I don't see Jeb as either Michael or Fredo. I see him as Sonny.
I.e., the one who peaked too soon.
He was Senior's Golden Boy, and the one people thought would avenge his father's loss. But in 1994 he lost to Lawton Chiles in the Florida governor's race. While he ran again and won in 1998, it was too late for him to make a run in 2000. Dubya had won his race in 1994 and had already been suited to be the Bush II that probably would have otherwise been Jeb. Dubya took the White House (in his own way) and defecated all over it and the Bush family name, and Jeb's been at a disadvantage ever since.
I would argue that Jeb's national political career ended before it began.
We may have the late Gov. Lawton Chiles to thank to save us from another Bush in the White House.
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this Sonny.
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I only remember one thing about Sonny lol.
I still remember the page number in the paperback my friends passed around at a party. 
Nah, I don't think that's jeb.