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The Myth of the Trump Democrat
White working-class Democrats won’t be fleeing the party to vote for Donald Trump.
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Donald Trump is wily, unpredictable, unprincipled, and opportunistic. And for some observers, this makes him a formidable prospect in a general election. “To be successful as a Republican candidate you have to be the equivalent of a neutron bomb,” said Republican strategist Steve Schmidt to the Washington Post. “He’s a neutron bomb. Donald Trump has been disruptive in the way Uber has been disruptive in the taxi industry.”
“I think there’s a lot of Reagan Democrats waiting to vote for him,” said Chris Matthews during a January broadcast of his MSNBC show Hardball. “I think Pennsylvania might well be in play if he’s the nominee because he’s unpredictable.”
Because Trump isn’t a doctrinaire conservative—because he appeals on emotion and not policy—the theory is that he can win white working-class Democrats and other disaffected voters in the Democratic coalition. Trump, incidentally, agrees. “I have a chance of winning New York. You know, you look at these politicians [and] they always talk about the six states—you’ve got to win this one, that one. You have to win Ohio, you have to win Florida,” he said last month. ”I can change the game because I really have a chance of New York, I’m going to win Virginia. I’m going to win Michigan, as an example.”
But there’s a big problem with this theory, which also underlies a cottage industry of fan fiction about the presidential election: There’s no evidence. At this stage of the election, there is nothing that points to any Democratic support or enthusiasm for Trump. Instead, it’s just the opposite. Trump is deeply unpopular with Democratic voters. Even white ones.
[center]
[/center]
Donald Trump is wily, unpredictable, unprincipled, and opportunistic. And for some observers, this makes him a formidable prospect in a general election. “To be successful as a Republican candidate you have to be the equivalent of a neutron bomb,” said Republican strategist Steve Schmidt to the Washington Post. “He’s a neutron bomb. Donald Trump has been disruptive in the way Uber has been disruptive in the taxi industry.”
“I think there’s a lot of Reagan Democrats waiting to vote for him,” said Chris Matthews during a January broadcast of his MSNBC show Hardball. “I think Pennsylvania might well be in play if he’s the nominee because he’s unpredictable.”
Because Trump isn’t a doctrinaire conservative—because he appeals on emotion and not policy—the theory is that he can win white working-class Democrats and other disaffected voters in the Democratic coalition. Trump, incidentally, agrees. “I have a chance of winning New York. You know, you look at these politicians [and] they always talk about the six states—you’ve got to win this one, that one. You have to win Ohio, you have to win Florida,” he said last month. ”I can change the game because I really have a chance of New York, I’m going to win Virginia. I’m going to win Michigan, as an example.”
But there’s a big problem with this theory, which also underlies a cottage industry of fan fiction about the presidential election: There’s no evidence. At this stage of the election, there is nothing that points to any Democratic support or enthusiasm for Trump. Instead, it’s just the opposite. Trump is deeply unpopular with Democratic voters. Even white ones.
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If that's true, why are unions so progressive?