Democrats to Win in a Landslide in 2016, According to Moody's Election Model.

[elleng]

Our Moody's Analytics election model now predicts a Democratic electoral landslide in the 2016 presidential vote. A small change in the forecast data in August has swung the outcome from the statistical tie predicted in July, to a razor-edge ballot outcome that nevertheless gives the incumbent party 326 electoral votes to the Republican challenger's 212.

Just three states account for the change in margin, with Ohio, Florida and Colorado swinging from leaning Republican to leaning Democrat. The margin of victory in each of these important swing states is still solidly within the margin of error though, and will likely swing back and forth in Moody's monthly updates ahead, underlining the closeness of the election to come. Furthermore, three of the candidates for the Republican nomination enjoy favorite-son status in Ohio or Florida, potentially making the outcome of those important states even more unpredictable.

It takes 270 electoral votes to win a U.S. presidential election. Our July forecast predicted a Democratic win with 270 electoral votes, to 268 for the Republican, regardless of who wins either party's nomination. Read More: Deep Dive Into Moody's Model.

The primary factor driving the results further to the incumbent party in August is lower gasoline prices. Plummeting prices and changing dynamics in global energy markets from Chinese weakness and the Iranian nuclear deal have caused us to significantly lower our gasoline price forecast for the next several years. This variable is very significant to voter sentiment in the model, with lower prices favoring incumbents.

It is important to note that the model does not reflect results if an election were held today, but relies on Moody's Analytics economic forecasts to determine what the world will look like in November 2016. Should gasoline prices rebound above the current baseline forecast by election time, the results of the model will move more in favor of the challenging Republicans. The forecast for house prices also accelerated moderately.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/13271435/1/democrats-to-win-in-a-landslide-in-2016-according-to-moody-s-election-model.html

[INdemo]

1. I dont see any predictions about election

theft factored in..Republicans are very good a stealing votes

[NV Whino]

2. It's what they do with the landslide that counts.

[Fred Sanders]

3. Common Sense Analytics, by Fred Sanders, also forecasts a landslide for democracy over fascism. Hence the no

holds barred mud wrestling of the GOP and their co-dependent media.

Keep an eye on the voting machines, Election Day voter suppression and deceit and also Electoral College shenanigans even more carefully this time around.

[ileus]

4. Yeah we've got this wrapped up no matter who we run, or who they run.

They just simply don't have the votes to beat us in a 50 state election anymore. WE will never lose the presidency again...mark my word.

[Springslips]

5. You never cross the same river twice.

The world is always in flux; things chance.

I mean, your right in that the GOP as it is today struggles to win a national election considering the current electorate. But I wouldn't say they never will win again. Things will change. The GOP would move left after a few more loses,especially if demographics effect congressional midterms. Or a event could happen that swings the people to the right. But more likely it will be either of these two: one, the Third Wayers and bluedogs will go to the GOP making the split left of the spectrum; or more likely two, in 50-years what we think as left and right will be way different then we can imagine today.

The GOP is certain to rise back in the future. It is still possible they could win today; but that slim possibility is evaporating by the hour.

[7962]

22. The only way the GOP rises in the future is if they run a Democrat. nt

[jtuck004]

6. Since 1980, reported 90% accuracy...

"The primary factor driving the results further to the incumbent party in August is lower gasoline prices. Plummeting prices and changing dynamics in global energy markets from Chinese weakness and the Iranian nuclear deal have caused us to significantly lower our gasoline price forecast for the next several years. This variable is very significant to voter sentiment in the model, with lower prices favoring incumbents. "

i.e. what happened to Carter.


But we saw how crazy-making that was. As prices go down, we burn more, and burn up the earth we need to live.

We know better than that now, and we are not so venal, selfish, and suicidal.

[Marty McGraw]

7. Haven't any you learned...

...from the new Star Wars Trailer? Just when you would think it had been snuffed away for good....

[left-of-center2012]

8. ...from the new Star Wars Trailer?

Darth Vader was just on TV past day or so, patting himself on the back for the success of the Iraq War.

[muntrv]

17. Darth Vader, unlike Darth Cheney, actually fought in wars he started.

[Elmer S. E. Dump]

28. At least the bastard had the guts to apologize.

[Fearless]

23. Zing!

[Demeter]

9. We need the legislature, House and Senate

to give Bernie the help to revolutionize America.

[Jamaal510]

12. +1

[NYCButterfinger]

10. I wait and see. They are plenty of factors in this prediction.

Economy, health care, foreign affairs, criminal justice reform, etc. It depends on who the Republican nominee is.

[meir34]

11. this year style seems to matter more than substance-at least on the Rep. side

Trump's bombastic and egotistical style-e.g. I'm the greatest negotiator G-d ever "created"--seems to preempt any discussion of his simplistic and unworkable policies. Marshall McCluhan was right so far. The medium is the message. Can that continue all the way until next November? @ pragmaticliberalism.com

[Helen Borg]

13. Oh good. We are done then. No need to vote.

[V0ltairesGh0st]

14. What about Congress?

What are the predictions 2016 senate and house races ?

What about Governors ?

[Gman]

25. Congress is gerrymandered GOP. Nothing fixes that

Democrats must win back statehouses and state legislatures by 2020 to reverse GOP influence.

That means it would not be until at least 2021, that a reelected Dem president can make significant changes.

That also means by the end of 2017 many Democrats will whine and complain that the Democrat elected president in 2016 (regardless of who it is) is just more of the same.

You read it hear first.

[davidpdx]

30. The House is gerrymandered

The Senate in 2016 will certainly be up for grabs with as many seats as the Republicans will be defending.

[L. Coyote]

32. Not the Senate where Dems are going to gain seats.

?1440527342

[Gman]

34. That's true but

We need both houses. Or else gridlock continues as it did before we lost the Senate.

[bucolic_frolic]

15. Is this Moody's the Bond Ratings Firm?

Guess so ... Moody's Analytics

[SpankMe]

16. It's too early to be making predictions - even predictions based on current data.

So much can change between now and Nov. 2016 that predictions like this are not only useless, but potentially harmful. Harmful because it could cause some voters to not go through the trouble of voting because "Moody's says the Dems will win in a landslide. If it's a done deal, then I won't make the effort to vote, so I can stick to my video games..."

[Stevepol]

18. I hope the landslide happens

but unless Bernie or whoever the Dem candidate is, pays attention to the RED SHIFT for the other candidates down ballot it will all be for nothing. The voting machine companies have it down to a science by now and unless there is some way to VERIFY THE VOTE, nothing will be accomplished even if, in reality, the Dems win their elections (as Gore and Kerry did and as many many other Dems down ballot have done in the last decade and a half), because the voting machines will make sure that the insuperable stumbling block of Republican numbers is maintained.

VERIFY THE VOTE!!

[bluestateguy]

19. But it's a very sensitive model that can be easily change

And they have all but said that they will make future revisions to their model.

[davidn3600]

21. We are what...14 months away?

[youceyec]

24. yeah

stop with the premature whatever. what are we Romney supporters?

[fredamae]

26. Not if they keep pulling

crap like This, imo!

"The issue could later haunt Castro, who has been mentioned as a leading candidate to become Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton's running mate for the 2016 election."


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/julián-castro-helps-wall-street-criminals-dodge-accountability_55e5d0dae4b0aec9f3549597?utm_hp_ref=politics

[TalkingDog]

27. I'm just a talking dog, not a praying one.

But I'm tempted to start.

Logged in just to and recommend this post.

[bigdarryl]

29. This is TOTAL BULLSHIT!!! the democrats are not going to win this election in a landslide in fact

We may end up loosing with the possibility of a nasty primary fight especially if Biden gets in.This is starting to smell like 1968 and 1980 all over again

[L. Coyote]

35. Thanks for the warning before reading the rest.

TOTAL BULLSHIT

[LynneSin]

31. The only way we can screw up 2016 is with a shitty VP selection

I think what hurt John Kerry in 2004 and even Al Gore in 2000 is lackluster VP selections. Edwards and Lieberman were horrible choices that did not inspire voters.

2008 and 2012 we had high voter turnout because of Barack Obama. He helped solidify his youth by bringing in Joe Biden to round out the ticket with experience.

More than likely the Democratic Nominee is going to be an older White person - either Clinton, Sanders or possibly Biden himself if he jumps in the Race. What these people need in order to bring in huge voter turnout is a candidate that can bring in extra energy to the ticket. These candidates need to reach out to the voters and especially to one of the largest voting blocks out there which is the Hispanic population. I think that is why Joaquim Castro (or is it Julio, I get the twins mixed up) would be a great choice for the VP. I also think Cory Booker should be strongly considered.

Any of the top 3 Presidential contenders for the Democrats bring experience to the ticket, something that Obama did not have. So these Nominees should not bring experience as their VP but youth and excitement. I know some people talk about Warren but honestly, I think that would be a step backwards for her. She better serves us in congress where if we play our cards right she could hold a Committee Chair in the 2017 Senate Majority. Her voice would be much more powerful there than as a Vice President.

[ileus]

33. The GOP may win AK and WV....and maybe not WV.

That would give us 49 states...