General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe Path to Convention Chaos
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/republican-contention-chaos-213725If Trump can win both states, hes on a glide path to earning a majority of delegates ahead of the July 18 convention. The only way to dethrone him at that point would be for the GOP to throw out its existing convention rules. A move that dramatic wont happen. It would divide and destroy a party that has always prided itself on adhering to rules.
But if Trump doesnt win both states, the GOP is likely to find itself in Cleveland with no candidate above the 1,237-delegate majority needed to claim the nomination. If that happens, the Republican Partys own rules lock in a quagmire in Clevelandand likely a multi-ballot, no-holds-barred convention.
The craziness will unfold in stages, with more delegates increasingly freeing up to vote for whomever they like as the process advances. All that puts a huge premium on an obscure and intricate competition happening right now in each statethe selection of the actual delegates. Any campaign not waging a major, if under-the-national-radar, effort to get its supporters elected as delegates will come up short in Cleveland.
Skittles
(153,160 posts)Renew Deal
(81,859 posts)If he wins 4 of 5 he's just as well off. Losing both or losing 3 of 5 would lead to a convention fight.
pampango
(24,692 posts)Tomorrow is like Groundhog Day. If, OTOH, a contested convention looms, we can expect 6 more weeks (at least) of 'winter' - meaning open racism, bigotry and xenophobia - to keep up his electoral appeal to the republican base.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)the convention got, most conservatives would ultimately get behind one nominated leader. Because that's the way they usually behave, and because one thing all factions share to various degrees is a belief that they need to stop the Terrible Left. Some may have broken the leash, but all have been well trained in attack-and-defend.
A big question might be what effect a calamitous convention would have on turnout in November.