the current Republican dilemma is the fulfillment of a process that began 70 years ago
during the '50s and early '60s, the southern racists were a core voting block of the Democratic party. in 1948, president Truman desegregated the military by executive order, spurring then-Democrat Strom Thurmond to splinter off the "Dixiecrat" party. as the civil rights movement progressed, "Dixiecrats" and other unincorporated racists were increasingly alienated from Democratic politics, a phenomenon crowned by LBJ's signing of civil rights legislation in the '60s.
enter Richard Nixon and his campaign strategist Kevin Phillips. Nixon's solution to putting a Republican (himself) back in the white house involved incorporating these disgruntled southern racists into the Republican party, formerly a party serving the interests of Northern Industrialists and Banksters. it worked, forming the unholy union of the well-heeled establishment and ultra-conservative xenophobes that characterize, today, the gobbledygook we know as American Conservativism: a hodge-podge of supply side economics, tax cuts for the rich, union busting, hyper-religiosity, sexism, racism, and a rainbow of miscellaneous bigotry worn as a badge of honor. modern Republicans rightly credit Reagan as a leading paragon of their conservative movement, being one of the first to represent this bag of disparate evil bullshit as a coherent appealing whole.
interestingly enough, aligning with the Republicans has given the Dixiecrats precious little payback over the years. the issues they might regard as important, such as restoring segregation to various institutions, affirming the supremacy of the white race, restricting access to birth control, and supplanting ungodly science with appropriate Bible verses, were given lip service for decades while the Republican establishment focused unsurprisingly on transferring as much of the nation's wealth as possible to capitalists, i.e. what they'd been working on for most of the prior century.
and here is where we see the dissatisfaction arise that fuels Trumpism. all these years, presidencies, congressional majorities, conservative SCOTUS majorities, what has it all gotten the Dixiecrat contingency? nothing important. the southern racists are now beginning (correctly) to see that the Republican party never intended to be their vehicle for true regressive change, but rather used them as an electoral prop, nothing more. the establishment enriched its core constituency quite successfully, but what did it do for the Dixiecrats, many of whom were adversely affected by the upward transfer of wealth? a lot of lip service, and the ephemeral thrill of sometimes rooting for a winning team.
in 2009, they woke up to a black president, which must have been a bit like having a Freddy Kreuger alarm clock. who was there to validate their racism? who was there to tell them the president was illegitimate? one man dared to press the case that Barack Obama was inherently ineligible for the office, one man told them the words they so desperately needed to hear.
for these people, Trump is the first candidate to put forth a message that truly addresses their long held concerns about the direction of our country. the slogan "Make America Great Again" seems bizarre to some of us, as it embeds two implicit concepts that elude those of us not attuned to the dog-whistles of the right wing. it raises questions such as"When did America stop being great?" and "To what greatness are we trying to return?" outside the context of the disillusioned racist, these questions really don't have answers, but in that context we can actually make sense of them: the Great America is the Segregated America of the 20th century, before 1948 in particular.
the Republican establishment is watching in horror as the Dixiecrats and their allies begin to flex electoral muscle. what can they do now? America has changed, getting a share of the minority vote is essential for attaining the presidency; if the racist branch of the Republican party has its way and runs Trump as the nominee, that share will be a fraction of what they need for a win, and repercussions will be felt downticket.
their carefully crafted coalition of bankers and bigots is about to get its ass handed to it in an election where they should have had some advantages (2-term incumbent, mediocre economic recovery, lingering overseas military activity). they can squirm and wriggle as much as they like, but there aren't a lot of legal moves left for them on this chessboard. get in line behind Trump? electoral disaster for the next 12 years. run a 3rd-party candidate or a write-in? also splits the coalition, while tainting the Republican brand just as much -- even worse. nominate an establishment goon through a convention floor fight? Trump will likely (and correctly) regard this as a breach of trust by the GOP and run as an independent, leading to an electoral slaughter in 2016 but one which is probably more survivable for the Republican party long-term.
those are the options Republican leadership is faced with. unless they can find a way to placate the Donald so he doesn't run as an independent candidate, they are well and truly "schlonged". and who's next in line behind the vulgar talking yam? oh, that would be Sen. Cruz, possibly acceptable for a number of social conservatives, but generally repulsive to the establishment. that's a long shot right there.
Nixon's chickens have come home to roost. today is a good day to be a Democrat. earlier in the year, i was worried and upset about this election, but not anymore. Trump has made 2016 great again.
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