Here we go again hurricane folks -TD7 will be Grace late tonight or

[malaise]

tomorrow - she's days away from creating problems but keep an eye on soon to be Grace

[Lochloosa]

1. She is pretty low. Might be one to watch.

[malaise]

2. After Dominica

and a lil tropical storm named Erika, the entire Caribbean is watching.

[yeoman6987]

5. So much for the forecast saying it was going to be a

quiet season. I wish I went into meteorology. What a great job. Oh you were wrong. Oh well better luck next time.

[malaise]

9. Well no one would have predicted a Cape Verde hurricane

and no one told the poor people of Dominica that rain from Erika would create close to 15 non-stop hours of rain on that small mountainous island full of rivers.
The thing is that the storms aren't traveling well. They are facing some serious challenges

[laundry_queen]

10. In my opinion

The meteorologists of today rely entirely too much on computer models. One slightly wobbly variable can radically vary the outcomes of the computer models. I would hope that most meteorologists also use their instinct and experience, but I'm guessing a good many only work with the variables put in and solely go by what the computer spits out.

[Gothmog]

3. Thanks for the warning

[tkmorris]

4. The model consensus says this is likely a fish (a storm which doesn't affect land)

Of course forecasting being what it is that is far from a certainty, especially this far out. I haven't seen any model support for it becoming a hurricane anytime soon, though a few do have it becoming a Tropical Storm at some point in the next 48 hours. Interestingly, the longer the storm remains weak the further south it's track will likely be, thus increasing the chances that it will affect those land masses in the Caribbean.

[malaise]

8. Yep - it's a TS now

but it may not become a hurricane. We need to pay attention

[1939]

11. "fish spinner" is the term. NT

[Tipperary]

6. Keep us posted!

Thank you for the update too!

[malaise]

7. It's now Tropical Storm Grace

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0715W5+gif/203225W_sm.gif