Are we the first, or one of the first civilizations in the galaxy?

[Humanist_Activist]

I was thinking about this since the so called "megastructure" was discovered. Its likely its a natural phenomenon that was previously unknown, or has another, equally mundane, explanation, or it could be evidence of an alien civilization, who knows.

There's a relatively common trope in science fiction of "progenitors". Civilizations that rose to power millions or billions of years ago, in most sci-fi, they became extinct or are hiding.

But how likely is that to be true?

The universe is young, being about 13.82 billion years old, an unimaginably long time. However, remember this, it took several "generations" of star formation and violent star death before rocky, metal rich planets could form. Our sun was born about 4.6 billion years ago, from a metal and silica rich molecular cloud that was able to form us.

The fact is that it seems likely that the sun was one of the earliest possible solar systems to form in the galaxy that has the conditions necessary for life and civilization, with the right mix of elements to allow Earth to form.

Add to this the fact that for most of Earth's existence, life was simple microbes and amoeba, which may have arose within 500 million years of Earth's formation, perhaps even sooner after it cooled. But that leaves 3 to 3.5 billion years before multicellular life arose, after the great oxygenation events in the Pre-Cambrian or so. From there, it still took about half a billion years for civilization to arise.

Should we expect another planet to develop civilization quicker than ours?

Could we be the progenitors? It would be one explanation for the Fermi Paradox, perhaps we are the ones who are supposed to be, thousands of years from now, a galaxy spanning civilization. Assuming we don't destroy ourselves first, and the ruins discovered by others in the far future, pondering what we must have been like.

[exboyfil]

1. I agree with you

I don't think that evolution necessarily leads to technological life. We need to look no further than our sky to know that our planet is unusual (our moon). Is such a moon a necessary condition for life? The dinosaurs had a long time to evolve into tool users, and they never did.

100 billion stars is a large number, but once you start adding small probabilities in, the Drake equation starts predicting very low numbers. I have heard projections of a trillion year life for our galaxy. Small stars can live 100 billion years. The 100 billion is probably a good estimate for stars capable of harboring life in the Milky Way.

You really can't project with a sample size of one, but you can look at individual probabilities of specific events that led us to this point. Of course ours is probably not the only path to a technological civilization.

What is the lifespan for a technological civilization?

[Humanist_Activist]

4. If we get into probabilities, it seems possible that life might be common...

civilizations vanishingly rare if we aren't unique entirely.

Sample size of one is a problem, but its better than zero, so we can't ever say that life, or even civilization is impossible to exist in the universe, for we exist.

Also, I've heard that red dwarves actually have lifespans going into trillions of years, and they are the most common type of star in the galaxy.

As far as lifespan of the Galaxy, I think its about 4 billion years, when it will begin to merge with the Andromeda Galaxy. The resulting galaxy, coined Milkmedia, will have over a trillion stars in it.

I do wonder about the lifespan of technological civilization. I guess even a civilization that has colonized several solar systems could theoretically collapse. And a nearby supernova or gamma ray burst could wipe out at least a localized civilization. Thankfully, from our observations, we are too far away from any star likely to go boom anytime soon to cause us harm.

[FLPanhandle]

7. +1

Life might be common but civilizations rare. Sort of like a few fireflies. A flash here and gone. Another flash. Not too many existing at the same time.

[hobbit709]

2. You are assuming we are civilized.

[LanternWaste]

5. Our collective cultures on earth fit well within the definition of "civilization".

Our collective cultures on earth fit well within the definition of "civilization" (complex society characterized by urban development, symbolic communication forms, and a perceived separation from and local/regional domination over the natural environment).

Seems a safe assumption... unless one needs to redefine words to better validate a bias.

[lumberjack_jeff]

3. Here's my logic on the matter

The universe is 14 billion years old.
The earth and this solar system in general, have been an interesting place to visit for about 4 billion years
The moon's surface has been mostly unchanged for about 500 million years. The only trace of technology on the moon is shit we've put there.
Technological civilization is about 1000 years old, and has advertised its presence for about 100 years.
We've sent robots to the outer reaches of our system and are now on their way to other stars. In 1000 years, self-repairing and replicating robotic probes will litter our part of the galaxy. Yet, they meet no counterparts from elsewhere.
The fact that the galaxy itself isn't entirely composed of gray goo is an interesting observation.
So, Fermi was right?
Perhaps not.
Consider this;

at least one of three possibilities is true:
1) The human species is likely to go extinct before reaching a "posthuman" stage.
2) Any posthuman civilization is very unlikely to run a significant number of simulations of its evolutionary history.
3) We are almost certainly living in a computer simulation.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121210132752.htm

[BlueJazz]

6. We're most likely in the first 100 as far as mental abilities over a worm-thing. I'm starting to ..

...think that we're not going to make it simply because of the population growth plus we've allowed our planet to heat up (as in now) and quite frankly, our so-called leaders seem to know about all the above less than even the most science-deficient person on DU.

[longship]

8. Well, space is really, really big.

I think that the answer to the Fermi paradox is that civilizations are far apart in the galaxy and interstellar travel is ridiculously difficult. That is entirely consistent with what we know about the universe. I would be comfortable if there were warp drives and such, but then the Fermi paradox would be a real puzzlement.

Maybe I prefer reality as it is, however how can one know?

[Codeine]

9. I hadn't ever looked at it like that before.

I think you're probably right, or at least convincing.