they were able to exit and see a rebound in growth..

Last edited Wed May 16, 2012, 06:23 PM - Edit history (2)

because they rejected the austerity regime which the European elites tried to force on them and instead let the banks fail, devalued their currency, imposed capital controls.

This is why Iceland now is in better shape than Greece, Ireland, Spain, etc.

Again, Iceland did the opposite of what you are recommending for Greece. You have been arguing for Greece to stay in the Euro, accept austerity and suffer through many years of depression to pay off debts forced on them in the crisis at punishing rates. How many more ways does it need to be proven that the neoliberals' austerity putsch has failed the people? In economic terms, it could not be more straightforward. It's impossible to achieve growth by taking more and more money out of an economy which 1) owes its debts in in a currency it does not control and 2) can only run a trade deficit, by design.

Yes, it was easier for Iceland to reject the kind of bailout deals which were forced onto Greece because Iceland had the krona and therefore were in a better position to take matters into their own hands.

ETA: Should Iceland have accepted the IMF loan? They probably would have been good without it, but this measure was done to help absorb the shock of the rapid devaluation since Iceland is a small island nation, very dependent on foreign goods. In that sense, you are actually making a point in favor of the "Grexit" because Greece has more options than Iceland did in terms of imports and domestic substitutions.

[hack89]

101. Do you read what you post?

they voluntarily embraced a three year IMF program that included austerity measures and increased taxes. Everyone, including Iceland, says it was the IMF program that saved their economy.

And if the EU is so bad, why did Iceland apply to join it?

Why do you neglect to mention that just like Iceland, private holders of Greek bonds had to take a 75% haircut?

And lets not forget another fundamental difference - Iceland had sufficient reserves to run the government. Greece is so broke that they will run out of money this summer. The new funds they want from the EU is to fund basic government services for two years. If they reject the bailout just how will they fund their government? They have no money.

[girl gone mad]

104. I have no idea what point you're trying to make.

Are you trying to argue that the modest loan Iceland took from the IMF meant they accepted the austerity regime Europe attempted to impose on them? Do you understand that you are talking about two different issues?

The Euro elites tried to force Iceland to make bad bank debts sovereign and cut public sector spending to pay for these debts, but the plan did not succeed the way they way it had in Ireland and Greece, etc., because Icelanders fought back. I think I have told you before that Iceland had no need to default on its sovereign debts because the sovereign debt remained manageable once Iceland let the banks fail and pushed those losses onto foreign investors, bankers and governments rather than making the citizens bear the costs.

The $2 billion IMF loan was not to roll over the bad debts, but to help stabilize the rate of exchange and provide breathing room as Iceland repudiated the debts and devalued its currency.

In the words of the IMF itself, "automatic stabilizers were allowed to operate in full during the first year of the program—effectively delaying fiscal adjustment." Meaning no austerity was initially imposed on Iceland's social programs as has been done in Greece, some austerity was eventually imposed (nothing on the level of what is seen in Greece) but only after Iceland was in a more stable economic position.

All austerity is not created equal, and I hope that you truly understand what it is you are arguing for and against.

[hack89]

111. I am arguing that there is no comparison between the two situations

Last edited Thu May 17, 2012, 06:52 AM - Edit history (2)

Iceland was a domestic banking crisis - Iceland's government was in good fiscal shape with manageable debt and adequate reserves. Greece is a sovereign debt crisis - the Greek government is in horrible fiscal shape with unmanageable debt and no reserves.

Greece does not have the same options that Iceland had. They are much sicker. They cannot survive without borrowing more money. That was not the case with Iceland.

[girl gone mad]

105. BTW, Iceland actually increased its social spending..

back when Euro leaders were demanding austerity.

Greece can do the same and fund most of its government services by issuing its own currency (the drachma), the same way every other sovereign currency government does.

[hack89]

113. No they can't

not unless they are completely self sufficient and do not have to import anything like energy, food and medicine. Because no country in their right mind would accept payment in drachmas. International trade is conducted in dollars or euros - there is no way one drachma will equal one euro. All you have done is significantly decreased the value of the average Greek's paycheck. The inflation will be massive - the price of imported goods will be beyond the reach of most.

And how will the Greek economy operate without access to credit? Countries and companies are constantly borrowing money both long and short term. Where will Greek companies get the credit to manage cash flow? Where will the loans to expand businesses come from?

[girl gone mad]

109. One more thing..

I've never heard anyone claim the IMF loan saved Iceland's economy.

What saved Iceland's economy was the devaluation (plus capital controls) and debt repudiation. I personally do not believe they should have even taken the IMF loans.

The bondholder haircut issue is more complicated than you make it out to be. I defer to Roubini:

A myth is developing that private creditors have accepted significant losses in the restructuring of Greece’s debt; while the official sector gets off scot free. International Monetary Fund claims have traditional seniority, but bonds held by the European Central Bank and other eurozone central banks are also escaping a haircut, as are loans from the eurozone’s rescue funds with the same legal status as private claims. So, the argument runs, private claims have been “subordinated” to official ones in a breach of accepted legal practice.

The reality is that private creditors got a very sweet deal while most actual and future losses have been transferred to the official creditors.

Even after private sector involvement, Greece’s public debt will be unsustainable at close to 140 per cent of gross domestic product: at best, it will fall to 120 per cent by 2020 and could rise as high as 160 per cent of GDP. Why? A “haircut” of €110bn on privately held bonds is matched by an increase of €130bn in the debt Greece owes to official creditors. A significant part of this increase in Greece’s official debt goes to bail out private creditors: €30bn for upfront cash sweeteners on the new bonds that effectively guarantee much of their face value. Any future further haircuts to make Greek debt sustainable will therefore fall disproportionately on the growing claims of the official sector. Loans of at least €25bn from the European Financial Stability Facility to the Greek government will go towards recapitalising banks in a scheme that will keep those banks in private hands and allow shareholders to buy back any public capital injection with sweetly priced warrants.

The new bonds will also be subject to English law, where the old bonds fell under Greek jurisdiction. So if Greece were to leave the eurozone, it could no longer pass legislation to convert euro-denominated debt into new drachma debt. This is an amazing sweetener for creditors.

Moreover, the official sector began restructuring its claims (both the IMF ones and those with equal status to private ones) well before private sector creditors. Maturities were lengthened – effectively a debt restructuring – and the interest rate on those loans reduced, repeatedly.

And I can go into more detail on this if you really like math. The haircuts were certainly not 75%.

[HiPointDem]

19. it's how lincoln won the civil war. it turns out just fine most of the time.

it's historically false to explain hyper-inflation as directly caused by "printing money". hyper-inflation is a historically rare phenomenon and there's always other stuff in the mix besides money-printing.

[tama]

46. Eat well, sing and dance and live together :)

You can't eat money, but money and debt can and does rob away the fruits of land and labor from peoples of land.

[randome]

47. Money also pays for research.

Disease prevention. Explorations. Money is not a system imposed on us from without. It is part of our cultural evolution -for all its pros and cons.

Not saying we couldn't do with less emphasis on it.

[tama]

49. Money controls academic research

but research is not limited to academic slavery to money.

Academic institutions consist of many various fields of research and departments, e.g. philosophy and economics. I haven't yet met an academic - or other - philosopher worth the title who would not recognize that the dogma of neoliberalism nesting in the department in economics is 1) pseudo- and antiscientific insanity, 2) in control of all academic research and 3) hurting research and members of academic community making life in universities insufferable.

[girl gone mad]

78. America was able to print its way out of recession to a large extent...

While Greece remained mired in depression.

It's always shocking to me to read conservative, anti-Keynesian economic arguments on a Democratic forum.

[Zalatix]

110. We also inflated our way out after World War II.

Funny how that keeps working, when it's done right.

[abelenkpe]

29. Wow. Nt

[dana_b]

33. hell yes

I hope that they go this way. There is so much "right" in this, imo. These in particular struck me:
Radical change of European Central Bank’s role.

Prohibition of speculative banking products.

Paneuropean tax on wealth, financial transactions and profits.

and

Taxation of the fortunes over 1 million Euros and large-scale revenues.

Gradual increase, up to 45%, of the tax on SAs distributed profits.

Taxing financial transactions. Special taxing on consumption of luxury goods.

Lift of the tax exemptions of ship owners and of the Greek Orthodox Church.

Lift of Banking and Merchant confidential, hunt down tax evasion and social insurance contribution evasion.

Banning of transaction carried through off shore companies.


WOW!!

[cthulu2016]

37. informative

[tama]

41. Good program

radical (going to the roots of problem) as the party name states. Thanks for posting.

[Odin2005]

56. Now that's a platform i can get behind!

[Comrade_McKenzie]

66. Only in a perfect world free of willing slaves. nt

[Lionessa]

6. And Tsipras' party is expected to do well, as I projected it would, after he forced the other party

leaders to either sign the rejection of EU austerity or be shown publicly as the parties of status quo and EU puppets.

[cali]

9. What happens after they reject EU conditions?

[cthulu2016]

10. They will be out of the euro and will have to

set up the Drachma which will be valued at essentially nothing and imported goods will be out of the reach of everyone and the costs of government borrowing (interest rates) will be prohibitive, forcing arithmetic austerity...

And everyone in Greece with a mortgage or any other debt will find the cost of that debt at least DOUBLE.

It's a mess in every scenario except one: The big Euro nations underwrite Greek debt in exchange for some minor revenue/spending reform and the ECB sets an inflation target of 4% and tries to actually hit it, allowing debt in the PIGS to decrease some naturally, which it hasn't been doing with Europe in a relatively deflationary environment for most of the last 4 years.

The super cheap Drachma will make Eurozone tourism in Greece (big part of their economy) very attractive, at least... as long as there's not a civil war going on, of course.

[Berlin Expat]

20. As I posted on another forum on the Greek situation

the Nomura Group of Japan has forecast a 60%+ plus chance of either a military coup or outright civil war as a result of a Greek departure from the EU. That will pretty much end Greece's idea of Europeans taking a cheap vacation on it's lovely beaches, and somehow the Sex Pistols song "Holidays in the Sun" becomes quite appropriate.

This will not end well for Greece. They're damned if they do, and just as damned if they don't. Maybe they can beg Turkey to take them back?

[girl gone mad]

86. This isn't what Nomura stated.

The report forecast a potential 60% devaluation of the drachma, not a 60% chance of civil war.

I don't think they even mentioned civil war in the report, though a UBS report outlined the potential for civil war if hyperinflation grew out of control.

[Berlin Expat]

21. And according to this

http://www.cnbc.com/id/47428134

a bank run is beginning in Greece, which hardly surprises me.

As Samuel L. Jackson eloquently stated in Jurassic Park, "Hold on to your butts."

An updated observation; it looks like the interim government may well have to declare a bank holiday and begin imposition of capital controls sooner than I'd thought. If a major run on the banks gets underway in the next 72 hours or so, look for it. They would need to essentially either shut down or severely limit the amount of € people can withdraw daily from an ATM, and close the banks entirely. Maybe a maximum of 50 to 100 € daily withdrawal. Perhaps it also may not be a bad idea to forbid EBT's and even Western Union or Moneygram wire transfers in order to stem ancillary capital flight (outgoing wire transfers from Greece to other destinations, not incoming). If it really gets bad (as in "shit-hits-the-fan" bad), shutting down the stock market for awhile might be in order as well.

[cthulu2016]

34. interesting

[JDPriestly]

35. Germans will come into Greece for their vacations and spend money like it was water.

The Greek people will grovel to the German (and other North European) tourists. Greece does not have the factories to generate the kind of wealth that Germany has, but Greece has something that is very valuable to Germans and other Northern Europeans -- sunshine, warmth, an ocean of water, ocean air and historical sites unequaled anywhere other than, perhaps, Israel, Egypt and certain South and Central American countries.

Of course, the Germans can spend their vacations in countries other than Greece, Spain and Italy, but they have to travel further to do it -- and there is no place like Greece. It's great.

[Berlin Expat]

36. While Greece is indeed a most beautiful country, I

Last edited Tue May 15, 2012, 06:50 PM - Edit history (1)

really don't imagine anyone wanting to take a vacation there if the worst should come to pass and a civil war breaks out, and I'll be honest, that's a distinct possibility.

Here's how it goes down:

The leader of SYRIZA is bumped off by some idiotic RWNJ who thinks he's "saving Greece from the catastrophe of Bolshevism" or some such twaddle. That in turn begets a wave of retaliatory assassinations by the Left upon the Right, who themselves retaliate in turn with typical methods such as car bombings, assassinations of prominent political figures and maybe the occasional mass shooting of demonstrators for a little variety. The police, now unpaid, and the Army, equally unpaid, decline to do their respective jobs of maintaining any semblance of civil order and decide to take part in the carnival-like atmosphere of wide-spread looting or go home to look after their families. In the meantime, what little is left of the Greek economy is now beset by; 1) a complete lack of money and 2) batshit insane political violence with no authority of the Greek state at any level.

Outcome: Civil war. Or a military coup d'etat in the name of "restoring order", followed up by the usual business of large-scale liquidations of political opponents, which in turn ignites a low intensity civil war that lasts for about four years or so like the last Greek civil war of 1945-1949.

Either way, I really don't see Greece's lovely beaches, feta cheese, ouzo and pretty women being much of an attraction at that point, what with the streets running red with blood, when let's face it, Turkey and Croatia aren't much farther away and a whole lot more mellow.

End result; Greece's "cheap Drachma tourism-led economic recovery" as well as the future of probably two generations goes down the toilet, with tens of thousands dead and hundreds of thousands having fled the country as the result of the complete and utter breakdown of Greek society. And if you look back at Greece's very, very long recorded history, you'll see they have an unfortunate tendency to occasionally settle their political disagreements with nation-destroying epic violence, and that tendency towards a violent solution is inexorably building within Greece. All it's going to take is a spark to set it off.

You'd be better off going for a nice relaxing vacation in Somalia or Syria.

But hey, them Greeks sure told off them Germans!

[socialist_n_TN]

53. So if the Greek people endorse Syriza's platform........

they can expect a civil war funded and fomented by the capitalists? Is that the gist of your argument?

Not that I'm disagreeing, but then I'm a revolutionary socialist. This is what I EXPECT out of the ruling class when the people try to take control at the ballot box. That's WHY I'm a revolutionary socialist and not a ballot box reformist. They won't give up power until you FORCE them to, but it's interesting to see this view validated by someone who's not a revolutionary socialist.

[Berlin Expat]

70. Essentially, yes; I believe that

the ruling class (the capitalists) will never give up power unless the matter is forced.

They would prefer to see Greece disintegrate into utter chaos, because they can pretty safely bet that a reactionary movement would develop that would be more to their political tastes; or conversely, a reactionary military coup d'etat that would proclaim an authoritarian state, which also suits the ruling class just fine and dandy.

[tama]

43. Not so quickly!

How can or will Greece be kicked out from Eurozone? There is no legal basis for that in the treaties, leaving Euro is impossible without leaving EU under the treaties. I've only seen commentaters saying Greece could, should and would be kicked out from EZ, but so far I haven't seen anyone saying HOW that could be done.

If Syriza can form a governement that follows the party program, first action is moratorium against paying debt. And if Greece cancels all debt to ECB, ECB goes de facto bankrupt and needs to be recapitalized by member states if it is to survive. Greece - which can't be legally kicked out from EZ no matter what people are saying - OWNS the ECB with a deadly grip by its balls and can play hard ball in negotiation about radical renewal of the European central banking system. With popular support from all European nations.

[randome]

44. That...is interesting.

[hack89]

63. The EU and the banks have already written off 75% of Greece's debt

with no major financial disaster to the EU. That grip is not as tight as you think.

[tama]

68. Not ECB and IMF and member states

The "written off" was only the part of the private sector that agreed to writ-off. IIRC ECB has 100 billion worth of Greek bonds.

[girl gone mad]

83. The ECB cannot go bankrupt.

It isn't possible. The ECB is not a private bank and does not have capital requirements.

[Lionessa]

13. Who knows for sure, but Iceland seems to recovering from bankruptcy better

than most countries and the Eurozone are doing through bank bailouts.

[cali]

15. That's true. People keep saying that they aren't analogous

but I wonder what the pertinent differences are. Whatever happens, it looks like the people of Greece are in for more bad weather.

[randome]

22. The differences, IIRC from a recent thread...

...are that it was Iceland's banks that were hurting and were allowed to go bankrupt. In Greece's case, it's the government itself that owes the money. When a government goes bankrupt, the repercussions are much greater.

Iceland was not in that position.

[Berlin Expat]

24. Exactly; the case of Iceland

was not an issue of a sovereign debt default, simply the affected Icelandic banks were allowed to go bankrupt without intervention.

With Greece, we'd be looking at a sovereign debt default. Imagine turning on the news one fine evening and there's a live broadcast from the Oval Office, with President Obama saying, in effect, that the United States of America has just declared bankruptcy. Granted, the Hellenic Republic is not the U.S.A., but for the average Greek, the effect on their hearts and minds is going to be much the same as it would be for any American hearing the same news in regard to their country.

In order words, all hell would very likely break loose.

The most obvious difference however is that in the case of the U.S.A., or even Japan, both of whom have debt/GDP ratios over 100% (Japan is 200%), the vast majority of that debt is domestically held debt. In the case of Greece, with its debt/GDP ratio of 120% (more or less), some 80 to 90% of that debt is owed to others, i.e., non-Greeks. Thus, a sovereign debt default by Greece would be potentially damaging to Germany, France and the others who actually own Greece's sovereign debt.

And I can't help but wonder; what's the dollar amount of Credit Default Swaps floating around there in the financial ether pegged on Greek sovereign debt? Talk about a fifteen-megaton time bomb waiting to go off; it could potentially be in the hundreds of billions, maybe even a trillion or more, and if that blows up, it's "Game Over" for the EU. The last number I read for the total nominal value of Credit Default Swaps in circulation was, I believe, 400 trillion U.S. Dollars. In contrast, the entire GDP of good ole Planet Earth is somewhere in the neighborhood of 60 trillion U.S. Dollars per annum. That's an economic extinction level event, folks.

[coalition_unwilling]

84. Who actually owns Greek debt? German, French and American banks (and

their stockholders). Excuse me, but I fail to see how a Greek default on its debt hurts anyone in the German working class, other than indirectly (in the sense that there will no longer be as high a demand from Greece for German industrial output).

All Greek CDSes have parties and counterparties and anyone who has sold a CDS on Greek debt and not hedged their position (by, for example, purchasing put contracts on Greek debt) deserves to go out of business. Thus, saying there is hundreds of billions of Euros of CDSes ignores the convenient fact that each Euro of CDS has a counterparty.

[metalbot]

25. There's also a question of scale

The population of Iceland (the entire country) is just over 300k people.

The population of Greece is over 11 million.

[cthulu2016]

27. And a sovereign currency

[abelenkpe]

26. Why can't Greece default and stay in the euro?

Is that not possible?

[KamaAina]

30. Theoretically, yes -- but the entire eurozone would take a bath

Germany's not going to let that happen.

[tralala]

31. "Moral hazard"

[cthulu2016]

32. Yes, but in the same way the repugs passing a huge new stimulus plan is possible

[muriel_volestrangler]

38. Not while staying in the rules of the European Union

(assuming you mean a unilateral default, rather than another negotiated one). As well as cutting off future loans, the rest of the EU might decide to throw Greece out of the EU, effectively - cut off all EU payments (eg farming subsidies). Greece could still keep what Euros it has circulating, if it wanted, in that case, but they'd be without any form of central bank.

[badtoworse]

39. What good would that do? They'd still be broke and no one would lend them any more money

[tama]

48. They would not be in debt slavery

Freedom from slavery is hard to imagine for people conditioned to thinking that economy is about FIAT money and money is about debt and interest and that the amount of debt can and needs to grow ad infinitum - which, if you give it a thought, is pure insanity.

Quite a lot of Greeks know the history of Solon's peacefull revolution and birth of Athenian democracy. Democracy was born as revolution against debt slavery.

What do bankers produce? Money. How can bankers get food on the table? By make believe that money has value and by oppression mechanism that create artificial scarcity where only people who have money can eat, have home etc. By forcing others to feed and serve them by debt slavery.

[cthulu2016]

51. Is Athenian democracy really the best example here?

Since the first Athenian democracy was an economy based on slave ownership I am not sure how useful an example it is of the wonders of escaping debt slavery.

[tama]

52. Not the best

The better and best examples are for us to create. But debt was also then one of the main mechanisms how free men became slaves owned by other men, in addition to war and birth as slave.

But the point was that those Greeks who know their history have good understanding of the relations of debt, slavery and democracy. They value freedom, grow less and less afraid and they are really fed up with Troika and the whole corrupt political system and they really want a revolution, as peacefull as possible, and to continue eating well, singing and dancing, and contributing to the well being of their communities - first and foremost extended families, then neighbourhoods and villages.

It's really the euroelites and financial class and their mouthpieces that are clueless and alianated from reality. The financial commissioner Olli Rehn (who BTW is from the same town as I and whose sister was my classmate) believed that forcing both Pasok and ND to commit to the terms of the "rescue" package dictated by ECB and IMF meant something. As if real people didn't matter at all. He and the rest of elites become so alianated from reality that they start acting like sociopaths that value money and moneysystem more than people and life in general. We are all parts of this insanity and the political and financial elites are most insane. But let's not be afraid of getting better and becoming sane again.

[badtoworse]

54. What would they pay salaries and pensions with? Drachmas?

Who's going to accept them as payment? Would you sell your goods and services for drachmas? I sure as hell wouldn't. They would be worthless outside of Greece and worth very little even within Greece.

Screw the bankers sounds great and they would certainly be hurt by a Greek default. At the end of the day, however, the Greek government will still have no money (that has any purchasing power) and the Greek people that have been depending on a government check to survive will be shit out of luck. There will not be a happy ending for Greece, at least in the short term.

[tama]

55. You can believe in Mammon all you need

but Maslow's hierarchy of needs does not mention money - or state or governement.

People who have been depending on government money have been allready fucked by Troika and Greek Government and banksters and they promise nothing else than deepening misery and oppression and exploitation. Greece has been in escalating depression since 2008, unemployment 25%, part-timers another 25%, youth unemployment 50%, severe cuts in salaries, pensions and unemployment benefits way below living costs, and only promises of escalating downward spiral if austerity programs are followed and continued. Government and state has become allready largely dysfunctional and insignificant or rather just nuicanse and obstruction) for daily lives for more and more Greeks.

People get along by relying their non-governemental social networks, move from city to countryside to more self-sufficient ways of life, farmers donate and distribute food freely, medical staff not getting paid occupy hospitals and and create free health care, people create local money systems, build community gardens, travel freely on public transport, etc. etc. As money gets more and more drawn out from the daily lives of people people don't stop living and taking care of each other.

[badtoworse]

64. I agree people don't stop living,...

...but anyone who believes things will get better in Greece any time soon is going to be very disappointed. I'm thinking of things like electricity and fuel to operate cars, buses and trucks. They won't be able to pay for those things and that will make a bad situation much worse.

[tama]

71. I'm thinking of non-things like

peace, freedom, happiness, friendship, love, meaning and purpose. Money can't buy those non-things.

[badtoworse]

72. A quote I saw in a WSJ cartoon many years ago...

"True, laughter is the best medicine, but money is a damn fine second choice".

[tralala]

73. LOL

[hack89]

80. But severe poverty brings misery, death, violence and hopelessness.

there are no peaceful, free and happy countries that are also destitute.

[BOG PERSON]

88. misery, death, violence and hopelessness are the human condition

no amount of prosperity will eliminate those things

[socialist_n_TN]

102. Sounds like what the IMF and Euro banks had planned for ........

the Greek working class. What's the difference?

[hack89]

112. You are right that there will be misery regardless of what they do

but consider that Greece is flat broke - this bailout is designed to fund Greek government services for two years. Healthcare, pensions, payroll, etc - where else is Greece going to get this money?

[girl gone mad]

87. If Greece collects taxes in drachma, then..

Greeks will accept drachma as payment.

This is the way most fiat currencies work, including ours.

[badtoworse]

92. How much will gasoline cost in drachmas?

How about the other imported goods and services used by Greeks? What about the exchange rate to dollars or euros?

The point is that things will be just as bad, at least in the short run. It will be austerity administered in a different way.

[cthulu2016]

93. But they will be free!

Don't you understand how wonderful extreme poverty is?

Based on opinions in this thread a catastrophic collapse in buying power will usher in a new Golden Age of dancing and singing and love.

Haven't you noticed that the excess 3-4% of Americans needlessly freed from employment recently have all become happy artists?

[girl gone mad]

95. In the short run their currency will depreciate severely.

There is no doubt about that.

But this is not an entirely bad thing. See Argentina.

Greeks will be forced to buy more goods and services within the domestic economy, and a devalued currency will also make their goods and services more attractive to foreigners, which will grow tourism and trade.

[badtoworse]

98. Maybe we'll plan a vacation in Greece if they're not fighting a civil war

Probably be able to get some good deals. I was there on vacation about 30 years ago - it's nice, especially Corfu.

[Odin2005]

57. GO, SYRIZA, GO!!!

[tama]

59. Latest poll from Attica: Syriza 32%

Syriza: 31.9% (20.7)
New Democracy: 13.8% (13.7)
Independent Greeks: 12.8% (11.7)
Pasok: 8.7% (8.7)
Communist Party: 6.8% (9.37)
Golden Dawn: 5.8% (8.7)
Democratic Left: 5.5% (5.9)
Recreate Greece: 3.5% (2.9)
Ecogreens: 3.4% (3.3)
Popular Orthodox Rally (Laos): 3% (3.2)
Drasi: 2.5% (2.6)
Democratic Alliance: 1.2% (2)
Anticapitalist Left (Antarsya): 0.6% (1.25)
Social Pact: 0.4% (1.02)
http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/1/55512

With 4% treshold and 50 seats for the biggest party, 35%+ of the seats + 50 would give Syriza simple majority in the parliament and ability to form the governement alone. But as said, this is only from Attica and not whole of Greece. Most notable shift is from KKE to Syriza.

[muriel_volestrangler]

61. They need 40%+ of the seats, plus the 50 extra seats, to get a simple majority

300 seats, 50 go to the leading party, so 250 are divided up. A simple majority is 150+, so they need 100+ seats out of the 250; ie 40%+.

That live blog has a new country-wide poll:

2pm We've a new nationwide poll, this time from the VPRC company and published in Epikaira magazine. It was carried out between May 10-14 on a sample of 804 people.

It shows voter intention and includes don't know, abstentions, etc. The actual share of the valid poll would be higher in each case, in the event of an election.

Party: (voter intention)

Syriza: 20.3%
New Democracy: 14.2%
Pasok: 10.9%
Democratic Left: 6.1%
Communist Party: 4.4%
Independent Greeks: 3.7%
Golden Dawn: 2.2%
Recreate Greece: 1.6%

Other parties 2.3%
Undecided: 17.3%
Don't know/No answer: 6%

So, Golden Dawn disappearing (hooray!), but a lot still undecided. Those numbers there only add up to 89%, incuding the 'undecided' and 'don't know' figures, so I'm not sure how much that can be analysed. If you assume that the top 6 will get over the threshold, then, of the total for those top 6, Syiza has about 34% of decided votes - so not enough yet to govern on its own. Democratic Left has another 10% or so, so perhaps a coalition of those 2 could be possible.

They also have a new caretaker PM - a lawyer.

[tama]

67. I was thinking

100+ out of the 300 (34% minimum) + 50. Not sure how it is exactly calculated, you could be right.

[tama]

60. 50% of Greek police voting fascists

Nevertheless, the frightening revival of fascism in Greece cannot be attributed solely to failures of the anti-memorandum forces. It was the main political parties of Pasok and New Democracy who opened the parliament's door to rightwing extremism. Their austerity frenzy not only destroyed the main pillars of Greek society but also legitimised deeply undemocratic procedures. The constitution was circumvented several times to allow for non-elected officials to implement policies limiting workers' rights.

Just a few days before the general election members of the coalition government and the mainstream media orchestrated an all-out racist attack on immigrants. Ministers of public order and health even supported the public humiliation of prostitutes who where found to be HIV-positive. Young girls who were brought as slaves to Greece were transferred in front of TV cameras with handcuffs and hospital masks – as if Aids is transmitted by air.

The Pasok and New Democracy flirtation with far-right extremism didn't start just before the elections, however. In order to stay in power and implement the catastrophic economic policy of the IMF and ECB, they created a coalition government with Popular Orthodox Rally, or Laos – an extreme rightwing formation that formerly had close relations with Golden Dawn. The technocratic government of Lucas Papademos even distributed ministerial positions to former supporters of the Greek junta while the EU was applauding the "stability" of a non-elected government. Given this attitude, no one was surprised when European policymakers threatened to stop the full transfer of bailout funds while Greece was trying to form a democratic government.

Golden Dawn is also alleged to have close relations with the police. Recent reports have suggested that one in two police officers voted for the party and for several years citizens, journalists and politicians have been condemning its relationship with special riot-control The internet is flooded with pictures and videos of uniformed police working side by side with neo-Nazi thugs throwing stones at demonstrators, union members and even journalists.

It's has been known long time that Greek Police works with and supports Golden Dawn:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Dawn_%28Greece%29#Allegations_of_connections_to_the_Greek_Police

[socialist_n_TN]

65. The armed forces of a country are ALWAYS the potential......

counterbalance to the reactionary or fascist police forces. It will take the Greek military (bottom up, NOT top down) siding with the people in order to defeat not only the fascists, but the capitalists also.

As it ever is.

[Raksha]

96. You're right about the military being the counterbalance. Something to keep in mind. n/t

[socialist_n_TN]

103. Yeah. If I were agitating in Greece, I'd be headed ..........

for the barracks. Metaphorically anyway. Gotta get the grunts on the side of the people. If you do, fuck what the generals want to do. They were shot during '17 if they didn't go along with the soviets.

[closeupready]

69. Greece will be fine. Reports of its pending death are

greatly exaggerated, IMO.

[FarCenter]

74. Under almost any scenario, the Greek people would be better off than the Iranians are

[girl gone mad]

90. I agree, they will be alright..

despite the hysteria from people who seem to have only just started to pay attention.

[girl gone mad]

99. In response to your "Personal Plea"..

I'll say once again, what you describe - private debts and mortgages doubling, etc. - already happened.

What other effect do you think drastically cutting wages and raising taxes and fees would have but to make the burden of all Euro-denominated debts that much greater for the average Greek citizen?

This is the reason that the Greek people are finally rejecting austerity (though I'm at a loss to explain what took them so long). If your wages are cut in half by austerity, you can't make your mortgage payment, precisely the same as if your wages were cut in half by currency devaluation. The difference is that once Greece devalues, they have a real chance to again be globally competitive. The government can again buy more goods and services from the people and lift more out of poverty, rather than having to continually cut back. No, it will not be easy, but the road they are on right now is a total dead end.