Is California headed for a Dem vs Dem Senate race in November?
The latest statewide Field Poll finds many voters not paying much attention to California's upcoming June open primary election to succeed Barbara Boxer for U.S. Senate. Greater than four in ten likely voters (44%) say they are undecided or do not express a preference. However, among voters who do offer a choice, state Attorney General Kamala Harris continues to lead, with 27% of likely voters supporting her candidacy. In second is fellow Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez at 15%. Three Republicans – Assemblyman Rocky Chavez, and two former California Republican party chairmen, Duf Sundheim and Tom Del Beccaro – trail in single digits.
Preferences at this stage are largely partisan and ideological, with both Harris and Sanchez the choice of most of the Democrats and liberals expressing a preference, and the Republicans dividing up the preferences of likely GOP and conservative voters. However, about twice as many Republicans (58%) and strong conservatives (66%) are undecided in the poll as are Democrats (30%) and strong liberals (27%). Because of this, the current standings could change once more Republican and strong conservatives weigh in on the contest, especially if one of the Republicans is able to attract their attention and interest.
Both Harris and Sanchez are better known than are their GOP rivals. About six in ten likely primary election voters (59%) can offer an opinion of Harris, with 38% viewing her favorably and 21% unfavorably. About half of the likely June electorate (51%) expresses an opinion of Sanchez, although views about the Santa Ana Congresswoman are more mixed, with 27% viewing her positively and 24% negatively. By contrast, only about three in ten likely voters have formed an opinion of the three Republicans, and each receives more negative than positive ratings among those expressing an opinion.
The latest survey is the third time The Field Poll has gauged likely voter preferences in the U.S. Senate race. Since the June election for U.S. Senate will be an open primary, all candidates regardless of party will be listed together on the same ballot and voters from all parties can choose to vote for a candidate from any party. The top two finishers regardless of party affiliation then move on to a fall general election showdown.
http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2523.pdf
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