Can Donald Trump capture any Democratic votes in a general election?

[kentuck]

Some think he might.

http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-01-08/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-is-a-real-threat-to-hillary-clinton

<snip>
So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct?

A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn't be a cakewalk.

The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans.

...more

[Rex]

1. No.

I have not encountered a single Dem that would vote for him. Also, I know many conservative women (that vote GOP) that HATE him and have told me they are going to vote for HRC.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

9. I have encountered such.

So, yes, they do exist.

[Rex]

12. Well probably depends on where we live.

I was surprised to see such anger from my older aunts, they usually vote GOP like a punch ticket. Trump has really soured them toward the GOP.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

13. Ohioans got hit HARD by the trade deals.

We're the 'rust belt'. Clintons pushed hard for early trade deals, and Hillary spent her time as SoS shepherding the TPP along. Trump has actually come out against it, although probably simply as part of his overall xenophobia. The state is a sea of red, too, with only a few major pockets of blue, really.

[Rex]

15. Same here Texas is a sea of red.

Most here are still reeling from losing their jobs in the fracking industry. Many won't talk about it, but rich towns like Houston have been devastated, so when some asshole like Trump comes along...they instantly start thinking, 'wars and wages!' and vote like pre-programmed robots.

It is a sad state of affairs.

[imanamerican63]

2. I would like to think that we are smart than taht, but hey? This is nothing like we have before!

[old guy]

3. No.

[lumberjack_jeff]

4. Yes, he can.

Populism is gonna win this one, we'd better nominate a populist.

[0rganism]

5. height of primary season probably not the best time to poll for crossover voting

just look at GD: P, emotions and sensitivities run high, people swear back and forth they won't vote for the opposing primary candidate in the general. i would expect both Republicans and Democrats to more or less line up with their respective candidates post-convention, with defections either way less than 10%.

[Matrosov]

6. A few out of spite

Based on some of the hateful shit flinging I've seen in GD: P, I wouldn't put it past some Dems to vote for Trump if their preferred candidate didn't win the Democratic nomination.

I seriously doubt there'd be significant crossover, though. There's a much bigger chance of some Dems simply staying home on election day because their preferred candidate didn't win the nomination, but on the other hand there is also a good chance of some Republicans staying home if Trump becomes the Republican nominee.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

10. I think most folks who dislike Hillary

would likely vote Green instead.

[doc03]

19. Just vote for a Republican and get it over with n/t

[LiberalElite]

7. I think so. nt

[femmocrat]

8. Remember the "reagan democrats"?

If there are any left, they could easily go for drumpf.

[nichomachus]

11. Reagan had no problem

"Reagan Democrats" are what put him in office.

The Republicans are stuck with Trump because they didn't take him and his followers seriously. Now, the Democrats are making the same mistake.

[questionseverything]

14. he already has

in '08 in the sc dem primary there were 532,151 votes

in '16 370,719

that is 161,432 less voters

while the repubs had record turn out

<shrugs>

[Andy823]

16. Not from "real" Democrats

Of course "fake" ones would.

[Bleacher Creature]

17. It doesn't matter.

The number of Latinos and POC he's going to drive to the polls to vote against him will more than overcome any misguided Democrats (including anyone still spiteful and bitter from the primary).

[doc03]

18. There will be thousands of steelworkers, aluminum workers, auto workers

and other manufacturing workers that will switch. Also there are thousands of coal miners that have switched parties.
The Democratic party has not been a friend of Union workers for decades. The middle class blue collar workers have been
sold out by both parties for decades.