OK folks - this will be a TD before the day is out and probably TS Danny

[malaise]

not long after. Too early to know where this is heading.

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure
located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands has continued to become better organized this morning.
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development,
and only a slight increase in organization would result in the
formation of a tropical depression later today while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cwydro]

1. We could sure use some rain in the Carolinas.

This drought has had me wondering about storms...

[malaise]

2. Storms are part of the cycle of life

I'd settle for a tropical storm in Jamaica right now.
No storms - no water. Lots of places in the Caribbean have water restrictions - we need the rain. Hopefully we'll get some without Cat3 or above hurricanes.

[cwydro]

3. I agree.

I lived in the Keys for over 20 years, and remember this time of year well.

Suffered heavy damage in Georges and Wilma, and minor in many others.

But I've always loved storms. And this drought up here has me pulling my hair out in frustration.

[malaise]

6. Yes the thought of heavy damage is scary

and there are many people who cannot afford any damage let alone heavy damage -but we do want the rain.

[cwydro]

7. It's very scary.

I think y'all in Jamaica are way better equipped to handle storms than the Keys. But hurricanes are terrifying critters.

The only answer in the Keys was basically "get the hell out!"

Which we never did.

Great book I just read called "Isaac's Storm" about the Galveston hurricane of 1900. I recommend it highly. Almost gave me PTSD reading about the surge.

[malaise]

8. When you wrote that you lived there for 20 years

I did think that nothing would make me stay in the Keys for a hurricane. I'd be the first car to reach the mainland

[cwydro]

9. Lol. We spent some scary nights in Key West.

After Andrew, CNN reported that the Keys had been wiped off the map.

Terrified my parents (in the Carolinas), and we could not get word out to them because the tie-line to the mainland was down. We didn't even get a breeze from that storm, but we were without electricity for weeks because it tore up the area south of Miami.

Since stupid CNN could not get through to the Keys, they assumed we were gone. Stupid morons panicked a lot of people. We all had to send messages through anyone driving out of the Keys after the storm.

Georges and Wilma had some very scary surges. Rita skirted by us, and I remember blue lightning that terrified me. I'll never forget those storms as long as I live.

Stay safe down there!

[malaise]

10. I remember driving around Miami a few months after Andrew

I could not believe the destruction and I lived though Gilbert in Jamaica.
I gave my sis and her husband instructions about windows as Andrew approached and their place survived while most around them were completely destroyed. We learned a lot from Gilbert.

CNN doesn't care about anything but ratings and promoting its agenda.
2005 was a hurricane year for the history books.

[cwydro]

12. Yeah, during 2005,

we started calling it the "hurricane of the month club." It was funny in a way.

We had just moved to a new place, and I'm a crazy landscaper type person. Everywhere I move, I plant and landscape.

I think Dennis was first, who took out some plants. Then Katrina, who took the gazebo and more plants. (Katrina, of course, went on to infamy) Then Rita, who scared the pants off all of us because we were told it would wipe the Keys out. (lies) Then Wilma, who took the trailer we lived in and my best friend's car. My yard with all its plants was leveled. I think there was another in there somewhere, maybe a tropical storm...

I lost my car in Georges, and I parked my truck near a bridge (high ground) for Wilma.

I remember Gilbert. That one makes all my 'canes look puny. Glad you got through that one!

[malaise]

18. Looks like you had way more hurricane damage than

I can recall. We had no water and electricity for weeks after Gilbert. I packed up and headed to the US for two weeks.

[Are_grits_groceries]

4. I know we need the rain.

Be careful what you wish for.

[malaise]

5. True

but we need a lot of rain

[malaise]

14. Now TD 4

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3075

[DawgHouse]

20. What's a blessing for one is a curse for another!

OT - I am mesmerized by the kitties in your signature!

[B2G]

11. Do you read the forums on Storm2K?

Great stuff with lots of Pro Mets weighing in.

Link to their active storms forum:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum.php?f=59

[malaise]

13. Thanks - I usually read the comments

on Masters' blog at Weather Underground.

[B2G]

15. Storm2K is awesome

They have 2 threads going right now on TD4 (soon to be Danny).

[malaise]

16. Now Danny

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/tropical-storm-Danny

[cwydro]

17. keep us posted ok?

Still hoping. Sigh.

[malaise]

19. Won't be much news until Thursday or Friday

when it will probably be clearer where he's going and by which time they are saying he should be a hurricane. If this is heading for mainland USA, it will be next week.

[TBF]

21. Watching in Texas ...

but it would be early for us ...

[malaise]

22. Yep - keep an eye

They're saying this will stall out near Puerto Rico and then several factors will decide the track after that.